Morning Report – July 15th – The Wild Card Race, Blockbuster Trades, Colon Trade

Coming Later Today –    

           10 00 am - Christopher Soto - 2014 Mets Mid-Season Report Card

           12 noon - Thomas Brennan - TOP PROSPECTS FROM DEEP DOWN UNDER – THIRD IN A 4 PART SERIES

             2 00 pm - Taijeron Named League Player of the Week

            4 00 pm - 2015 Draft Profile  -  LHP  -  Juan Hillman  -  Olympia (FL) HS - UPDATED 7-3-14

Victor Black ‏@Vic_Black_- Be ready @mets fans. This is about to get really good!


Pitchers have a way of starting out a new, higher level assignment as a poof and ADD GCL Mets Brian Taylor to the list. His first start last night was, well you tell me: 2.1-IP, 6-H, 4=-ER charged, 4-K, and 2-BB... ERA: 15.43. Happens all the time to these kids facing a more talents list of hitters. He'll be fine.

Marcus asked –

Mack, I see that you put up the Wild Card race on the sidebar, but removed the race for the top draft pick.

Mack – Yeah, I think the recent upswing deserves us all being a little more positive about the remainder of 2014, but, at the same time, I want to show everyone just how hard it is going to be to climb back over all the teams that currently have a better record than you.

It’s not like every one of these teams are going to go on a 10 game losing streak especially since they all play each other. Someone has to win, right.

The first thing the Mets need to do is win the series they are playing, especially against division rivals. It’s asking too much to sweep.

You want to start passing teams by having less loses than they do, but you really can’t concentrate on anything than winning the game you’re playing.

The Mets may have a better chance winning their own division than getting a wild card invite, but trust me, the Nationals and Braves aren’t going to roll over… but if they split the games they have left against each other, and the Mets win their series against both teams, there actually would be a good chance to pull this off.

For now, concentrate on having less loses that Miami. The sweep this past weekend was outstanding.

Here are the first three series after the All-Star break –

            Mets – Padres, Seattle, Brewers

Dodgers – Cards, Pirates, Giants

            Giants – Miami, Phillies, Dodgers

            Nats – Brewers, Rockies, Reds

            Braves – Phillies, Miami, Padres

            Pirates – Rockies, Dodgers, Rockies

            Reds – Yankees, Brewers, Nats

            Brewers – Nats, Reds, Mets

            Cards – Dodgers, Tampa Bay, Cubs

            Miami – Giants, Braves, Houston

There are 12 series listed above that teams in the National League wild card race do not  play against teams they are trying to beat in this race… however, there are nine other series in which they play each other.

This guarantees 27 loses for teams in this race in just the next three series.

Let’s repeat that… 27 loses in just the next three series.

You can’t expect the Mets to play .800 ball like they just did for the past 10 games, but .700 isn’t out of the question. My guess is that both Washington and Atlanta are going to make it to the playoffs so the Mets best chance is going to be the third team out of that division.

Let’s say the Mets do play .700 ball for the next 30 games.  That would add nine loses to their current total of 50 giving them a new win-loss record of 66-59.

Now, you have St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh play .500 ball during the same 30 game period. They would then have, in the same order, 59, 59, and 61 loses. Three series and boom, the Mets just have to past either the Giants or Dodgers for the second wild card slot.

No, it’s not that easy, but things do get a lot easier if win the majority of the games you play, especially against the teams you are trying to pass in this quest.

As they say, win the series.

The race is on!

Yesterday’s comments were once again dominated by the dreams of a blockbuster trade for the Mets. I used to dream about these things too, but I think Christopher Soto put it best… you can’t have a blockbuster trade unless you are trading an established start at a position in which you have the depth to pull something like this off.

The only position we are close to having that kind of depth is starting pitching and the main reason we don’t right now is all the injuries we have had to current and future pitchers projected for that infamous ‘dream rotation’ we always talk about.

We can keep talking about this but (IMO) it simply isn’t going to happen. Sandy Alderson doesn’t build teams this way and he didn’t go this far into his multi-year plan to blow it all up.

I wish I had a crystal ball and could look ahead and see how some of these guys turn out. Will Juan Lagares someday become Carlos Gomez? Look how many years the baseball world gave up on him? Is there another Jacob deGrom in the system? Hell, if not, is there at least another Collin McHugh?

This recent 8-2 run just killed all those (if any) plans to sell off parts of this team. You just can’t do it out of respect for the players that go out there every day on the field (I still think there is a [possibility for a Bartolo Colon deal, but that’s about it).

I hate to be the baseball-Nazi, but I’m sorry folks. No Tulo for you. 

Adam Rubin wrote during the break that ‘industry sources’ have told him that Bartolo Colon is being sought by teams. He also stated that the Mets would be looking for an upgrade at shortstop and a fulltime left fielder to join Juan Lagares and Curtis Granderson in the outfield.

Yes, the Mets are no longer considered ‘sellers’ during this all-star break; however, they can still get away with trading one of their starters. Colon makes sense to the Mets because of his two year contract. He also would bring a much larger return than Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has no future to the Mets past this season.

Colon’s contract is actually pretty trade-friendly in today’s world of bloated salaries.

All of this would make a lot of sense if it was timed to Jon Niese’s return. Both Rafael Montero (currently in rehab at GCL) and Noah Syndergaard could become the emergency 6^th and 7^th starters if either Niese, Dillon Gee, Matsuzaka, Jacob deGrom, or Zack Wheeler were to go down with an injury.

What kind of quality return could the Mets get with a deal like this? Well, actually, a pretty good one from some teams.

Hangon. 

Exciting times.