Herb G. - Cruz Control

When this off season got underway, there was universal agreement that the Mets primary need was to add some power to the middle of the order, and that the most logical position to add that power was with an outfielder. The Mets also needed to upgrade shortstop, but shortstop is generally not a position to provide power, even though FA Jhonny Peralta had exhibited some power in the past. There were five premier outfielders on the market, two of which, Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo appeared to be far too expensive for the Mets limited budget, and one, Carlos Beltran, seemed an unlikely candidate. The Mets were left to decide whether to pursue Nelson Cruz or Curtis Granderson.

At the beginning of November, Tim Dierkes of MLB TradeRumors came out with his predictions of where the top free agents would end up. He predicted that the Mets would get Granderson, who was #13 on his Top 50, while he said the Phillies would get Cruz, who was #17 on his list. (As an aside, Dierkes also predicted that the Mets would sign Stephen Drew, who he ranked at #14, and that Peralta, ranked #21, would go to the Cardinals.) Shortly thereafter, Peralta surprised almost everyone by agreeing to a 4 year, $53 million deal with the Cardinals. Perhaps emboldened by Peralta’s deal with St. Loo, Cruz, who like Peralta had a Biogenesis suspension on his resume, sprung his own surprise on the baseball world.

On Nov. 26, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that Nelson Cruz was seeking a four year, $75 million deal. SAY WHAT??? Heyman stated that several teams were interested in Cruz, including the Mariners, Athletics, Mets, and his old team, the Rangers. The Phillies, who were predicted to sign Cruz, had already signed Marlon Byrd, taking themselves out of the Cruz sweepstakes. It seemed obvious to me that Cruz had made the Mets decision on which outfielder to pursue much easier. The Grandyman would be their guy, and sure enough, it happened.

Time marches on! Fast forward to January 2014, and Nelson Cruz is still unemployed. Jeff Sullivan published an article in Fangraphs on January 2, stating that there is virtually no market for Cruz. Among the reasons Sullivan cites are Cruz’s age, (33) his PED suspension, his limited WAR over the last 3 years, and his excessive contract expectations. Sullivan says “Cruz’s contract wishes are memorable” and goes on to say “Terms players want aren’t necessarily indicative of anything — ultimately, players have to play for what a team is willing to spend. Cruz might very well fall way short of what he came into the off-season seeking.”

While I agree that Cruz’s statement early in the off-season regarding his contract expectations, hurt his cause, as, I might add, was the fact that he declined a qualifying offer, thus requiring a team that signed him to forfeit a draft pick, I question some of Sullivan's logic on the other points. At 33, Cruz is hardly an old man, and there is no reason why he cannot produce at age 33, 34, and even 35. Regarding his Biogenesis link, it hasn’t seemed to affect the signing of other free agents, like Peralta. And then there is the matter of his performance and capabilities.

Sullivan compares Cruz’s WAR (wins above replacement player) over the past 3 years to those of Sean Rodriguez and John Buck. But there is a significant difference in how their WAR figures were determined. In Cruz’s case a high oWAR (offensive WAR) was offset by a negative dWAR (defensive WAR) while with the two comparables, both their offensive and defensive performances were middling. It is difficult for me to fathom all these WAR comparisons, since WAR (unlike OBP, SLG or FLD) is calculated through a set of complex algorithms. Suffice it to say that I don’t see Cruz as such a defensive liability, since his fielding percentage (FLD) over his career, as well as the last couple of years, has been just about league average, and his range factor has been superior.

Sullivan further points to the Steamer projection of Cruz’s 2014 WAR (1.6) as further evidence of his non value. But Oliver, an alternative forecasting program, projects Cruz’s 2014 WAR at 3.2. Over a 162 game season, Cruz’s career stats average out to .268/.327/.495, OPS .823, with 32 HR and 99 RBI. Oliver’s projection for 2014 is 32 HR and 96 RBI. Of course, those projections will be influenced by where he eventually winds up, but even if he falls somewhat short of those numbers, Cruz must be considered an offensive force, by any measure. And it doesn’t seem that he would harm a team’s defense in any appreciable way.

It is difficult to make the case for the Mets to sign another outfielder. With the two Youngs, Granderson, and Lagares, they seem full up. After making this year’s additions, their payroll currently stands at $82.4 million, and if they end up signing Stephen Drew at somewhere around $10 million per year, as many expect, they would be at about $93 million. Again, all full up. Would it be worth it to extend the payroll to sign Cruz? Assuming Cruz would accept something like $11 million a year for 2 years plus an option, and Ike Davis gets traded, (again as many expect) and the remaining additions (starter, bull pen, and/or bench depth) are for minor league contracts, the payroll would total about $101 million. The real question is, how formidable would it be to have a lineup of:

Drew, Murphy, Wright, Granderson, Cruz, Duda, C. Young, d’Arnaud.

I’d say very formidable. From 3 through 7 in that order all have 20+ HR potential. Even d’Arnaud could hit 20 if he gets untracked this year. Is an offense like that sufficient to significantly improve our chances of making the post season? And is making it to the post season worth stretching the payroll to just over $100 million? I’m thinking the answer to both questions is yes!