8/4/14

Morning Report – August 4th – Arnaldo Berrios, Greg Maddux, Wild Card Race, Mail Box



In the end, Stephen Drew would have been the right decision...


From PG –

Arnaldo Berrios is a 2014 OF/2B with a 5-10 167 lb. frame from Barranquitas, PR who attends Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy. Medium athletic build, has some present strength. 6.72 runner, solid outfield fundamentals, accurate throws with good arm strength, quick arm but can speed up release, looks to have the athleticism and tools to play in the middle infield. Switch hitter, good hand strength for his size, big hitch to start his swing from both sides, complicated timer, better bat speed from the left side, needs to keep hands up before swing, ball some off the barrel well left handed, tends to pull off pitches right handed. Young player with solid tools to develop, has improved over the past year. Good student. Named to the Caribbean Showcase Top Prospect team. http://www.perfectgame.org/players/playerprofile.aspx?ID=357350



Greg Maddux –

             The great unwritten Greg Maddux story is now finally being written about since he has been announced as a member of the Hall of Fame. Reporters agreed years ago to keep this one ‘inside their pants’ until it couldn’t influence the voting. Seems Maddox had a sicko sense of humor and liked to go over to rookies in the shower when they were both nude and welcome them to the team… by urinating on them. I was told of this around 10 years ago and long time Mack’s Mets readers may remember me saying I knew something about this guy that will someday make news. Well, there it is

            (Mike Vorkunov ‏@Mike_Vorkunov  - Just heard the Greg Maddux urination story Chipper Jones told on @LeBatardShow. Maddux is a Hall of Fame pitcher and, ugh, weirdo).

            You little pisser you…


Wild Card Race  (results through Sunday’s games unless otherwise stated) –

      Mets – 58 loses:  last week:  4-3 - record since ASG: 8-8 (record since 8-2 run: 24-17)
            Nats – current division leader - 49 loses:  last week:  4-4 - record since ASG: 9-7
            Braves – 54 loses:  last week: 2-6 - record since ASG: 6-11
            Marlins – 57 loses:  last week: 4-4 - record since ASG: 10-7
          Brewers – current division leader - 51 loses:  last week:  2-4 - record since ASG: 8-7
            Cards – 51 loses:  last week: 3-3 - record since ASG: 7-7
            Pirates –  52 loses:  last week: 5-3 - record since ASG: 10-6
            Reds – 55 loses:  last week:  4-4 - record since ASG: 5-11
        Dodgers – current division leader - 49 loses:  last week: 5-2 -  record since ASG: 9-6
            Giants - 51 loses:  last week: 2-4 - record since ASG: 7-8

I think you’re starting to get the idea how hard this is going to be. It’s not like the Mets have to pass one team.

The only way this was going to work was if the Mets played in the 65-80% win range for 3-4 weeks and created the urgency for the race. That hasn’t happened. Frankly, the Mets haven’t won enough games and only Atlanta and the Reds have lost enough to allow the Mets to catch up ‘a little’.

I’ll keep breaking this out for a couple of more weeks but frankly a .500 win-loss record might be a more realistic goal here.


Mail Box –

            Michael Scannell -  

With all the talk of the Rockies heavily scouting Syndergaard's last start, has deGrom supplanted him in the team's long- term plans? I'd hate to see that be the case, as deGrom should have premium trade value and I truly believe Thor had SP1 upside.

            Mack – I don’t think so.

Remember, every team needs at least five starters. Detroit just proved you can’t ever stop looking.

Let’s remember that deGrom has basically come out of nowhere to claim a rotation slot

Let’s also remember that teams have a ton of scouts and all that could have been is a response to the Rockies GM picking up the newspaper (does anyone still do that?) and reading that the Mets are interested in Tulo. That rumor alone would get a telephone call out to the head of your scouting to make sure you have scouts for the next series at all the affiliate levels of the Mets. That’s how it works.

The Mets had plenty of starting pitchers to trade this past week but the problem is the only ones any team wanted were the guys that Sandy has on a protected list.

Both Syndergaard and Rafael Montero had wonderful last outings in Las Vegas. Let’s say that Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and deGrom are SP1-4 next season. You have Niese, Gee, Colon, and Montero to pick for the SP5.

Colon is basically a 12 month rental at $11mil. Gee and Niese are 24 month rentals. Montero probably offers the Mets the better long term return (or at least until Steven Matz is ready sometime in July 2015).

These are the trading chips the Mets have, but the problem is you have to find someone that wants them. It doesn’t seem to me that Alderson is the kind of GM that gets on the phone and pimps out his players.

And it changes weekly. There is a much better market out there right now for de Grom than either Niese or Gee.

Yes, this is a much slower way to build a team, but it’s the road we are on.

Michael, Alderson needs to walk into Fred Wilpon’s office and convince him that new money has to be committed to an established star that plays either shortstop or left field. Then, he needs to pick up the phone and call what teams have prospects at these positions that are ready to break through and are blocked by current ‘stars’ (Cubs, Dodgers, etc.).

But, here’s the difference.

Tell their GM you don’t want the prospect. Instead, you want to established star with the contract in place. What percentage of money would have to be paid by each team would have to be negotiated, but Alderson needs to offer up multiple players to get this done… some combination of established pitching (Gee, Niese) plus one or two prospects (Plawecki, Urena, Nimmo, etc.)

You can speed this process up and still keep your best pitching, but it will take new money.


Jack Leathersich

              Tommy Emolo  -  I love reading your daily articles about the Mets farm teams and players.  I have become well informed of the Mets farm through your site and sites like yours over the past 4 + years now.  Anyway, I am well aware of Jack Leathersich what he has done and what his problems have been that may have prevented him from reaching the big league club.  My question is, what do you think the Mets (on August 3rd, 2014) are thinking when it comes to him?  He hasn't even been promoted to triple A yet, let alone to the Mets, yet just about every single night, he doesn't give up any runs, and has at least 1 K!  His problem (walks) seem to be much better to?  What is preventing him from not only getting moved up to triple A, but even going right past that and getting called up to the Mets!!  Surely they can make room for a reliever with his stuff, no? I would love to hear back from you on this, because I honestly value your opinion on Met prospects. Thanks, Tommy

            Mack – Thank you Tommy for your kind words in your email.

  Leathersich has suffered from the same problem other Mets pitchers have… being successful in both New York State and Nevada.

Regarding AAA, he has pitched plenty of times there… actually 28 appearances last year… and produced a horrible 7.76-ERA. Yes, the K/9 were still off the charts (14.59), but his BB/9 rose to 9.00.

We’re into the last month of the minor league season and I just don’t see many roster changes coming up. In addition, I’m not sure the Mets want to send any more of their prospects to Vegas. The contract with them as an affiliate runs out at the end of this season and I don’t think the Mets are going back to the PCL.

Lastly, expect the ‘Leatherman’ to get an invite to the Big Boy ST camp anyway.



Minor Notes –

Hardest Mets to strike out: 1. Murphy 12.6%, 2. Abreu 14.9%, 3. d'Arnaud 17.6%... Mets with most strikeouts: 1. Recker 31.4%, 2. Campbell 26.0%, 3. Granderson 23.2%... Red Sox designate Mike Carp for assignment… Mets with most games of at least 1 XBH and 1 BB in '14: Duda (20) Granderson (10) Tejada (9) Murphy (9) Wright (8)…


18 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Hey Mack, good to see my buddy Ar-nal-do pictured today. Anyway, a friend of mine suggests that the Mets revisit Nelson Cruz this off-season. Of course, if the Mets even considered that, it would mean the fences need to come in again. What do you think? Has the Cruz Ship sailed for good?

Nice to see Wilmer offensively productive in back-to-back games when most others (including Tejada) were unproductive - just noting that is all.

If they can move Gee and Niese and a few pieces for a real stud, I am all ears. Unless they want a 10 man rotation by mid-2015.

Matt Reynolds suddenly showing pop and scorching hot after a short cold snap (18 hits and 3 homers in his last 9 games). Hitting .350 this year in AA and AAA, one has to think of how fast Jake deGrom came along and wonder if Reynolds (hitting a mere .350 this year) is imitating Jake's path to success and will be our next SS.

Reese Kaplan said...

I've said many times once they realize that the pipe dream of playoff contention has sailed, they need to play either Flores or Reynolds to see what they have for the future. They already know what they have in Tejada.

I fully expect Terry to sit David Wright today to give Flores (gasp!) three consecutive starts.

Hobie said...

Mack,

The Gregg Maddux “welcome to the Show” story reminded me of an antithetical story about Steve Garvey.

Before his marital problems blew up his political aspirations, Garvey was being considered for a Republican senatorial primary contest. Davey Lopes was asked about what he thought of his ex-teammate’s candidacy during an in-dugout interview during a nationally televised game,

Lopes’ response was, “Steve Garvey is a real gentleman, doesn’t pee in the shower or anything.”

Tom Brennan said...

Isn't Maddox FDA approved and sold over the counter for bladder control issues? Side effects being uncontrollable urges to pee in the shower?

Dallas said...

Any notice Flores great play at 2nd base yesterday! Really hoping to see the Mets make a move on bringing up DenDekker and DFA CY. After the offensive ineptness this last weekend it could be a nice infusion. Hopefully the Mets can get more than a couple of hits today to finish the series.

David L. Whitman said...

Just checked the line-up and guess who's not in it today???!!!

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I loved the idea of Cruz the first time and would welcome having him in 2015.

Hell, I would welcome Sen. Ted Cruise with a bat in his hand

Mack Ade said...

I just have this feeling that the Mets are going to go on some 2-13 run about now and put all this wild card speculation to bed.

Only them can I see these guys make any personnel changes to this lineup

Reese Kaplan said...

Well, surprisingly, I'm going to defend Terry Collins (halfheartedly) as I would be the first to slam him for sitting David Wright after he FINALLY got a hit. I would similarly admonish him for benching Duda and Murphy, his two best hitters, who he decided to leave out of the same game yesterday.

Now if only there was an underperforming hitter somewhere on the diamond where Flores could play...nah, that would make too much sense!

David L. Whitman said...

Mack-

It's not like this line-up is a juggernaut or anything either. TPTB's insistence on trotting out Tejada and one of the Young's is just flat out dumb-unless you want to go on a 2-13 run put the playoff nonsense to bed and get in position for a protected draft pick next summer.

At least there would be some logic then to these ridiculous line-up decisions.

Otherwise, if it is TC's call on the line-ups, which I doubt, he should be fired. You don't sit one of your top prospect hitters, who seems to finally be finding his hitting stroke, in favor of the other weak-hitting option.

Further it sends a lousy message to Flores. "Way to go kid you're hitting the ball well so as a reward we will bench you again."

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, Ted Cruz would put up big #'s - and that's being very conservative.

The Closer said...

Thomas,

In regards to Nelson Cruz, I hope the Orioles resign him, which would make it harder to resign Nick Markakis and not pick up his $17.5 M team option, $2M buy out. Nick Markakis would be a perfect pickup for the Mets to play RF and shift Granderson to LF where his arm is better suited anyway.

I doubt Markakis hits the free agent pool, but if he did, what a great pickup he would be and do what it takes to add Tulo and we become the favorites in the NL east. He's only 31 and a deal similar to Granderson's (4yr, $60M) would be ideal.

1. Grandy - LF
2. Murphy - 2B
3. Tulo - SS
4. Duda - 1B
5. Wright - 3B
6. Markakis - RF
7. D'Arnaud - C
8. Lagares - CF

Or some variation of that lineup.

David L. Whitman said...

Tulo is a major talent but he's had trouble staying healthy and on the field in his 20's, I can't imagine that situation improving in his 30's. Granted even only 100 or so games of him a year is a major upgrade over what the team currently has.

bgreg98180 said...

Mack
Unfortunately Alderson's passive approach to team building and trades has resulted in the Mets missing out on one possible buy low candidate in Matt Kemp.
As he is getting healthier he has brought his overall numbers up quickly.
From all reports, he was available at a reduced talent cost AND with the Dodgers picking up part of his salary.
Dodger stadium is big too, so Citifield should not have a big effect on him either.
Maybe Kemp isn't a $20million/yr player anymore, but is he a $15million/yr? Or at least worth a chance at the lower cost?
Alderson's passive and headstrong style may not be appropriate anymore as the Mets get closer and closer to actually contending.
Maybe he is the best GM ever when it comes to restocking a farm system and finding hidden gems.
But is he capable of strengthening the major league team into the strongest contender possible by aggressively and decisively addressing weaknesses promptly?
For example: why did the plan of contending this year have to be abandoned because one player was injured?
Even if that player was the team's best pitcher (Harvey).
Does this mean Alderson's plans will always fail just because 1 or 2 players are injured?
If so, how does Alderson ever intend to contend?
Maybe it is time to thank Alderson & Collins forall they have done....but move on with planners & management that is more capable for this next level of the Mets rebuilding

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

I'm afraid we are all looking at the final version of the 2014 Mets, minus when rosters expand in September

bgreg98180 said...

I know
Alderson should not be allowed to put this team in the same position next year

The Closer said...

I believe a lot of Tulo and many of the Rockies players can point to the thin air of Colorado to their injury problems as well. I read somewhere that the Rockies have been in the top 5 in DL days for more than 1/2 of the years they've been in existence.

That could be they either have a lot of guys that get injured a lot, or the thin air has something to do with the body's ability to recover and stay stretched, amongst other things that I'm not able to speak to since I have no direct knowledge of.

Who's to say if that's true that Tulo will have the same problems here? Many of his issues were related to his legs, which may not be as big of an issue here in NY.

Just something to think about, since I have NO IDEA why some people wouldn't want him on this roster, regardless of his price tag in prospects or salary. He instantly makes this team credible and if we had another SS even relatively close to taking over SS, I would say stick to the plan of developing our own guys but the next chance is Amed Rosario, who's not a guarantee by any means and still 3-5 years away at minimum, which is when Tulo can be moved to 3B or 1B, depending upon how Wright is at that point. If Cecchini was someone like Baez, Lindor, Russell, I'd be a little less hesitant,mouth he's clearly not.

We have plenty of SP talent to boast and very little by way of top level talent to display at SS, unless of course Reynolds or Herrera can be those answers.

Reese Kaplan said...

In yet another stunning non-development, the Mets have a middle infielder tearing it up in AA yet no place to play him. They have a glaring vacancy at SS, so it would make so much sense to let him play there every day for the rest of the year to see how he responds to it. Instead, they keep him at 2B. I can see him being Flores II. (Despite his first-ever solid hitting season, Wilfredo Tovar will never be the kind of hitter Herrrera is showing already).