2/3/17

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 23 RICKY KNAPP

7 comments



Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: # 23 RICKY KNAPP



Ricky Knapp seems like a happy guy, from his photo shot.
He had a happy 2016, too, going 13-5 in A and AA, before an 18 inning standoff in AAA Vegas, where he was 0-1, with 11 earned runs in 18 innings - actually, for Vegas, that's good.


His overall ERA was still excellent as he put up a sterling 2.69 ERA, spanning 24 starts and 164 IP, after an almost as solid year in 2015 as well. 


(Political Commentary: after reading the Kyle Johnson article on the lawsuit against baseball for minor league "cooley" wages, it is interesting to note that Ricky made less than $500 per start in 2016.  Max Scherzer gets about $1 million per start.  Disgraceful job, MLB).

My concern with Ricky is his modest strikeout rate, just 6.3 per 9 innings in 2016, and 6.7/9 over his career, which has spanned 431 innings. 

A full year in Vegas may challenge him and maybe he'll turn out to be the next Seth Lugo or Dillon Gee.  On a positive note, his walk rate has been exceptional - 2.3BB/9.  He may want to focus less on low walks and accept a few more walks while trying to get guys to fan on pitches off the plate, to raise his K/9 rate.

Other than the strikeout rate, I'd have ranked Ricky higher in the Top 25 - but given that his 6.3 K per 9 innings in 2016 occurred against A and AA guys, I am concerned how that might minimize chances of fanning big league hitters. 


I noticed on the Mets sites' Top 30, Ricky is not included, which is a possible negative indicator too.  They did, however, include Chris Flexen, who I have barely outside of my Top 35.  I hope Chris has a great season and makes me look foolish in leaving his off.

Ricky, who turns 25 this May, was an 8th rounder in 2013 and has performed very well. I  wish his 2017 goes very well as well.  My guess is he is at best an MLB 5th starter, but we'll know more as 2017 progresses.

Well, gotta go...tomorrow, my # 22 prospect.

7 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Here's what a pitcher like Ricky Knapp faces in Vegas:

2016 team 5.32 ERA, and 6 runs per game (earned and unearned).

FOURTEEN pitchers in 2016 tossed 18 IP or more with ERAs exceeding 5.00 (Ricky being the only one of the 14 under 23 IP). FOURTEEN. Combined 6.33 ERA for those 14 (499 ER in 709 IP, the equivalent of 79 nine inning games).

Just 7 guys over 18 IP with ERAs below 5.00, and only 3 of those below 4.00 (Edgin 3.26, Sewald 3.29, Ynoa 3.97).

That goes to my article point that Ricky Knapp's 5.50 ERA in Vegas over 18 IP is (besides being too few innings to conclude) not bad. And to the supreme challenge he faces in Vegas in 2017.

Adam Smith said...

Wow, Thomas. Those are some stark numbers.

Thomas Brennan said...

Adam...Truly was. Gsellman, Lugo and especially Montero, combined had to be 6.50 or higher. It is also a reason I still think Sewald will make Mets in 2017. He was over 2 runs per 9 below the team ERA average.

Reese Kaplan said...

Interesting question -- since Sewald is not on the 40-man roster, who goes to make room for him? Could he be the fill-in for Familia during his suspension or does the club have to maintain Familia's spot for the duration of it?

Reese Kaplan said...

According to that great bastion of misinformation known as Wikipedia, "Players who were on the 40-man but are placed on the 60-day disabled list are taken off the 40-man until the time on the DL is over. The same applies to players who are suspended."

Thomas Brennan said...

Room for Paul at the Inn.

Thomas Brennan said...

Room for Paul at the Inn.

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