2010
METS DRAFT – HEY, MAN, HOW ARE THEY DOING?
by Tom Brennan
Watching
the success of players in a particular Mets' draft year is like watching cement
dry. It cures and firms up slowly.
In the NBA, in contrast, hot
draft prospects are ready to contribute right from day 1 in many cases.
In the concrete world of baseball, a “Nimmo cement block” takes years to
solidify.
Some
only watch when a Mets' prospect is touted, is hot.
Not me. I like to watch cement cure. Boring, I know. But that’s me.
Which brings us to the past 5 years' drafts. How much real cement did Sandy load up on? How well is the drying process going? And is the cement turning into that crappy, crumbly stuff or real quality hardened stuff?
Let's find out, with a look at all Mets' signed draftees in 2010 and working our way up to 2014. (I found earlier drafts bleak, with rare exceptions like Steve Matz in 2009, and Lucas Duda in the 7th round in 2007, so let’s start at 2010).
Not me. I like to watch cement cure. Boring, I know. But that’s me.
Which brings us to the past 5 years' drafts. How much real cement did Sandy load up on? How well is the drying process going? And is the cement turning into that crappy, crumbly stuff or real quality hardened stuff?
Let's find out, with a look at all Mets' signed draftees in 2010 and working our way up to 2014. (I found earlier drafts bleak, with rare exceptions like Steve Matz in 2009, and Lucas Duda in the 7th round in 2007, so let’s start at 2010).
2010 brought us none other than the great Matt Harvey. Stop right there,
and you'd rate it great cement.
And oh there is a guy at # 9 who won Rookie of
the Year the other day. And #5 (Dekker) and #10
(Morris) are two of my running favorites. And #30 (Edgin) is no slouch.
Quite a draft year! A++.
But
let's examine the whole batch - here we go (my rating index is below the table):
Name
|
Pos
|
B/T
|
Ht
|
Wt
|
DOB
|
Rd
|
Rating
|
Comments
|
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 4"
|
215
|
03/27/1989
|
1
|
I need say
nothing about Matt, except let’s get 2015 started. I give him 300 innings
limit in 2015! Wait, make that 400. I
hear the guy is good!
|
||
C
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
220
|
07/31/1989
|
Retired
|
Decent
power, lousy average, tons of K’s.
Next.
|
||
CF
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
235
|
05/01/1989
|
3-4
|
Career has
sputtered, due to decent power, lousy average, tons of K’s. Just .240 after his inaugural Cyclones
season. At best a future platoon vs
lefties
|
||
CF
|
L / L
|
6' 1"
|
210
|
08/10/1987
|
2
|
Unlike
Cory, Matt keeps figuring out how to improve.
Hit .370 in 2nd half of 2014 (AAA & majors). He sneaks
up on you, and quiets the naysayers.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
185
|
07/11/1988
|
3-4
|
Pitches
well up to AA, awful in AAA. His
challenge is to fix AAA. Pen piece somewhere?
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
210
|
11/06/1987
|
3
|
Great 2013
in AA, then a horrific 2014 culminating in TJ surgery. Will Jeff astound us in 2015? I see more of a AAAA.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
185
|
08/14/1990
|
Retired
|
20 innings
in 2011, 3-1, 2.25, and promptly disappeared.
|
||
RHP
|
L / R
|
6' 4"
|
180
|
06/19/1988
|
ROY
|
Slowed
early in his career by TJ surgery, he went from the outhouse to the penthouse
in 2014. If you don’t know him, Google
him. I’m busy.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 1"
|
170
|
11/14/1992
|
1
|
I’m going
out on a limb with Akeel and giving him a #1 rating, after being picked fans’
choice for minor league reliever in all of baseball. In 2014, earned runs in only 2 games,
hitters hit .103, and 14Kss per 9.
|
||
LHP
|
L / L
|
6' 3"
|
205
|
01/14/1989
|
3-4
|
Major
regression for this lefty reliever in 2014 in AA. 1.71 AA ERA in 2013, 6.07
in AA in 2014. Can he turn it around
in 2015?
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
190
|
12/10/1988
|
Released
|
4 years
pitching (missed 2011) and his #’s look great (14-6, 3.25, 183 inn, 204 Ks),
except his highest level is St Lucie.
|
||
3B
|
R / R
|
6' 2"
|
180
|
12/15/1988
|
Retired
|
A little
over 1000 plate appearances yielded .237. Not good enough to continue.
|
||
2B
|
L / R
|
6' 1"
|
220
|
04/30/1989
|
Retired
|
Sputtered
in 2011 A ball (.198)
|
||
CF
|
R / R
|
6' 0"
|
190
|
02/19/1989
|
Retired
|
Another
sputterer (.225)
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
190
|
08/27/1988
|
Released
|
Very solid
#s in 2010-12, but higher minor struggles in 2013 and 2014 led to his shake
out. 20-21, 3.68 in 323 innings.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 4"
|
210
|
11/25/1988
|
Retired
|
Can always
brag to the kids that he was 3-1 in his lone year (’11)
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
185
|
07/02/1987
|
Retired
|
A nice 2010
(2-3, 2.44) and arrivederci. Went into
the family’s Bread business??
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
220
|
03/15/1988
|
Retired
|
Another
sputterer (1-2, 6.22)
|
||
1B
|
L / R
|
6' 4"
|
205
|
02/29/1988
|
Retired
|
Played in
2010 and 2011. .238 with 15 homers. Nice try.
|
||
SS
|
R / R
|
6' 1"
|
180
|
07/28/1987
|
Retired
|
Hit the A
ball ceiling 2010-12. .237/.305/.353.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
190
|
12/20/1988
|
3
|
A hit in
the 24th round. Major league debut in Sept 2014. Not an outstanding minor league career #’s
wise (20-21, 4.02, 8 K’s per 9, 155 walks in 385 inn), but Jake deGrom’s
minor #s were kind of similar, so let’s see
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 4"
|
225
|
02/03/1987
|
Retired
|
Another
long-retired guy who went out on top: 3-1, 4.68
|
||
SS
|
S / R
|
6' 2"
|
200
|
10/06/1987
|
Retired
|
We’ve heard
“that dog don’t hunt.” In Butler’s case, “that Jet don’t fly no more.” .216
career
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 4"
|
215
|
07/21/1987
|
Retired
|
Another guy
who went out on top in 2011: 8-5, 3.35, K per inn.
|
||
LHP
|
R / L
|
6' 4"
|
205
|
06/06/1988
|
Retired
|
Another guy
who went out with OK #’s: 2-5, 3.48, 61K
in 54 inn.
|
||
LHP
|
R / L
|
6' 1"
|
180
|
06/26/1988
|
Released
|
In the “what
more could I possibly do” category, Bennett finished up in AA, career 15-4,
2.38, 207 Ks/219 inn, 1.1 WHIP
|
||
LHP
|
R / L
|
6' 1"
|
245
|
12/17/1986
|
2
|
Josh was a
fine minor league reliever overall who defied 30th round odds and
is 3-2, 3.20 in 115 major league games as a Mets LOOGY. Pretty sweet.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
6' 1"
|
195
|
09/16/1987
|
Retired
|
Broken
record: another winner. 5-2, 3.25, 61 inn. Just 33 Ks.
|
||
C
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
210
|
12/29/1986
|
Retired
|
.167 in 78
AB’s. Not happening.
|
||
RHP
|
R / R
|
5' 11"
|
200
|
08/27/1988
|
Released
|
Tell these
guys, DON’T WIN!
Career 8-6,
4.17, 152Ks in 142 inn. Anthony Young had right idea: lose - and pitch in
majors!
|
||
2B
|
R / R
|
6' 1"
|
190
|
06/12/1988
|
Retired
|
Nice 2010,
then barely played in 2011: .294/.347/.383 career
|
||
CF
|
R / R
|
6' 3"
|
210
|
10/21/1987
|
Retired
|
.192 career
– says it all.
|
||
SS
|
R / R
|
5' 10"
|
185
|
12/08/1990
|
Retired
|
.228/.286/.298
in 127 Pas
|
An interesting anomaly is that TWELVE pitchers from
the Class of 2010 listed as retired/released (essentially the same thing),
namely McDowell, Mitchell, Frazer, Bennett, Carnevale, Pinera, Sheppard,
Kountis, Birdwell, Weldon, Gould, and Winnick, had a combined win-loss record
of 84-57!! (.595 winning %)
It has been said, “Winning’s not the only thing, it’s
everything.”
TELL IT TO THESE WINNERS!
They just might disagree!
Mack stated in that regard that “One thing I have learned getting to know these guys in the lower levels: most of them retire making their own decision to get on with their lives, go back to college, take a real job, make real money, etc. They can read the tea leaves and figure out they really don't have a chance to even make the $500,000 minimum major league salary someday, so they quietly move on in the off season.”
That’s got to be a tough decision to have to make.
RATING SCALE:
Mack stated in that regard that “One thing I have learned getting to know these guys in the lower levels: most of them retire making their own decision to get on with their lives, go back to college, take a real job, make real money, etc. They can read the tea leaves and figure out they really don't have a chance to even make the $500,000 minimum major league salary someday, so they quietly move on in the off season.”
That’s got to be a tough decision to have to make.
RATING SCALE:
1 – future impact major leaguer and performing at a high level
2 – future major leaguer – unclear if he will be an impact
player
3 – decent shot at making it to the big enchilada in some
capacity
4 – long shot to make the majors
5 – extremely long shot to make the majors
ROY – Rookie of the Year, baby
Have a great day. Oh,
and 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 draft summaries are coming in the days
ahead. Be sure to check them out.
12 comments:
Nice job on this.
These are the kind of posts that make this site the best on the web.
Thanks,Mack. I thank you, and my cement truck thanks you!
It was a vintage draft year, 2010.
The Mets seem to be an organization that values character more than talent when making their selections.
It's funny, but I've seen some non-choirboys like Hanley Ramirez and Josh Hamilton sign big deals and one for Melky Cabrera should be inked soon.
Somehow character issues don't matter when you're considered value-priced as was the case of Marlon Byrd or arguably Bartolo Colon who became a Met only due to Matt Harvey's injury.
Character is a VERY BIG thing on draft day but becomes far less important after you have produced an 800+ OPS in the Bigs
Character is important, but talent is also - and Byrd was a one time offender who never had any prior issues - so I don't think character was ever an issue with him.
Tom - Great piece.
So, if Harvey and deGrom fulfill our (very lofty) expectations, this has to be the best Mets' draft of all time
Two ace pitchers, potentially 3 average to above bullpen arms and a very solid 4th OFer who could start on mos teams due to his defense alone
Lew
I am hoping that besides two Cy Young level guys like Harvey and DeG, we'll see by mid-2016 that we conclusively have 3 more above-average guys in Morris, Dekker, and Edgin. It was some 2010 draft.
I will add on character that I still think this organization is too character-issue-averse, Gary Sheffield being the biggest pass I can recall of a "character" guy who tore it up with the team he signed with instead.
I was real happy they saw Byrd tear up the Mexican winter league between 2012 and 2013 and decided to take a flyer on him. We get production and then Black and Herrera out of it? Great time to not go holier-than-thou and moving forward to ignore character flaw of a PED sort and sign Byrd.
Tom -
You made me do research
Mets have had only 4 drafts where two players from that draft accumulated 10 WAR for the Mets:
1977
1979
1982
1983
The 2005 draft looked promising for a bit - that one gave us Pelfrey, Niese, Parnell, and Thole.
So, I think 2010 is going to easily be the best ever for the Mets.
Here is what's crazy - the players the Mets drafted and didn't sign who were later drafted higher. Check out this list, many of these I had NO IDEA were ever initially drafted by the Mets:
Roger Clemens
Ron Cey
John Tudor (tortured the Mets in 1985)
Matt Williams
Rafael Palmeiro
John Wettland
John Olerud
Scott Erikson
Darin Erstad
Aaron Rowand
Jeremy Guthrie
David DeJesus
That is quite a line-up of high school draftees who eventually became high round draftees and successful ML players
Also discovered that in 1980 the Mets first 3 draft picks:
Strawberry
Billy Beane - knew they drafted him, didn't realize so high
John Gibbons
Also - I think the best lowest pick the Mets ever made was Izzy - a 44th Round pick
Mack, I re-read your post - and this is THE best Mets' site on the web!
Lew, those drafts were strong for sure, but 2010's rocks.
All those guys you mention, I presume, were more along the lines of fishing picks, where Mets did not make a serious enough bid for a kid who upped his value by passing and re-entering the draft later. That seem right to you?
Thanks for your comments.
Great draft! Should we accredit it to Riçco since he was said to be overseeing it? Not Sandy he wasnt there yet.
Very good observation on Ricco, not Sandy, for 2010 draft, JD.
And Lew, you had to bring up Tudor torturing the Mets? It wasn't only in 1985 but that year in particular, i recall him being something like 1-7 at Memorial Day and 19-1 from June on, so the Mets win 98 games and miss the playoffs due to Tudor. Painful.
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