6/6/17

Tom Brennan - PHEW! WE'RE 24-31: NOW WHAT?

14 comments


Tom Brennan - PHEW! WE'RE 24-31: NOW WHAT?


Elephants know what to do when they are "behind."  Pachyderms are indeed wise mammals that know how to get down to business.

So, moving on from elephantine activities, you're Sandy Alderson, your team is 17-28 in its last 45 games and 24-31 overall.  "What the....?", you might say, then regain your composure.



You only have 2 games scheduled in the next 4 days, so you have time to exhale and re-evaluate. What to do, what to do...let me put on my Sandy Anderson chapeau and proceed here.



You have some good news - you happily are getting 2 valuable arms (Matz and Lugo) coming back to replace two less-valuable arms, to put it charitably.   What would I do?



I would first of all see how the next two games with Texas go on Tuesday and Wednesday - but if I had to decide today, I would send down Josh Smoker (hard thrower but too many failures) and Neil Ramirez (super-shaky).



I would keep Tyler Pill for now - his stuff is fringy but he is a gamer.  Keep him here until perhaps Hansel Robles starts pitching better than a righty version of Josh Smoker.



As expected, Matz and Lugo go into the rotation, and Gsellman (pitching much better of late) takes a prominent role in the pen.



If Harvey falters again, stick HIM in the pen and Gsellman back in the rotation - maybe the pen would resuscitate the Drunk Knight.



Over the next two weeks, whoever pitches poorly out of Pill and Sewald (or both, if necessary) goes down IF AND ONLY IF Robles and/or most likely Logan Taylor show they deserve a pen slot more than those two gents, both of whom I appreciate, by the way....I hope Pill and Sewald pitch well enough to stay for a long time.



HITTING: 



Cespedes has been a gross disappointment - let's hope he returns soon.  When he does, tell him to run gingerly for a while, and give him a lot of time off the first 3 weeks back.  Our offense has been good, but a healthy Cespedes can make it better.



INFIELD:




Dancing' Jose Reyes needs to sit - permanently - Flores plays permanently instead.  Hitting .178 on May 7, and exploding after that up to .313 now, shows Flores deserves to play every darned day, period, end of story.  


If Cabrera needs a day off, let Reyes play short that day - otherwise, he is a pinch runner, pinch hitter, or defensive replacement, period, until...SUPER 2 arrives, at which point Amed Rosario should be promptly recalled, Reyes released, and Cabrera moved to the bench to let Rosario play a lot.  Rosario needs to be ready to be an impact major league player in 2018., so playing now will help get there.



Monitor Duda and Dominic Smith closely in the weeks ahead, but if the Mets are falling completely out of contention, trade one (most likely Duda) and see what Smith can do.  That would give Smith another 6 weeks or so to continue to hit better, as he has slid to slightly above .300, not a really impressive number for a guy playing in Vegas.  Duda would want a multi-year (3 year?) deal at Dannie Boy Murphy bucks, and that to me seems like a mistake as of right now.



If d'Arnaud continues to stagnate, move him too. even if that means to the minors.   Then, call up Plawecki and tell him it is sink-or-swim time.



Refine your plan to retire David Wright in such a way as to get insurance money to offset part of his remaining contract.



OUTFIELD: 



I already touched on the Incredible Missing Man (Cespedes) so let's move on.



Bruce and Grandy are expensive and could be useful to some team - trade both as soon as a suitable deal can be found, unless, during the period you are trying to line up trades, the unlikely happens and the Mets catch fire.  



Grandy has hit much better of late than during his horrendous first month, so the acquiring team should pay half his salary.  Bruce has slumped into the .240s...let's move him too and get younger.



Nimmo can fill one outfield spot - he has been an on base machine the past 2 weeks.   See what he can or can't do over the last half season or so as a starter.  



Get Lagares more playing time, too, if for nothing else than to increase his trade value.



TJ Rivera can be the 5th outfielder (and spare IF and PH).



MANAGER:



The quickest way to shake up a squad sometimes is a managerial shake-up.  Collins is very unlikely to be back next year, so why not try this and see if it helps.



MINORS:



Challenge all the good ones at higher levels - we may need some of them ready for next season.  That means David Thompson, Jhoan Urena, Pat Mazeika, Tomas Nido, Kevin Kaczmarski, and Michael Paez get promoted soon, and Humphreys, Gonzalez, Conlon, Bashlor, Dunn, Molina, and a few other performing pitchers get promoted soon too.



LASTLY:



Pray a lot, and also pick shrewdly in the draft, too.

14 comments:

eraff said...

They will play through the string with the Present Squad. They have a Ton of Vets on expiring Deals--- the first shoe to drop is a signal to all of them that "it's over".... they cannot afford to have a bunch of disengaged Vets while entertaining the dream of a run.

Thomas Brennan said...

Nimmo seems mostly ready to be called up if an outfielder is moved. He's been on base 41 times in the past 20 games, which is impressive. But over those 20 games, he's fanned 22 times, which is a bit disturbing.

One guy who would LOVE to see Nimmo promoted is Victor Cruzado, who has gotten very sporadic playing time in the OF, what with Taijeron, Nimmo, and Jennings starting almost daily. Taijeron and Jennings are older; Cruzado needs to play....only 18 games, 10 of them with only a single at bat, since May 8.

Thomas Brennan said...

eraff, I agree - they need to see if they have a resurrecting run of wins in them with Lugo and Matz back and Cespedes right behind(?) and perhaps Rosario too. It's baseball, anything can happen.

But if the ship does not turn around soon, the surrender flag will be unfurled and the deals will start to fly.

Mack Ade said...

You guys stay focused... I'm looking past this.

I was particularly thrilled with the 5 scoreless innings yesterday by St. Lucie's Justin Dunn.

That's now only 1-ER in his last 16-IP, the last five being a return to being a starter.

He obviously has readjusted his approach to this game. I expect he will remain in Florida for the rest of the season due to his early hiccups. He's only 21 so no rush here.

Mack Ade said...

I spoke with Dave Roseboom yesterday. He is now out for the season due to a bum foot.

Told me he had a chance to get some good NYC food while he was up to see the doctors there.

All of us here at Mack's Mets wish him much rest and relaxation with his bride during his extended off-season. We will see you back on the bump next season Dave.

Adam Smith said...

Good morning Tom. I think you're right on with most of this. We need to get Cabrera off the field, so Rosario, and quick. At 1B, I'd be very seriously considering a 3 year deal for Duda, if you can get it done at reasonable cost. Yes, Smith is holding his own in Vegas, he hasn't exactly shown (at 22 years old) that he's ready to surpass what Duda will give you over the next year or two. Flores stays at 3B, and he's my answer there next season as well, with the proviso that if you can sign a big time 3B this offseason, he moves to 2B. One way or another, his bat is part of the future of this lineup. Grandy and Bruce both need to go. The sooner the better. All of those vets who otherwise might shut it down when the fire sale starts, are playing for contracts (with someone) so if you trade a couple early, and the others look like they're coasting, sit them. I'd give Lagares as much time as possible through the end of the year. He can't be worse than Grandy, and he has the tools to be a valuable CF - at least as a platoon player - moving forward. If he doesn't respond to the playing time, then add CF to your shopping list. On the staff, I'd be more inclined to use Lugo in the pen and keep Gsellman in the rotation, but the big move right now would - as you mention - be moving Harvey to the pen until he starts to look right. Sewald I keep (and please, TC, stop trying to kill the kid) but Ramirez gets cut, and Smoker goes back to AAA.

And yes, of course, get rid of TC, though I don't know who is available to bring in mid-season that is more than an interim. Pedro Lopez has 1/3 of a season at AAA. Is he ready? Probably not. DW would be an interesting choice, but you need to find a way to get him to retire in order to take the gig, and I don't know the ins and outs of their insurance deal, or whether he's even ready to give up the ghost on his playing days. No one on the current coaching staff strikes me as someone who will be a serious upgrade, though, if I had a son, (or was the agent for anyone) in that bullpen, I'd take any change I could get.

And Mack, I'm with you being excited that Justin Dunn seems to have righted the ship. We're gonna need something to root for over the next four months.

Reese Kaplan said...

The time to have fired Terry Collins was in 2012. If they embraced the loser then, he's here for the duration. The best you can hope for is that he's not invited back.

The minors are looking mighty barren past the two infielders in AAA. It's time to replenish in Carlos Beltran/R.A. Dickey fashion.

Anonymous said...

There are a couple teams id be calling for Granderson and Bruce
I'd call Seattle and offer Grandy for reliever named Vieira!
Then call the Angels and offer Bruce for Keynan Middleton!
If you have to pay salary so be it?
Then fire TC and let go of Warthen
Let DW be the interim Manager with Joe McEwing at his side,and Frankie V as his pitching coach.
Give the rest of the Vets a boost buy calling up two young players to add enthusiasm to this boring team? Rosario and Nimmo
Rosario at the top of the order. and Nimmo invectious smile will give a jolt to this team.
Then if they are out of contention buy July sell
It is yoo hard to compete without your best Hitter your best power hitter your best starter and your closer

Washington doesn't have a closer, but where would they be without Murphy-Harper or Scherzer?
The same place as the Mets

Thomas Brennan said...

Adam, I think if Flores played daily, maybe he'd be a poor man's Jeff Kent - we have to give him ample opportunity to find out how good a hitter he can be. I still think a really good one.

Mack, I disagree with you on Dunn - if he has his head squared up - and I read he was unhappy with himself, that he expects to crush hitters, and that he was happy to be finally adjusting his game and doing just that - he ought to go to Binghamton soon. Give me another start or 2 like yesterday's, and I'd bump him. Most guys promoted to Binghamton seem to do OK.

See my article tomorrow on pitchers to promote from St Lucie.

The key will be getting rid of the journeyman pitchers from Vegas and moving everyone along at each level.

Too bad on the foot, Dave Roseboom. Here's hoping for a 100% recovery and a 100% healthy 2018.

Thomas Brennan said...

Anonymous, good plan. Middleton looks like a good relief guy - throws hard. Vieira has a 4.70 career minor league ERA - why is he worthwhile?

alizarine said...

About the IF - I'd like to see Rosario at SS, Walker shifted to 3B and Wilmer shifted to 2B. I think Walker can likely play a quality 3B and 2B is Wilmer's best position.

One thing - I really think it's time to give Wilmer the job (whether it's 3B or 2B) F/T - meaning that even when he cools off, he gets to stay in the lineup everyday and work through his slumps. Terry has always had a penchant for jerking Wilmer around.

LEt Reyes or Cabrera be the "super sub".

Anonymous said...

Well put.....that's an ugly 0.377 winning percentage over the last 45 games, which equates to a 100 loss team over a full season!

I think all decisions going forward need to have 2018 and beyond in mind. This year is not getting any better, IMO.

ID the folks that will be a part of the future and start cutting/dealing/demoting the dead wood. I would rather see the kids up here learning their craft for the rest of the year.

Start with a platoon of Nimmo and Lagares in CF and move the Grandy-man along.

Mike

Thomas Brennan said...

Mike, we can hold off for a bit dealing Grandy or Bruce, but the two cost the Mets nearly $200,000 per day in salary. The sooner they can address that, the better - move at least one of them very soon.

As soon as Cespedes returns and proves he is healthy and unlikely to re-injure himself, look to deal in earnest.

Gary Seagren said...

I sure hope Cespedes isn't talking to our old friend Frank Francisco and getting pointers on delaying his return because the longer this goes the more doubts about his commitment to playing arise and I REALLY hope I'm dead wrong. I'm also totally against resigning Duda, Walker or Bruce because haven't we learned the hard way that signing over 30 year old's, and 2 of them with bad backs, is a disaster waiting to happen. I've lost count of the amount of player's on at least a 3 year or more deal that we ended up counting the years, month's, day's and minutes until the contract's expired and I sure hope Cespedes isn't the latest. No one thought the Wright deal would end this way either so lets use this as a lesson learned...PLEASE.

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