Morning Report – August 1st – Sept. Call-Ups, Trading Deadline, Is WAR Finite, Matt den Dekker

C Juan Centeno was transferred from Las Vegas to Binghamton, either as a paper move or to get him some steady work.


September Roster –

            I’m being told that the Mets are going to dig down to their AA-Binghamton roster for some of the September call-ups, designed to give some of their prospects a ‘taste’ of what big-league baseball is all about.

I’m hearing names like 2B Dilson Herrera, CF Brandon Nimmo, and SP Steven Matz (if he had any innings left), but we’ll have to wait and see…

Trading Deadline –

            So, that was that.

            I still don’t think this is over. Bartolo Colon would pass through waivers in a heartbeat, so he could go at any time between now and opening day 2015. I’ve written about this before. He’s got a cheap one-year deal in a big contract free agent market. He won’t be a Met next season unless Sandy Alderson wants him to be and by all accounts, it doesn’t look like he went out of his way to call around and get rid of Colon this past two weeks. Does he think he will have a bigger trade return in the off season? Does he want him part of his 2015 rotation? Or does he want him to hang around this season and produce around five more wins during our version of a pennant race? Stay tuned.

Most of the current cylinders are firing pretty decently. I would make one change and release OF Bobby Abreu. The team needs a producing left hand hitting pinch hitter and it doesn’t seem to be Abreu. I would pick either Matt den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis to finish the season with the parent team.

I also would try a little marketing plan. It’s no big secret that, between Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki, that Juan Centeno has little chance of making Queens his permanent home. Still, this would be a great time to replace Anthony Recker with Centeno as the #2 catcher in hopes of generating some trade chip interest

Ironically, I got an email a few minutes ago from Derek McNight - 

          Mack, can you give us an idea what the Mets would have had to part with in the big trades, examples for Price or Lester

                Derek, I'm writing more about this on Saturday, but the Mets just didn't have the depth as a team to get involved in deals like this. Any deal for either one of those two pitchers would have had to include either Wheeler or Syndergaard. In addition, there could be at least two more players like either deGrom, Plawecki, d'Arnaud, Nimmo.

The Mets are in no position to cripple their future and start all over again building the infrastructure of the team. The Mets are one, maybe two years away from this kind of deal

August-September Rotation –

The Las Vegas 51s are quietly adding a couple of pitchers to their rotation that might/should come into play in the Queens rotation when some of the young arms are shut down due to innings concerns.

Already on the roster is veteran John Lannan, who had an outstanding first outing (6.0-ip, 0-r) a few days ago. Next up will be Jeremy Hefner once he completes his rehab assignments which are currently with the St. Lucie team.

My guess is both will join Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, Logan Verrett, and Corey Mazzoni in a 6-man rotation.

(by the way, Montero had an outstanding scoreless outing yesterday, IN LAS VEGAS AT HOME. He has plenty of innings left in his tank and could be the first call-up for someone shut down due to IP issues)

Is WAR Finite –

           Baron Von Waffles - Given that WAR is finite. How much does the allocation of it vary? A player has two statistical congruent seasons in a row, what would the expected WAR variance be? Or a gap of 10 years?

Neil Weinberg: If I understand the question you’re asking, a player who has the same BA/OBP/SLG etc from one season to another won’t have identical WAR because WAR is based on the total production of the league. So for example, league average wOBA this year is about .312. Last year it was about .314. It was way higher 15 years ago. A .340 wOBA this year is slightly more valuable than it was last year. So a player with identical raw numbers won’t have the same WAR because the league will move a little around them. Go look at Trout 2013 and Helton 2000 for example. If I misunderstood the question, ask it again

Matt den Dekker –

            All of Mets World missed on Juan Lagares. Sure, many of us thought his AA and AAA hitting was impressive, but we never thought it could be translated at the major league level.

            Then there was 1B Lucas Duda who absolutely no one had over Ike Davis. Well, except ex-Met farmhand P Greg Mullens, who told me in 2007 (you remember this, Hobie) that no one in the organization had a sweeter swing than Duda.

            Both Lagares and Duda have been late bloomers for the Mets and, that’s fine, but do we have a third one on our hands with outfielder Matt de Dekker?

            Simply put, ‘DD”is on fire in Vegas (yeah… Vegas). He’s hitting 309-AB, .327/.397/.531/.928, 7-hr, 44-RBI, 62K/33BB. He plays as good a centerfield as Lagares and could easily slot over to left and play better defense there than anything the Mets currently have playing there.

            Look, spend the time you want looking for a solution outside the system for this position, but let’s remember how both Lagares and Duda have proven their value by increasing their value from within.

           What if we could actually solve our LF future problems from within with a team controlled player? You know the future could have names like Nimmo and Conforto in it, so all your free agent and trading efforts could be spent on finding that ever elusive shortstop. 

          Call him up and let's see what we have here again.

Wild Card –

            Here comes the first big test.

            The Mets play 10 of their next 14 games against teams currently with better records in the National League (Giants, Nats). In addition, 10 of the 14 are against division rivals (Nats, Phillies) and six will be against Washington

           Yesterday, four more teams lost.. Washington, Atlanta, Miami, and the Pirates. There is absolutely nothing wrong when the three teams in your own division that are leading you lose on the day you are playing golf.

The weekend series feature only four teams playing against each other (Reds vs. Marlins, Brewers vs, Cardinals), guaranteeing two losses. 

          Key teams to root against... both with only 50 loses (Giants and Cards), and our division rivals (Nats (vs. Phillies), Braves  (vs. Padres), (vs. Reds)) 

Big opportunity to go only five games back in the Wild Card standings.