12/4/14

Tom Brennan - MAJORING ON THE MINORS - 2010 DRAFT STATUS UPDATE

12 comments

2010 METS DRAFT – HEY, MAN, HOW ARE THEY DOING?
by Tom Brennan

Watching the success of players in a particular Mets' draft year is like watching cement dry.  It cures and firms up slowly. 
In the NBA, in contrast, hot draft prospects are ready to contribute right from day 1 in many cases.  In the concrete world of baseball, a “Nimmo cement block” takes years to solidify. 

Some only watch when a Mets' prospect is touted, is hot.

Not me.  I like to watch cement cure.  Boring, I know.  But that’s me.

Which brings us to the past 5 years' drafts.  How much real cement did Sandy load up on?  How well is the drying process going?  And is the cement turning into that crappy, crumbly stuff or real quality hardened stuff?

Let's find out, with a look at all Mets' signed draftees in 2010 and working our way up to 2014.  (I found earlier drafts bleak, with rare exceptions like Steve Matz in 2009, and Lucas Duda in the 7th round in 2007, so let’s start at 2010).


2010 brought us none other than the great Matt Harvey.  Stop right there, and you'd rate it great cement.
And oh there is a guy at # 9 who won Rookie of the Year the other day.  And #5 (Dekker) and #10 (Morris) are two of my running favorites.  And #30 (Edgin) is no slouch.

Quite a draft year! A++.

But let's examine the whole batch - here we go (my rating index is below the table):

Name
Pos
B/T
Ht
Wt
DOB
Rd
Rating
Comments
RHP
R / R
6' 4"
215
03/27/1989
1
1
I need say nothing about Matt, except let’s get 2015 started. I give him 300 innings limit in 2015! Wait, make that 400.  I hear the guy is good!
C
R / R
6' 2"
220
07/31/1989
3
Retired
Decent power, lousy average, tons of K’s.  Next.
CF
R / R
6' 3"
235
05/01/1989
4
3-4
Career has sputtered, due to decent power, lousy average, tons of K’s.  Just .240 after his inaugural Cyclones season.  At best a future platoon vs lefties
CF
L / L
6' 1"
210
08/10/1987
5
2
Unlike Cory, Matt keeps figuring out how to improve.  Hit .370 in 2nd half of 2014 (AAA & majors). He sneaks up on you, and quiets the naysayers.
RHP
R / R
6' 2"
185
07/11/1988
6
3-4
Pitches well up to AA, awful in AAA.  His challenge is to fix AAA. Pen piece somewhere?
RHP
R / R
6' 3"
210
11/06/1987
7
3
Great 2013 in AA, then a horrific 2014 culminating in TJ surgery.  Will Jeff astound us in 2015?  I see more of a AAAA.
RHP
R / R
6' 3"
185
08/14/1990
8
Retired
20 innings in 2011, 3-1, 2.25, and promptly disappeared.
RHP
L / R
6' 4"
180
06/19/1988
9
ROY
Slowed early in his career by TJ surgery, he went from the outhouse to the penthouse in 2014.  If you don’t know him, Google him.  I’m busy.
RHP
R / R
6' 1"
170
11/14/1992
1
I’m going out on a limb with Akeel and giving him a #1 rating, after being picked fans’ choice for minor league reliever in all of baseball.  In 2014, earned runs in only 2 games, hitters hit .103, and 14Kss per 9.
LHP
L / L
6' 3"
205
01/14/1989
3-4
Major regression for this lefty reliever in 2014 in AA. 1.71 AA ERA in 2013, 6.07 in AA in 2014.  Can he turn it around in 2015?
RHP
R / R
6' 2"
190
12/10/1988
Released
4 years pitching (missed 2011) and his #’s look great (14-6, 3.25, 183 inn, 204 Ks), except his highest level is St Lucie.
3B
R / R
6' 2"
180
12/15/1988
Retired
A little over 1000 plate appearances yielded .237. Not good enough to continue.
2B
L / R
6' 1"
220
04/30/1989
Retired
Sputtered in 2011 A ball (.198)
CF
R / R
6' 0"
190
02/19/1989
Retired
Another sputterer (.225)
RHP
R / R
6' 3"
190
08/27/1988
Released
Very solid #s in 2010-12, but higher minor struggles in 2013 and 2014 led to his shake out. 20-21, 3.68 in 323 innings.
RHP
R / R
6' 4"
210
11/25/1988
Retired
Can always brag to the kids that he was 3-1 in his lone year (’11)
RHP
R / R
6' 3"
185
07/02/1987
Retired
A nice 2010 (2-3, 2.44) and arrivederci.  Went into the family’s Bread business??
RHP
R / R
6' 3"
220
03/15/1988
Retired
Another sputterer (1-2, 6.22)
1B
L / R
6' 4"
205
02/29/1988
Retired
Played in 2010 and 2011.  .238 with 15 homers.  Nice try.
SS
R / R
6' 1"
180
07/28/1987
Retired
Hit the A ball ceiling 2010-12. .237/.305/.353.
RHP
R / R
6' 3"
190
12/20/1988
3
A hit in the 24th round. Major league debut in Sept 2014.  Not an outstanding minor league career #’s wise (20-21, 4.02, 8 K’s per 9, 155 walks in 385 inn), but Jake deGrom’s minor #s were kind of similar, so let’s see
RHP
R / R
6' 4"
225
02/03/1987
Retired
Another long-retired guy who went out on top: 3-1, 4.68
SS
S / R
6' 2"
200
10/06/1987
Retired
We’ve heard “that dog don’t hunt.” In Butler’s case, “that Jet don’t fly no more.” .216 career
RHP
R / R
6' 4"
215
07/21/1987
Retired
Another guy who went out on top in 2011: 8-5, 3.35, K per inn.
LHP
R / L
6' 4"
205
06/06/1988
Retired
Another guy who went out with OK #’s:  2-5, 3.48, 61K in 54 inn.
LHP
R / L
6' 1"
180
06/26/1988
Released
In the “what more could I possibly do” category, Bennett finished up in AA, career 15-4, 2.38, 207 Ks/219 inn, 1.1 WHIP
LHP
R / L
6' 1"
245
12/17/1986
2
Josh was a fine minor league reliever overall who defied 30th round odds and is 3-2, 3.20 in 115 major league games as a Mets LOOGY.  Pretty sweet.
RHP
R / R
6' 1"
195
09/16/1987
Retired
Broken record: another winner. 5-2, 3.25, 61 inn. Just 33 Ks.
C
R / R
6' 3"
210
12/29/1986
Retired
.167 in 78 AB’s.  Not happening.
RHP
R / R
5' 11"
200
08/27/1988
Released
Tell these guys, DON’T WIN!
Career 8-6, 4.17, 152Ks in 142 inn. Anthony Young had right idea: lose - and pitch in majors!
2B
R / R
6' 1"
190
06/12/1988
Retired
Nice 2010, then barely played in 2011: .294/.347/.383 career
CF
R / R
6' 3"
210
10/21/1987
Retired
.192 career – says it all.
SS
R / R
5' 10"
185
12/08/1990
Retired
.228/.286/.298 in 127 Pas

An interesting anomaly is that TWELVE pitchers from the Class of 2010 listed as retired/released (essentially the same thing), namely McDowell, Mitchell, Frazer, Bennett, Carnevale, Pinera, Sheppard, Kountis, Birdwell, Weldon, Gould, and Winnick, had a combined win-loss record of 84-57!!  (.595 winning %)

It has been said, “Winning’s not the only thing, it’s everything.” 

TELL IT TO THESE WINNERS!  They just might disagree!


Mack stated in that regard that “One thing I have learned getting to know these guys in the lower levels: most of them retire making their own decision to get on with their lives, go back to college, take a real job, make real money, etc.  They can read the tea leaves and figure out they really don't have a chance to even make the $500,000 minimum major league salary someday, so they quietly move on in the off season.” 

That’s got to be a tough decision to have to make.
RATING SCALE:

1 – future impact major leaguer and performing at a high level

2 – future major leaguer – unclear if he will be an impact player

3 – decent shot at making it to the big enchilada in some capacity

4 – long shot to make the majors

5 – extremely long shot to make the majors

ROY – Rookie of the Year, baby

Have a great day.  Oh, and 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 draft summaries are coming in the days ahead.  Be sure to check them out.

12 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Nice job on this.

These are the kind of posts that make this site the best on the web.

Thomas Brennan said...

Thanks,Mack. I thank you, and my cement truck thanks you!

It was a vintage draft year, 2010.

Reese Kaplan said...

The Mets seem to be an organization that values character more than talent when making their selections.

It's funny, but I've seen some non-choirboys like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Hamilton sign big deals and one for Melky Cabrera should be inked soon.

Somehow character issues don't matter when you're considered value-priced as was the case of Marlon Byrd or arguably Bartolo Colon who became a Met only due to Matt Harvey's injury.

Mack Ade said...

Character is a VERY BIG thing on draft day but becomes far less important after you have produced an 800+ OPS in the Bigs

Lew Rhodes said...

Character is important, but talent is also - and Byrd was a one time offender who never had any prior issues - so I don't think character was ever an issue with him.

Tom - Great piece.

So, if Harvey and deGrom fulfill our (very lofty) expectations, this has to be the best Mets' draft of all time

Two ace pitchers, potentially 3 average to above bullpen arms and a very solid 4th OFer who could start on mos teams due to his defense alone

Thomas Brennan said...

Lew

I am hoping that besides two Cy Young level guys like Harvey and DeG, we'll see by mid-2016 that we conclusively have 3 more above-average guys in Morris, Dekker, and Edgin. It was some 2010 draft.

Thomas Brennan said...

I will add on character that I still think this organization is too character-issue-averse, Gary Sheffield being the biggest pass I can recall of a "character" guy who tore it up with the team he signed with instead.

I was real happy they saw Byrd tear up the Mexican winter league between 2012 and 2013 and decided to take a flyer on him. We get production and then Black and Herrera out of it? Great time to not go holier-than-thou and moving forward to ignore character flaw of a PED sort and sign Byrd.

Lew Rhodes said...

Tom -

You made me do research

Mets have had only 4 drafts where two players from that draft accumulated 10 WAR for the Mets:

1977
1979
1982
1983

The 2005 draft looked promising for a bit - that one gave us Pelfrey, Niese, Parnell, and Thole.

So, I think 2010 is going to easily be the best ever for the Mets.

Here is what's crazy - the players the Mets drafted and didn't sign who were later drafted higher. Check out this list, many of these I had NO IDEA were ever initially drafted by the Mets:

Roger Clemens
Ron Cey
John Tudor (tortured the Mets in 1985)
Matt Williams
Rafael Palmeiro
John Wettland
John Olerud
Scott Erikson
Darin Erstad
Aaron Rowand
Jeremy Guthrie
David DeJesus

That is quite a line-up of high school draftees who eventually became high round draftees and successful ML players

Lew Rhodes said...

Also discovered that in 1980 the Mets first 3 draft picks:

Strawberry
Billy Beane - knew they drafted him, didn't realize so high
John Gibbons

Also - I think the best lowest pick the Mets ever made was Izzy - a 44th Round pick


Thomas Brennan said...

Mack, I re-read your post - and this is THE best Mets' site on the web!

Lew, those drafts were strong for sure, but 2010's rocks.

All those guys you mention, I presume, were more along the lines of fishing picks, where Mets did not make a serious enough bid for a kid who upped his value by passing and re-entering the draft later. That seem right to you?

Thanks for your comments.

jd said...

Great draft! Should we accredit it to Riçco since he was said to be overseeing it? Not Sandy he wasnt there yet.

Thomas Brennan said...

Very good observation on Ricco, not Sandy, for 2010 draft, JD.

And Lew, you had to bring up Tudor torturing the Mets? It wasn't only in 1985 but that year in particular, i recall him being something like 1-7 at Memorial Day and 19-1 from June on, so the Mets win 98 games and miss the playoffs due to Tudor. Painful.

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