2/22/17

Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: #4 BRANDON NIMMO

12 comments



Tom Brennan - TOP 25 METS' PROSPECTS: #4 BRANDON NIMMO


Brandon Nimmo - Don't underestimate him.

I'll be honest, I was not too thrilled with Mr. Nimmo being a first round pick for the Mets in 2011.  I felt like dialing 911.

His minor league offensive results coming into 2016 were (let's be honest) mostly mediocre, albeit with good on base skills.  

Nothing in particular stood out.  Low power, mensa mensa speed.  But he was just 22 in 2015 and had suffered a few injuries since 2011 which slowed his progress a bit.  

Then the AAA season starts and Nimmo continued to reinforce my negative opinion by going 11 for his first 56, with barely any power (no homers and just 2 two baggers).  I was thinking, when are all those Barwis workouts going to pay off?

Then BAM...Nimmo started to rip, and in doing so, rip up my accumulating opinion of him as being a guy who talked a very positive game and did not deliver in kind.

I reconsidered, thinking he might just work out as a decent number 1 pick after all, when I saw him go 127 for 336 the rest of the way, a robust .378, with 42 extra base hits.  His time with the Mets was also modestly encouraging, hitting .274 but with just one double and a tape measure homer in 73 ABs.

Breaking his season's performance further, Nimmo hit better in Vegas (.387/.461/.571) but quite well on the road too (.326/.394/.518).  Good!

The lefty hitting Nimmo had a truly superb lefty/righty split in Vegas, hitting .358 in 120 at bats against lefties with a .567 slug %, and .349 against righties.  Great!

All things considered, he had one heck of a season.  

With the log jam in the Mets outfield, Nimmo may be ticketed back to Vegas for the earlier part of the season until the log jam eases.  If that were to occur, doubling his Vegas 2016 homer rate of 1 every 40 at bats to 1 every 20 couldn't hurt a bit.  If he spends considerable time in Vegas, I'd hope to see him hit .375/.450/.600 to further cement his readiness.

Nimmo has only stolen 37 of 67 in the minors, so his speed at first seems around average, but he has compiled a triple every 18 games in the minors, so it seems that once he gets his motor running, he can cover a lot of ground fast.

Defensively, he's been a competent CF with some limited experience in left and right field.

Overall, Nimmo seems to have a ceiling as a solid 2nd, 3rd or 4th OF.  I think that if Nimmo can continue to improve (and why not), his ceiling could be as a lefty hitting Hunter Pence.  Really?  Yeah, really.

Keep in mind that Pence made his major league debut 2 weeks after his 24th birthday - Nimmo got to the bigs earlier and will be exactly that age on Opening Day - he had a heck of a year for a 23 year old, Vegas Boost or no Vegas Boost.  

I say to Brandon Nimmo, why not be another Pence, and help make the Mets Great Again?

Best wishes for a tremendous 2017 to a very likable guy, Mr, Nimmo.

12 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

You are very kind ranking Nimmo as the top outfielder in the pipeline.

I make this statement as an overall statement, not something against Brandon... NEVER overestimate batting stats from a PCL team. They are hyped 20-50% above what a player would hit in, oh, let's say NY State

Reese Kaplan said...

I would not be at all averse to seeing Nimmo and Lagares in CF instead of Granderson but $15 million players don't rot on the bench, not even when the guy who fills out the lineup card says, "You hit or you sit."

Eddie Corona said...

Love ya tom... But so don't agree with this... in fact any time i see Nimmo in the top 10 in any prospect list I shake my head. the recent trend of prospects in the system makes this spot way too high...
Nimmo is thought by many as a 4th OF at best... He is a poor CF and does not profile as a corner OF.
Can he prove us wrong, Sure but his big years cam in Vegas... its one of those things where he is suppose to post big numbers, if he doesnt then there is something really wrong... but can you trust those numbers...
I would love to be wrong about him, I think he will prove to be a valuable player off the bench A LA benny agbayani... someone who can fill in here and there for a time and maybe give you a tough at bat based on his high OBA...
But alas i expect nothing more... He will alaways be cursed by where he was chosen in the draft and who they should have chosen...

Thomas Brennan said...

Eddie and Mack, you may well be right, but I am hoping a nice guy finishes first...I remember that happening with deGrom and Wright, maybe it's his turn. Whether he deserves to be as high as #4, that is a real question, but I definitely think he deserves a top 10 slot from me for this year, which still means nothing - HE has to produce or fold, and this year (and spring) would be a great time to start wowing folks.

And Reese, a rising Nimmo just might be more productive than an aging Granderson this year. Time will tell, if Collins does not stay with what could be a struggling Grandy.

Eddie Corona said...

Tom
this is one area I hope I am wrong... If nimmo turns in say nick markakis I would be estatic...

Mack Have you heard or seen anything on Raul Beracierta this is a international signing i have seen nothing on...

Hobie said...

Thomas,

I agree with you on the "RH Pence" ceiling. I think we will see a Legares/Nimmo CF platoon come trade deadline. Actually, I hope it's more 50-50 than RH/LH platoon (even while Grandy's still around) as I haven't given up on Juan either.

Mack Ade said...

Eddie -

Re: Beracierta, I have seen nothing new on him. Sorry.

Reese Kaplan said...

@Tom...remember who has the lineup pencil. Salary and veteran status dictate umpteen chances when a lower cost or relative newcomer would be buried on the bench. If Granderson gets off to a .150 by the end of May, he's gone next year anyway and there's no excuse for even Collins to keep trotting him out there day after day.

Thomas Brennan said...

Agree, Reese.

eraff said...

I was Gonna defend Nimmo by using Wuilmer "Sidd Finch" Becerra as a Comp. People are Gushing about Becerra, but he had a 388 babip with a .081 ISO...meanwhile, Nimmo had a 415 babip

Cheech???....same inflated babip stats..."The One That Got Away" is The Dilson--- Herrera has a 150-200 iso with a 300 -325 babip every where he plays over the past 3 years. I fully expect him to be a 6-10 year starter with a couple of allstar games.

Thomas Brennan said...

eraff, but we can always say we had Bruce :)

Robb said...

Id say there is more prospect fatigue on Nimmo then anyone else in the mets org. right now he's a 4A platoon guy but i still think he can be an everyday mlb outfielder. he's not mike trout, but who is. also being fast and being a good basestealer arent mutually exclusive. some guys just dont have that top end speed on first movement but build up to it.

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