DYNASTY? by Tom Brennan


DYNASTY? by Tom Brennan

Never judge a how good a player is when he is ice hot or how bad he is when ice cold.  I've been married over 30 years now, and I keep telling my wife a hot streak is coming.  She still won't let me out of the doghouse.
Hot and cold. The same can be said about teams as a whole.  The Mets started the season a sensationally hot 13-3, then floundered for 3 months, playing more than 10 games below .500, which certainly qualifies as cold. They have played roughly two dozen games over .500 in the ensuing 2 months, and you can't get much hotter than that outside of the late season supernova surge of the 1969 Mets.

So how good are these 2015 Mets? Terrific acquisitions, terrific pitching, both starting and relieving, and terrific hitting for average and power. In a word, terrific.

But the 1969 Mets lagged in 1970, and finally got back to the World Series in 1973 despite being 10 under heading into September. They could not sustain it.

The 2015 team, by contrast, smells like a perennially playoff bound team to me if the right moves are made. After all, deGrom is awesome, Harvey is great, Matz is masterful, and frankly, as good as those 3 are, Thor blows my mind when I watch him pitch and may become the best of the 4.
And if the post surgery Wheeler is better than the pre-Tommy John Zach who pitched probably impaired with a sore arm, this just could turn out to be the best starting 5 - ever.  I know, I am just too Met-centric.

Anyway, relief-wise, Familia is the best we've ever had, or at least on a par with the great Billy Wagner.  Other solid pieces too, and the bullpen appears to be above average for 2016 and hopefully longer.

Hitting-wise is where it will get interesting. Over the past 2 months, this team has probably hit better than any Mets team I can ever remember for a 2 month stretch. I love the power, as the Mets have taken a page out of the Yankee power playbook and the fans are loving every minute. Just getting a guy like Conforto in the draft, too, is an incredible, sustainable boost for the future offense.  The same can be said of d'Arnaud via trade.  The Yanks had Jeter, Rivera, Williams and Posada, and that internal core was the fuel to 2 strong decades for them.  We've got that now.

The question will be, will Sandy see all the offensive ingredients here as potential dynasty pieces and pay for Cespedes, for starters. And make the right call as to whether to keep guys like Murphy, who has been terrific. Guys who strike out under 50 times don't grow on trees. 

Don't go cheap, a huge fan base in attendance will follow a boldly assembled great team, and we could have anywhere from a perennially playoff bound team to a dynasty.

I am excited. Even before this year's playoffs start. Just looking ahead. Excited.  Just. Plain. Excited.

And in the here and now, I may just get to my pre-season predictions of 94 wins and 700+ runs scored.  Though I must admit that how they're getting there I never could have envisioned back in the spring.
Sit back and enjoy. I sure will.



Lew Rhodes said...

Yep - just like the dynasty we had in 1986 and 2006

The good news here I guess is that 4 of our stud pitchers have already had TJ surgery

Ideally we are built to compete for a good solid 3-5 year window - and, since the team salary is low, we can afford to keep our home grown studs for longer.

My only quibble with your article is that Herrera is going to be a far superior player to Murphy - his bat is solid, but not fantastic - Herrera tracks to be a truly special player.

I only keep Murphy if he agrees to be what Kelly Johnson is now

Mack Ade said...

For me, a dynasty needs both a healthy roster and a healthy payroll

Thomas Brennan said...

@ Lew - or Murphy becomes our 1B until Smith arrives, and only if Duda can bring in huge value. I also think Herrera could be special, and needs lots of MLB playing time in 2016.

@Mack - agreed on $$$. If they try to go cheap, it could easily backfire on them in future years.

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

You have to have someone like Cespedes to build around

Thomas Brennan said...

Definitely Cespedes. Him, Conforto, and d'Arnaud would be quite an offensive core for this team in the years to come.

Anonymous said...

I am living in the present for now, thank you very much.

Moving forward, Sandy will have to make some key decisions this winter. We will see where the numbers go with Cespedes. Somewhere there's a line for how far to go with this guy.

My friend says, "He's not Piazza," and I agree. But signing him would make the Mets frontrunners for next season (for what that's worth) and it would help sell tickets, too. At the same time, it could get to a point where a smart man walks away.

I think Flores/Johnson could capably fill the Murphy role. And I'll say it again: I love Murph!

James Preller

eraff said...

Murphy, Cespedes, Johnson, Uribe.... will they be here?.... will Wright be healthy for a meaningful stretch--- this was an epic horror offensively for 2/3 of the season. Lose ALL of those bats????

Of course, they can try to repeat by adding deadline deals---but that is a big future cost...they will need a plan to keep/replace those bats....

...which is the reason this subject makes me unhappy.

Adam Smith said...

I have absolutely no idea what they are going to do about Cespedes. The situation argues strongly for them to re-sign him, but how high can they go? And, even if they can afford him, will they talk themselves out of him despite all he's done because he's not their type of player (free swinger, occasional lack of hustle)?

On Murphy, I keep saying that, particularly with DW's health risks, I'd make him the QO and try to keep him around for another year while Herrera gets settled into the bigs. Johnson and Uribe will most likely be gone, and I'd be just fine with a rotating IF of Duda/Murph/Herrera/Flores/Tejada and Wright.

Given what this lineup looks like with Cespedes, Duda, TDA, Conforto and Murphy in the middle of it, plus whatever you get out of DW, and expected growth from Flores, we're definitely a top 3 team in the NL going in, and a prohibitive favorite to crush the division.

Make it so.

Thomas Brennan said...

Adam, I am in total agreement with that scenario. Pay Cespedes too, go high as you need to.

Anonymous said...

I think $15+ is too much for Daniel Murphy, especially with Herrera on the way.

Flores can be the backup 3B, probably getting 40 games there. He's a guy I'd have all over the field and I think he effectively replaces Murphy.

Would need Johnson, or a Johnson type, to further supplement the loss of Murphy.

There's no way on earth the NY Mets get both Cespedes and Murphy.

James Preller

Mack's Mets © 2012