Dominic Smith - the slick fielding 21 year old first base prospect and former first round pick made steady progress in his AA debut in 2016.  He started fairly slowly, with just a .259 average and 4 homers throuh June 23, but then surged thereafter, finishing the season at .302 with 29 doubles, 14 homers, and 91 RBIs in 130 games overall. 

For a guy who played half of 2016 in AA as a 20 year old before his birthday in mid-June, pretty darned good, if not spectacular.

All of that got him to # 63 in a recent Top 100 MLB prospect ranking, which makes him one of two Mets in the MLB top 100, but I wish he were higher in that list.  The lower level of homers is deflating his ranking, IMO.

Smith finally added some much-speculated about home run results in 2016.  14 dingers is still not great for a 1B, but I think that number will increase this year and carry over to 2018, when he most likely is the New York Mets' inexpensive full time 1B. 

One worrisome stat is a 250, his Bartolo Colon-like listed weight on his MILB stats card; I read where Smith's weight had come down this off season from a bulging 258 to 234 through consistent hard workouts and improved diet, but at just 6'0", it seems 215 or 220 would be a more ideal upper weight limit for Smith to excel playing at. 

Let's hope for a .350 + average in Vegas this year, a doubling of his home run rate to between 25 and 30, and that we'll see him in late 2017 in Queens, if not earlier. 

Given that Lucas Duda will become quite expensive next year, unless Duda has a breakout, career year in 2017, it almost certainly is Duda's last as a Met.   

I can picture Smith as a 35 double, 20 homer, .290+ hitter, somewhat similar to Daniel Murphy, but having a lot more homers at a much younger age than when Murph started hitting them with regularity.  

Hopefully, he'll become a Keith Hernandez, but with more power than Keith (who only averaged a dinger every 53 plate appearances in his big league career).

Smith should be our new starting 1B in 2018 - and be there for a LONG time to come...that's how I see it.


Mack Ade said...

Well, I think the young man that I had a hamburger with (and his Dad) when he arrived in Savannah has made the journey.

I too look for Smith to become the starting first baseman in 2018, but don't be surprised that he and Amed Rosario push themselves into the starting lineup some time this year.

Even Terry Collins can't supress superior talent and I now believe this kid has it.

Tom Brennan said...

Yep, Mack, his biggest enemy will be his weight. Control that optimally and perhaps the sky is the limit for our Mr. Smith.

Unknown said...

I totally agree and I'm always baffled by all the weight (no pun intended Dominick) scouts put on the HR #'s for Smith. I think 14 HR's at his age is excellent especially when you also add in the RBI total of 91 in 130 games AND his defense....it's a big wow for me. I looked up another pretty good first basemen named Freeman who of course any of us would put on our team in a heartbeat and his HR totals from his age 21 season to 25 are: 21, 23, 23, 18 and 18 before hitting 34 at age 26. Now it's a little early to put him in that category but not a bad comp. Here's hoping and LETS GO METS!!!

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, a win today, lots of good. This is gonna be a GOOD year.

Mack's Mets © 2012