Paul Articulates - Four reason to be optimistic about the Mets' future

The Mets are back on top.  After losing their NL East lead during a slight downturn while the Phillies tore of a 9-1 streak, the Mets simply regained their winning ways by stomping on teams that they should beat, going 5-1 against the White Sox and the Rockies.  The Phillies stumbled against the Milwaukee Brewers and now sit a game behind.

It is early to be watching the standings.  With just more than a third of the season behind us, there is still a lot of baseball to be played.  The dog days of summer, the trade deadline, and the pennant stretch are all ahead.  

What I like about the team right now is that despite not having everything go right, they have managed to compile a 37-22 record for a .627 winning percentage.  With a very solid starting lineup and a deep bench, a healthy pitching staff and more on the way, there are many reasons to believe that they will continue to win.

Last week we talked about an evaluation of six key areas on the team, and I think everything said there still holds.  There is a tough series starting tonight with the Dodgers.  The team will fly three time zones to the west and then without any rest take on the formidable West division leaders who just finished taking a series from the AL East leading Yankees. 

Having won the last series against the Dodgers at Citi Field, the Mets are not as well positioned to do it again, as both Clay Holmes and Kodai Senga will be resting during the next four games.  It will take some resurgent hitting to win this series, with Blackburn, Megill, Canning, and Peterson due on the mound.

The Mets' bats are due to start picking up.  Warmer weather brings less dense air and balls should carry a little further.  I think that is all Juan Soto needs to go on a tear.  His home run yesterday left the bat at 110mph, and Saturday's went 109.5mph.  

He is in the 95th percentile among MLB hitters for average exit velocity, the 95th percentile for % hard hit balls, and 91st percentile for squared up batted balls.  These are good indications that with a little "hit 'em where they ain't" luck, Soto's average is about to soar.  

Meanwhile, Pete Alonso had his home run swing return from a 65 at-bat vacation, and I expect him to be catching up on the lost time.  Lindor is showing some pop, McNeil discovered his power swing yesterday, and Brett Baty is swinging with authority.  There seem to be many reasons to be optimistic.

I am usually an optimist, though I am grounded enough to know that nothing ever goes as planned.  But aside from the musings above, I would like to point out several statistical reasons to justify my bullishness.

• In the last 15 days, there are seven Mets with an OPS over .700.  Nimmo, Soto, Vientos, and Alvarez are not on that list, but they could be at any time.  A rested Starling Marte is at the top of the list - would you have guessed that?  
• The Mets have been successful on 45 of 53 stolen base attempts this year.  The 45 bases is not anywhere near the top of the league, but the ratio of bases stolen to attempts (84.9%) is the best.  There are a lot of smart base runners on this team and a decent amount of speed.  If Mendoza gets a little more aggressive, I think it will directly translate to more runs per game.
• The Mets (2.85) still lead MLB in ERA.  They are the only team in baseball with a staff ERA below 3.00.  This is after finishing recent series against the Yankees and Dodgers who are #1 and #2 in homers, OPS, and slugging.
• Everyone strikes out in todays game.  But the Mets are third in the NL (6th in MLB) for fewest strike outs.  Putting the ball in play, especially with the base runners on the team increases the probability of success.  I don't think that this advantage has emerged yet because the team still has the fourth worst batting average (.212) with RISP in the league.  Stats like batting average with RISP tend to level out over time, so expect this to improve and begin to multiply the pressure on the defense.

With these four things in play, and series with the Rockies, Nationals, and Rays to follow the four game trip to LA, I think we will see the Mets extend their division lead heading into a crucial ten game stretch against the Braves and Phillies beginning on June 18th.