8/16/14

Reese Kaplan - Who On the Mets Would You Want?


 It’s a good way to pass the time during the 4th consecutive Collins Catastrophic Collapse (C3) to think about what we would do if we had the opportunity to improve the roster to address the shortcomings that were so painfully present during the series with the Nationals.  In case you were out getting a root canal or something equally more pleasant than seeing that debacle, the Mets didn’t score a single run off of the starting pitchers for the Nationals.

Now to be fair, they’re not exactly chopped liver, either.  Gio Gonzalez, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg are about as intimidating a pitching trio you’ll find this side of Detroit.  To judge the team by its ability to score runs off some of the game’s finest is unfair.  However, they are not exactly setting the world afire against mere mortal pitchers, either.  They’re currently 24th of 30 teams in MLB with 463 runs scored in 120 games, an average of 3.83 runs per game.  By contrast, the MLB leading Oakland A’s fare more than a full run better.

It seems obvious to pretty much anyone enduring these games that while the pitching is generally better than average, the offense needs to improve significantly.  Some have decried my criticism of role players who shouldn’t be in the lineup when the real culprits are the two veteran hitters – David Wright and Curtis Granderson – both delivering far less than was envisioned to justify their fat paychecks.  I’m quick to point out that while you’re more-or-less stuck with this less-than-dynamic-duo for the balance of their contracts, you do have flexibility in other areas to experiment with people who might perform at a higher level.  Unfortunately the manager was very slow on the uptake and persisted in trotting out subpar players somehow thinking a switch would magically flip in their heads or bodies to make them perform significantly better.

Around the All-Star break we saw a first gesture (albeit a futile one) by making Chris Young a more-or-less regular in the lineup and returning Eric Young, Jr. and Bobby Abreu to their more appropriate roles on the bench.  Later came the big days when they cut ties with Abreu and Chris Young, bringing up Matt den Dekker to play against righties and reassigning the 2013/2014 below-replacement-level Ruben Tejada to the bench to see whether Wilmer Flores could justify his starting role with his bat.  Thus far the team is getting mixed results, but you see glimpses – the couple of multi-hit games from them and some highlight reel defense from den Dekker.

There’s a prevailing pessimism that a late surge by either or both could curtail any plans to add to the offense during the off season.  While that cynicism is probably justifiable, the offense should improve if Wright and Granderson can get back to some semblance of their former glory.  Further development of Travis d’Arnaud and Juan Lagares might also bolster run production. 

So if you were running the 29 other clubs right now, who on the Mets would you find appealing from a pure talent, projected talent or contractual basis to add to your team?  It’s been the conventional thinking that after building a 9-10 man rotation for 2015, it’s that strength from which Sandy Alderson will trade to improve the team.   What about the ineffectual offense?  Is any of it trade-worthy for other teams?

1B
Wow, if ever there was a sell high opportunity, it would be Lucas Duda’s breakout season with the club.  He’s tallying new highs in HRs, RBIs, OBP and even starting to look a little less lost against lefties.  If he turned in a carbon copy of his production this year again in 2015, most people would likely sign on the dotted line to accept that right now.  The question is whether or not it’s sustainable.  If you think it is, then you’ve got a solution for the 1st base dilemma for the foreseeable future.  Even if his salary doubles in arbitration, he’s a bargain, making far less than the currently injured Bobby Parnell.  While it’s probably too far-fetched to ponder it, what would he net in return should someone come knocking on your door looking for the big guy?  Unfortunately the Mets do not have a good backup plan for Duda at 1B, so this move is highly unlikely to happen.

2B
There’s nothing much new to say here.  Murphy, for all his flaws, is arguably your best player, yet he’s also one pricing himself out of the comfort range of the necessarily frugal Wilpons.  Seeing him get an open market value of about 4 years/$40 million would not be unreasonable, but with Wilmer Flores, Matt Reynolds, Danny Muño and Dilson Herrera behind him on the depth chart, he’s someone who might be more valuable in trade.  The recipient gets a final year of salary arbitration and can then negotiate their best deal.  Allegedly Alderson’s asking price last time around for Murphy was already considered quite high.  Now it will become even higher given his chance to lead the league in hits.  Still, there are many teams with REAL payroll flexibility who need second basemen (or third basemen) for whom Murphy would be a good fit.

SS
Next!

3B
Immovable contract.

C
Travis d’Arnaud actually ranks at or near the bottom in many defensive catching statistics, but his bat has been sound (to the tune of .270 since his return).  With Kevin Plawecki behind him in the minors it’s not beyond the realm of possibility for one of them to be packaged to another team (more likely Plawecki since d’Arnaud has more power). 

LF
Matt den Dekker may be a late bloomer and capable of being a solid player.  His hold on the position is tenuous at best, but to his good fortune there’s absolutely no one in AAA on his heels.  Next year they may flip-flop he and Granderson if the outfield picture doesn’t change to take advantage of his superior arm vs. what Granderson provides. 

CF
Even more heresy than considering Duda as a trade chip would be to consider Juan Lagares.  If Matt den Dekker shows he’s capable of 10-15 HRs and a .270 or so batting average, he’s not a bad consolation prize to roam CF if someone wants to enjoy the other human highlight reel on a nightly basis.  Of course, this move only makes sense if you’ve already secured the services of a slugger to play the now-vacant corner outfield position.  It’s some outside-the-box thinking but Lagares probably has some high value to a team that already has capable offense in the corners. Right here within the division are examples of both the Nationals and Phillies paying the price to get solid glove men in Denard Span and Ben Revere.

RF
The other immovable contract. 

So there you have it.  Murphy is a possible trade candidate and Juan Lagares would be as well if den Dekker can show six weeks of solid offensive production.  After that, it’s back to the pitching and the minor league offensive prospects whose value is suspect until proven.  Free agency is not the current Mets' style, particularly after recent disasters like Jason Bay, Frank Francisco, Chris Young and Curtis Granderson.  International free agents also need not apply.  

6 comments:

Ernest Dove said...

As much as we love talking about prospects, in the end, they are STILL just that......prospects..
That being said, I assume (based on contracts) that Duda Lagares and murph are other teams would want most on this team.....
And if its me, im keeping all of them (unless Wilmer still sucks at short, but goes on absolute fire offensively the last month of season)

I believe that Duda is for real. ..not sure if he will reach 40 homers, but I have no problem watching him try for the next few years (last time I checked, dom smith was a teenager, so no point in mentioning him ad replacement.

Im just not sure if den dekker can ever convince me that he is a better overall option then Lagares (who's younger then DD)

Murph is about to come close to 200 hits. ...say what u want about defense and running mistakes.....200 hits is 200 hits......oh, and last time I checked, the last met with a lot of hits (Reyes) hasn't exactly had that production matched by his replacements, has he......

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

Duda is just fine at 1B and Murphy is an all star...

David is David, Lagares may be the best defensive CF in the league and Grandy's contract prevents him from leaving.

Lastly, I belive d'Arnaud is the real deal...

what's left?

Wow... LF and SS...

Reese Kaplan said...

As I concluded, you really only have Murphy and Lagares as trade bait from the offensive side of things. I don't know about den Dekker either, but I was perfectly fine playing Lagares last year in a .250 or so batting average range. I think den Dekker could deliver that as well and give you upper echelon defense. How much would Lagares net you on the open market? Not that the Dodgers need outfielders, but would it get you someone as appealing as Joc Pederon (another team's equivalent)?

Tom Brennan said...

Bottom line I get from my brother...add hitting. He is a life long Met fan and hates watching them. So while I support giving guys like Flores, Dekker and Reynolds a good chance to show what they can do, more offense next year is non-negotiable. Easiest way to start is to move the fences in...get more HRs and doubles out of your guys at minimal cost. Add at least one big, healthy bat. LF or SS. Minimum 100 more runs needed next year. 150 would be better.

Anonymous said...

4th consecutive Collins collapse? Don't be ridiculous, this and has been a flawed team for the past 4 years and the best manager would have had little impact on the results. It is not like this team was on the cusp of the playoffs and Collins somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. There is plenty of blame to go around, so to characterize this as all Collins fault is nuts. You actually contradict yourself shortly after by labeling the Wilpons as frugal, so what do you expect from Terry is ownership is not providing resources to win? So, for the past 4 years, a different manager would have delivered these teams to the playoffs? Are you even watching the games? They cannot score runs and have not all year, so I don't even know how this is a collapse. A true follows was when they had talented teams and a division lead that they puked up. This has just been a bad year with bad players and yes a bad manager, but to label it a Collins collapse is just inaccurate. I don't want him as manager, but I can be impartial enough to see that this is not the responsibility of one man. That aside, Murphy is probably the only movable piece that may bring some return, but probably not much, which is the same reason he shouldn't get 4/40 because he is just not that good of an all around player. Would he have made the All Star team if the Mets didn't have to have a rep? I guess maybe, but I wouldn't describe him as an All Star 2B, just a 2B who made an All Star team. Big difference

Bill Metsiac said...

I don't know what your definition of "collapse" is, but since the break the record is 13-14! And inthe final 10 games before that, they were 8-2! That's 21-15 in the last 36, and 6 of the losses were vs the top team in the division.

I'll take that kind of "collapse" any time.

As for what happens to 1B in the unlikely event of an ill-advised Duda trade, the best scenario within the system would be moving Murphy there and choosing from Flores, Herrera and Reynolds at 2B. But I'd rather keep the Dude.