8/11/14

Morning Report – August 11th – Chris Young, Noah Syndergaard, Jeurys Familia, September Call-Ups



Chris Young ‏@CY24_7 
Thank you to those with the positive messages. Appreciate the love and support. #KeepPushing




The Mets have had 24 walk-off losses since the beginning of the 2013 season.



  

                        Frank Viola - “He gets to minor league ball, and he has no idea who he is as a pitcher. He gets in trouble, he goes to his 97-mph fastball. It worked in low-A, it worked in high-A, it worked in Double-A, but guess what? It doesn’t work in Triple-A.”

I’ve tried a number of times to explain what it is like going from one level to the next, but this is about the best explanation I’ve read.

What's more obvious every day is the fact that your 'young' pitchers that have showed the ability to dominate at the MLB level are Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler.

Syndergaard is a couple of years younger and the safe route would be to bring back two from Colon, Gee, and Niese and let Thor return to AAA, where ever that's going to be.

Reality tells me that every team that Alderson approachs for either a shortstop of left fielder will demand either deGrom, Wheeler, or Syndergaard.

My number one trading chip is the guy I don't know... Thor.



September arrived on Friday for the New York Mets. No one had to make any announcement that the season was over and the direction of the team would be 2015 from that moment on. All you had to do was listen to Terry Collins talk about ‘the kids’ who were going to be inserted into the lineup.

It now becomes painfully obvious that Collins and Sandy Alderson were going to stay with the ‘old’ 25-man squad as long as they thought they had an outside chance for either a wild card slot or the division title. That was erased with the Washington series which ‘features’ just more sub-standard hitting from the same crew that all seems to hit around .230.

So, we’re going to clean out Las Vegas of any potential outfield bats (Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Matt den Dekker), play Wilmer Flores as the starting shortstop, and allow Lucas Duda to hit against left hand pitching.

And that’s about it folks. I wish I could tell you that we have some ex-Cuban al-star that just hit 40 home runs in the PCL, but we don’t. This is about the extent of the major league ready talent in the organization and, frankly, they all may just eventually turn out to be future utility players. Excluding Duda, I don’t see much potential for more power here, but they’ll all now have two months to show us what they can accomplish playing on an almost daily basis.

Oh, and one last thought on Chris Young. I wish him well and thank him for his effort. It’s not like he tried to hit .200 or that someone forced him to take the seven plus million bucks for less than a year. My hopes are that he saved some because I don’t see him getting this kind of money again out of this sport.



Fangraphs on Jeurys Familia –

            On the season, Jeurys Familia has a 1.89 ERA (3.00 FIP) and 1.18 WHIP. He has just a 20% strikeout rate despite an average fastball topping 96 mph and an altogether too high 10% walk rate. But over the last month, few relievers have been as dominant as the late-inning Met reliever. In his last 12 games he’s thrown 11 innings, given up just five hits, giving up one run and striking out eight.

The knock on Familia is his wildness, however, and over the last month he’s also had a 12.5% walk rate and xFIP pegs him at something closer to 4.00. But if you’re digging deep on holds, he’s managed to register five of them out of those 12 outings. He started the season appearing mostly in the sixth and seventh innings but since the beginning of July, he’s been used almost exclusively to set up Jenrry Mejia. And heck, if you’re looking to snipe some saves, Mejia is dealing with some kind of calf issue, so it might be worthwhile to stash Familia anyway.

Mack – I love seeing national guys write about Familia. He’s come a long way. I still think the Mets will have five potential back end relievers on opening day 2015… Bobby Parnell. Vic Black, Rafael Montero, Mejia, and Familia… which would open discussions as a potential trade chip to come out of this bunch.

Fangraphs makes it sound like Familia is a wild man, but this is a guy that reduced his BB/9 from 6.8 in 2013 to 3.6 this season. He has also produced a 1.0 WAR this season.



The roster changes this past week have made me look back over the minor league rosters and try and figure out who the September call-ups will be. The entire 40-man roster will be eligible to head to Queens, though I don’t expect everyone will be promoted.

Bat wise, there isn’t that much left. Eligible are outfielders Andrew Brown and Cesar Puello, infielders Wilfredo Tovar and Josh Satin, and catchers Juan Centeno and Taylor Teagarden.

Pitcher wise. Gonzalez Germen, Erik Goeddel, Steven Matz, Rafael Montero, and Jeff Walters are available.


 Minor Notes –


            GCL SP Adrien Almeida continued his dominance of the GCL League on Friday: 5.0-IP, 0-R, 1-H, 5-K, 2-BB, 1.97… Daniel Murphy is .306/.346/.438 with 95 R, 205 H, 44 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 75 RBI, & 22 SB over his last 162 games… Jenrry Mejia’s curveball slash line: .375-.412-.438, thrown 131X… opposing batters are hitting .164 off of Zack Wheeler's curveball… 

21 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Another great update, Mack. I really think yours are the best of all the blog sites in terms of information and insight. Your efforts are truly appreciated by me.

I have been on a Matt den Dekker crusade, and watched his at bats yesterday. Just one game, but I am VERY optimistic. 5 at bats, no strikeouts, 2 hits and would have had a 3rd if Revere had not pulled a "Lagares" on a 400 foot liner he hit. His batting stance is drastically different than early in the season (they showed a side by side on TV screen yesterday), and Matt with these changes may very well have reinvented himself.

He only changed his stance after his last demotion, and he hit just .260 pre-demotion in AAA, but a drastically higher .405 post-demotion in 45 games. The kid in me is hoping for very big things from the reengineered Matt for the remainder of the season.

Flores also had a hit and a long drive out. I think the revamped offense may actually produce real dividends for this team.

Michael S. said...

Great point about MDD Thomas. He hit just about every ball hard yesterday. Looks like a totally different player.

Unknown said...

I am happy they are playing the kids, it's a month later than it should of happened. I especially love that Flores is finally starting, but if yesterday was a meaningful game they would have put in Tejada for the last few innings for defensive purposes.
I think we are 11 in draft order right now, so hopefully we get down to at least number 10 so it's a protected pick.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how the Qualifying Offers will work this year after Drew and Morales turned them down and sat for a few months. lots of teams extended the offers because they were sure players would decline and go FA, but there may be a few more that would take it instead of risking a Drew/Morales or even Nelson Cruz, who all didn't get the long term offers they were sure would come. Teams may be a bit more careful to just throw them out there to players that once would have certainly turned them down...like Jed Lowrie. the As cant afford to have him accept $14M

The Closer said...

John. Technically we're #12 by just a 1/2 behind the White Sox, but if we end up tying with them, they would get the pick since it's based on last years record, in which they were the 4th worst. At this point, we need to root for Philly, San Diego, Minnesota, Boston and the White Sox to win, while we lose just enough to finish in 11th worst record securing a protected pick.

Apparently, MLB changed the ruling since the Astros didnt sign Aiken, the rest of the league isn't penalized, a la the Michael Bourn situation a few years back, which actually worked out in our favor.

Most people don't think it matters since no one expects the Mets to target Hanley, Cruz, Cabrera, etc, but at least it takes away the excuse as to why they aren't targeting them and could force us into the conversation, who knows?

Dallas said...

John, we would need to be the 9th worse team to get a protected pick. Astros didnt sign their first round pick.

Anonymous said...

@Dallas

Negative.....draft rules have changed for this season.

Now the draft picks of the 10 lowest winning % teams are protected instead of the Top 10 picks.

Reese Kaplan said...

@Dallas Hope is not lost. While we may be a month or more late in playing the kids, we do still have the Collins factor which is good for several losses.

bgreg98180 said...

Unfortunately I fear one of those losses could be someone like Mejia.
It makes no sense to have an injured young pitcher pitching. It's written about all the time that any injury on a pitcher could lead them to altering their mechanics. Those altered mechanics can put strain on their arm in ways that are harmful. Add to that the facts Mejia has a history of injury, he doesn't have a stress free delivery, and the fact the Mets are just playing out the season. It just isn't worth the risk.
Alderson & Collins are demonstrating another example of poor decision making that proves neither are in the best interest in the future of the Mets.

Tom Brennan said...

I agree that Jennry probably s/b shut down. He is clearly the type to want to go out there, and if he could hurt his arm compensating, definitely shut him down and do the hernia surgery.

Like anything else, even if not impacting his arm, a hernia would in itself likely get worse if not addressed timely. Goal s/b to get everyone healthy and ready for a run in 2015.

Steve from Norfolk said...

I'm sorry - I guess I'm an optimist. Wouldn't it be interesting if MDD, Soup, Flores, and Duda led us to the promised land??? Our hitting just got a lot better - we're only 8 back. It could happen!!!!

Reese Kaplan said...

That's a double edged sword, Steve. If the Mets do somehow pull off a miracle and hit .500 (to say nothing of the post-season aspirations) it may lead not to Collins' well-deserved dismissal but yet another inexplicable contract extension. I'll take another losing season if it ushers him out the door and gets us someone less obstinate when we're ready to contend next year.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Reese -

Thay's why Bob Geren is there - to take TC's place if they have to fire him for PR reasons. Our best shot is if Geren doesn't want to be SA's yes man and Teufel gets the job. I think Teufel might be pretty good at the job.

bgreg98180 said...

Just letting Collins go isn't enough. Unless Alderson is gone as well, he will just look for another "good soldier" puppet manager to take his place. Alderson's decisions, for example allowing an injured Mejia pitch, are more destructive than even Collins poor decisions when it comes to the present and future of the Mets.

Anonymous said...

fellas.....playoffs is still not outside the realm of crazy possibility.

The club still has 26 games against the NL East and are 8 games behind at the moment.

Over the past 15 games against NL East opponents they have won 66% of them (10 of 15).

If they can maintain that rate that would be 17-9 vs NL East opponents or a....(wait for it).....8 game positive flow.

Unknown said...

It's nice to be optimistic but we have about a 5-10% chance of making it to the playoffs. I also hate rooting against my team, but I am rooting for a better protected pick.
Hopefully the coupons surprise us and bring the payroll to at least $120 mil, and then we can let out dynasty team donuts thing (with a protected pick).

bgreg98180 said...

Doesn't anyone else have a problem with the fact that fans have had to root for a better protected draft pick for each of the past 5 years (or is it 6 years)?
Enough is enough already.
The Mets need to make sure this is the absolute LAST year the team performs in the lowest half of the league.
Alderson's slow to act and minimal risk approach combined with his ego fed arrogance also keeps him from admitting to and adjusting to mistakes in personnel decisions. This combination added to the poor track record of building contending major league teams should not create a comfortable feeling in Mets fans

Dallas said...

Glad they fixed the first 10 spots to be the worst 10 teams instead.

So why isnt Hanley Ramirez getting more attention as a possible SS option? He isnt Tulo but he also wont cost you your top prospects. While expensive he is probably cheaper than Tulo as well. He is only 30 and wont be 31 until December. He has been a little hurt the last couple of years but so has Tulo.

Anonymous said...

A) Hanley will probably have draft pick compensation attached to him.

B) He is probably going to command a $18m/yr + salary

C) He is a poor defensive SS that should probably be moved to 3B at this point of his career.

Bill Metsiac said...

We're still (believe it or not) within striking distance (4 games? ) of 2nd place. If we can get that, I'd still consider this a successful season.

I still have hope for that. What I'm losing all hope for, though, is seeing a positive post about the team from my friend "Gloom and Doom" Reese. I Doubt that I have enough years left in my life to see that. ;)

Dallas said...

Sure Hanley will have draft pick compensation. However that will be significantly less than what they will ask for Tulo.

18 mil/yr is less than Tulo right?

He may not be great defensively but he is certainly adequate.

Just seems like a good alternative to me. I like the idea of keeping our young pitching that we spent the last 4 years cultivating. Thankfully we got good outings (after some stinkers) from Niese, Gee and Colon so hopefully that continues and ups their value.