The prevailing image in "Mets Land" over the past few years has been one of maximizing resources for the future, while our current team barely treads water. It is a frustrating experience, especially over the course of the last decade, when you factor in the steady decline in our favorite team's performance along with the annual "promise" to get better in the future.
This frustration has manifested itself in an angry and impatient fan base, of which I am a card carrying member.
I understand what Sandy Alderson is trying to do and I also understand the limitations that have plagued his efforts during his tenure. The only logical response (other then irrational outbursts and having to replace the TV remote control, again) is to take breath and exercise some patience. I will admit that I am not always the most patient person, nor are many of you out there who faithfully follow our favorite team, even in these trying times.
However, I think our collective patience is about to be rewarded "in spades" as they say.
A unexpected thing is happening over the course of the last month, or so........the Mets are playing pretty good baseball, as a whole. It has reflected itself in our overall record and using "Sandy-speak", our run differential. Many factors come in to play when you look at that figure, but we are currently a +19, which is actually better then many of the teams directly in front of us in the standings, to include the Braves. I know, run differential does not mean much when you are out of the playoffs. But, it is an indicator that our team may have started to turn the corner......think of the 1984 Mets, which was a precursor for the best run of Mets baseball in their history.
I mention that because it is easy to overlook when we are still buried in the standings, but it does bode well for the immediate future.
With all that said, some folks want to "sell" and continue to build for the future by trading as many assets as we can (not counting some of you who would empty the farm system for Tulo or Stanton). I think that sort of move would be short-sighted and limit our future growth as a consistent playoff team and championship contender (that's right, I said that phrase and our team in the same sentence). I agree with Mack that we could shed Bartolo Colon for a solid prospect for long term depth and be just fine with what is still left over. But, anything more then that and you start to create more problems then you realize.
Simply put, where the heck is everyone going to play? Taking a cue from Tom Brennan's recent series on our lower minor leagues, our overall system is pretty STACKED!
If we trade from our pitching "surplus", what we get back would have to fill a need, or else you don't make the deal. The problem (and feel free to try it yourself) is where do you truly have a long term need? I don't mean that in an arrogant way (after all, we just escaped fourth place in our own division), but when you look ahead, focus on just the next three or four years and you will see what I mean.
The following rudimentary list will have our "current" starter and just one potential upgrade or depth in parenthesis, using a three year projection;
C - TDA (Plawecki)
1B - Duda (D. Smith)
2B - Murphy (Herrera)
SS - Tejada (Rosario)
3B - Wright (J. Urena)
LF - EYJ/CY (Conforto or Nimmo)
CF - Lagares (C. Stuart)
RF - Granderson (Nimmo or Puello)
SP - Colon, Wheeler, Niese, DeGrom, Gee, et al
(Harvey, Syndergaard, Montero, Matz, Ynoa)
RP - Mejia, Familia, Black, Edgin, Carlyle, Torres
(Leathersich, Tapia, Mateo, Morris, Parnell)
Many of you hard core fans of the Mets minor league teams know that my list is extremely incomplete! There are quite a few more prospects (Wilmer Flores, for example), that I didn't even list, that would make this exercise even more challenging. Our depth (even if a percentage of them fail, which is likely) is crazy! So, with this pipeline poised to deliver a steady stream of talent right around the corner, what position would you address in a trade in the short term?
Keep in mind, a blockbuster would require losing some of the listed depth and it would also block the path of several young players poised to break through in the next few years.
It is a nice problem to have and it portends a bright future, as long as we still have the patience to get there.
12 comments:
I think you skipped over the AAA hitters in your assessment. There's a guy at short hitting what, .340? And a guy at 2B who has had 28 RBIs in his last 17 games. (For comparison's sake, Ruben Tejada has 21 for the entire season).
I love the optimism, but you can't hang you r hat on guys in A ball - even if they look like stars, a lot can derail Rosario - I don't think you can plan on guys below AA, and even that is a sure thing
So, if we can get a ML or AAA level bat at SS or LF, we need to do it
Reese - I am not ready to Deen Reynolds the real deal yet - he hit like Tejada in the FSL last year and has a sky high BABIP this year - but I am ready for him to prove me wrong
I think he gets a shot come Sept
Your reference to Flores is why I think Murphy is tradeable - there will not be a huge drop off, and as much as I love Murph, I believe this is a career year for him
I share Lew's opinions about people at the A level. The realness of the chances you may have a major league baseball player in your hands comes at the AA level... and that takes an adjustment as well... look at Matz, Nimmo... 'AA' is called 'the prospect level' where all the wannabees have been cast aside. Your pitchers aren't relying only on their fastball and your swingers have learned to not swing at everything thrown their way.
Dilson Herrera would be a perfect example of one of our next major leaguers.
Mike -
One warning about what Thomas Brennan writes.
(with all due respect to Thomas) - No one is more of an internal optimist than Thomas, but all he is basically doing is going down the stat sheet and writing a paragraph about someone that has decent stats so far this season at the level he is playing.
One of the players he featured had 4.0 innings pitches in rookie ball.
That's crazy.
There is so much going on down at these levels and the last thing any of the Mets evaluator care about is stats. Pitchers are being asked to add new ways of throwing a ball in real time conditions. Batters are having their mechanics changed. What you see as the end result in a box score may have nothing to do with what was taught that day.
I wrote another Tulo deal this morning because everyone keeps bringing it up. Frankly, I think he's having the year of his life and everything goes downhill from here.
I will not be happy unless Wilmer Flores is given this job for an entire year. Then, and only then, will I have the satisfaction or disappointment knowing that everything he accomplished for two years at the AAA level were a waste of time.
The Mets don't need Tulo. They need 6 solid, HEALTHY, starters (one in reserve).
Until the team has that 'dream rotation' we're 'just another band from New Jersey'.
Great article, Mr. Friere (especially mentioning that Brennan character). And you make a great case that standing pat by and large may be a successful strategy.
Mack is right on as to his lower minor reality check. I built up a lower minor Top 20 list, but that may end up in perhaps 3-5 major leaguers down the road...a crap shoot. But its fun to sling out kiddie optimism. It is a kid's game for kids from 8 to 88!
Ummm....didn't Reynolds hit in the mid .300s in AAA this year, prompting his promotion to AAA where he kept it up? Yes, I'm sure his luck on BABIP is helping, but it's been over a half a year, so it's no longer a small sample size. He was a high draft pick so apparently what the scouts saw may be coming to fruition.
Regarding Flores, I'm just utterly disgusted. For a team struggling to score runs and letting him languish in AAA is just ludicrous. I'd put up with his defensive game if he can deliver 75% of his offensive game at the ML level. However, if trading Murphy is not in the cards, then I guess they'll dangle him in trade offers as they seem committed to Ruben Wagner/Tulowitzki/Banks/Jeter.
The only spots that the Mets are "too deep" to add talent are C and 2B. I would also shy away from trading real talent for a 1B, just because Duda is cheap and coming into his own, and because there are other guys who could slide over there in an emergency. My criteria for "no room at the Inn" is we have a plus player filling the position in the ML and at least one guy already tearing it up at AA or above, waiting to take the spot.
3B is obviously a unique position for us, but it could be argued that it would be difficult to get a prospect upgrade over Flores, if we assume that he could play there - and my guess is he'd be more than an adequate defensive 3B. But outside of that, banking on a kid in Brooklyn as your depth is not a wise move.
Other than that, I think - and I know I'm not alone - that this team should still be looking to add positional talent at the upper minors or above at SS and in the OF. Puello apparently still has much to prove, Nimmo could easily be 2 years away, and it's absurd to depend on Conforto, a guy who hasn't taken a pro at bat yet.
For all of his mistreatment, Flores is really a key here. I'm pretty solidly in the "trade Murph if the return is right" camp. That would give Flores a year or so to show what his bat can do while waiting for Dilson, who I expect is going to have a long and solid career manning the keystone at Citi. But if that's the plan, then I would certainly not shy away from getting a high-ceiling 3B prospect in any deal, even if he would end up as a chip in a future trade. I like the kid in Brooklyn, but he's a lifetime away, in prospect years.
Reynolds is having the kind of year (maybe 2 years) that Juan Lagares had at the end of his minor league 'career'.
Sometimes a player stops doing things the way they always did and they begin to listen to the people around them that can help take them to the next step. This is what it looks like is happening here. He always was a good hitter but he may be re-inventing himself like Lagares did in AAA
I agree on Reynolds Mack - however I am not a true believer in him yet - but, I hope he proves that this season is his real talent - not the last two where he was very poor
Excellent points all......if you look at the names in parenthesis, most of them are in the upper levels of our system. Add in some of the omitted names and then look at the lower levels....paints a nice picture going forward.
I am all for making moves to get better, we just need to realize that we may have our "future" team in house, already.
Mike (not registered, sorry)
Adam,
Flores IS a more than adequate 3b - he proved it last year when Wright was injured. He's been playing every position in the infield except SS since he went back to AAA. I would guess that if he's not traded, he may end up being our Martin Prado/Ben Zobrist - a super-sub type with 400 or so AB's a season, Or, if Murph gets traded, he probably will get his shot at 2B.
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