Mack’s Morning Report – 9-19-15 – Yoenes Cespedes, Dominic Smith, Amed Rosario, Travis d’Arnaud


Good morning.

Comment From dan -

How much do you think is too much for Cespedes. Feel like the Mets are in a tough spot because of so much public outcry to bring him back. Kind of worried they will give him a regrettable contract

Dave Cameron: If I was the Mets, I’d probably try to convince ownership to go high AAV/low years. So something like 5/$130M or something. In the next few years, Cespedes should remain a pretty good player, though not at his current level. I don’t think I’d want to pay a lot for years 6-7-8 though.

Comment From Frank - Who do you think has the biggest chance of getting overpaid this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Cespedes.

          Mack – I agree with Cameron.

It really doesn’t matter how far the Mets get in the playoffs. Everyone in the front office know that this team got this far with ‘Yo’ carrying the tem on his back.
5/$130M may be low.

I’d offer $25mil for the first two years and $30mil for the last three.

Comment From MSW - Are you as bullish as Keith Law about Dom Smith? Will his raw power start to translate to games anytime soon?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure where Keith saw him, but I like Dom Smith, I think he’ll be a 50 FV this offseason. 60 raw power but more gap to gap in games right now. Doubles at that age against older pitching in two (Savannah and St Lucie) parks that suppress homers is not something to worry about. It’s in there.

Mack – I’ve drawn a lot of attention talking about the lack of home runs from Smith, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he will someday be the future Mets first baseman.

Smith never tried to hit it out of Savannah’s Grayson Stadium and he might have targets his ‘gap’ game the same this past season when he playing for St. Lucie. Now, he will move on to Binghamton and it will be interesting to see if the Mets return to the negotiation table with Lucas Duda and his agent for a long term contract. My guess is they won’t and I would look for Daniel Murphy-like bat of Smith to hit Queens possibly on opening day 2017.

Comment From MSW - Is Amed Rosario still the Mets’ SS of the future? I only have his stat line to go off of, which seems fairly meh, and I’ve heard very little about him otherwise this season.
Kiley McDaniel: He’s a dude-dude. I saw him a few times this year and he’s so quick-twitch and talented that I’m not sure he even knows what all he’s capable of yet. One AB he looked bad late on a 93 fastball, then fouled off four straight 96 mph fastballs and then hit a line drive on 95–he could clearly hit it but was guessing when he didn’t need to be.

He’s two years younger than the real prospects in Hi-A an 3-5 years younger than the fringe/non prospects in the league fighting for their jobs. And he was league average with the bat while stealing some bases and playing SS. It was a very impressive season.

Mack – See, this is why you read as much as you can find from writers like McDaniel who are paid to follow prospects. On paper, it didn’t look like Rosario stat lined well this season, but after reading Kiley’s reasoning, he’s probably should be considered as the #1 SS prospect on a team that seems to have multiple future options at that position.

Barry wrote –

Hey bud. Know you are enjoying this Mets run for the Pennant as much as all of us. I don't have a question as much as I have an opinion to make. I've been commenting on Mack's Mets all summer "don't sign Lucas Duda long term." It looks like the Mets got lucky that Lucas and his reps didn't take what the Mets were offering contract wise this winter. His power is enticing and defense is fine but he is far from clutch and too streaky of a ball player. He doesn't fit the fabric of this club. Now with 1B Dominic Smith this summer getting player of the year in the Florida State league and Lucas' on/off year plus injuries I assume they'd be reluctant to re- open talks.

Mack – It’s interesting how you wrote and sent this in to me right after I wrote the piece on Smith earlier in this post.

I love Duda’s power but I have never been a fan of his hot/cold approach to the game. He has; however, already proven he can hit major league home runs in the 30 range, something that’s hard to turn your back on.

I like Smith… I really do, but hitting doubles in Florida is a long way away from duplicating that against major league pitching.

As for Duda, it wouldn’t hurt his chances for a return to the negotiation table if he finished strong. He is the elephant we already have in the room.

Josh asked –
Hey Mack, during this offensive rise there has been a corresponding downgrade of pitching performance.  Any correlation to d'Arnaud being behind the plate and possibly calling games differently? Hope all is well with you.  Love the blog and the morning reports!

          Mack – Thanks for the question, Josh.

I don’t think d’Arnaud being behind the plate has resulted in worse pitching results by Mets pitchers. I have never met a pitcher that could be talked into throwing a pitch he doesn’t want to throw.

I think everybody is wearing down in a season where most of the Mets are used to throwing in the towel at this point.

I also have never heard or read about a Mets pitcher complaining about d’Arnaud. I’ve always been told they love him.


Thomas Brennan said...

Hi Mack, question on Duda is could you keep Murph for 1B and trade Duda. Murph would get you to Smith in a year or two. Duda might be a very lucrative trade. All predicated on keeping Cespedes. Of course, Duda weighed in nicely last night.

I still prefer Muno over Rosario...he is more seasoned and his name is shorter :)

Gary Seagren said...

We are in a great situation with the Dude being as we still have arb with him for 2 more years so the question is will Murph take a 2/3 yr deal to bridge to Smith so we could trade Lucas and Lagares and then adding the money saved from Colon, Parnell, Gee and Blevins coming off the books there should be more than enough to sign YC. I'm in the camp that says that the next 3/4 years is our window of opportunity and we MUST capitalize on it. Our best chance at WS title is with YC so this is a question for Mack....what's a couple of years run at a title worth?

bob gregory said...

Cespedes us earning his next contract.
He has proven his worth and value to the Mets.

Just pay the man what he is worth thus off season.
Stop looking for bargains.
Stop looking for excuses not to sign him.

Sign him and enjoy what he brings to the team.

Ernest Dove said...

Time for the st Lucie prospects loving macks Mets writer to chime in again in 3.....2......1....

Not only is Rosario just 19yrs old but he looks 12. Talent his age can't all be Bryce harper or mike trout. I still say he has an anderlton simmons glove......with ability to make solid contact......can steal bases.....and has a great arm.....

And Dom Smith..........hey maybe we can consider him a better James Loney........or consider him a Daniel Murphy. ......if Murph had gold glove defense.

Thomas Brennan said...

Rosario has a rosy future, from everything I read. He may have his "growth spurt" this winter. I remember Tejada looking like he was 15 when he first joined the Mets.

I think Smith will be a superior hitter to Murph (who was wonderful last night) plus the good glove.

Anonymous said...

Dom is more Keith Hernandez then James Loney........I see him hitting for a high average, with solid power and excellent defense. That is a guy you want on your team and he will be worth the wait.

Keep the Dude until Dom is ready (as stated we have two more years of control on Lucas which lines up really well with Dom's timeline).

Health permitting, we could have an infield of Smith at first, Herrera at second, Rosario at short and Wright at third by 2018 (with Wilmer and Gavin as primary backups off the bench). NICE!

Ernest Dove said...

Will be interesting to see what Mets do with cecchini and Wilmer. .......
Wilmer been hitting .300 for two months now. And there's a chance that murph and kelly Johnson won't be stealing away playing time from him next year.

And cecchini has to go to next highest level. ......I wonder of matt Reynolds becomes a non protected player and/or a utility aaa player like Tovar was this year.

Zozo said...

Offer Murphy the $15 million one year contract and if he signs somewhere else you get compensation for him. He could give Wright some needed rest and still play second and first as well.
Don't give Duda the contract and let him play out the last 2 years and Smith can be put at first in 2018.
Sign Cespedes to a 7 year $175 million contract. We will and should be in Playoff contention for at least 5 of those years and he will have been money very well spent.
Have Lagares have his surgery and tell him we will see him in 2018.
Niese will be our 5th starter til Wheeler gets back in July.

bob gregory said...

I still don't understand why people keep pushing Flores into reserve/ backup roles for players that haven't proven themselves yet.

Sometimes it is a trap to keep falling in love with prospects while not appreciating the major league talent already filling out the lineup.

Flores needed to hit? Ok his avg is up into the .260-.270 range.

Flores needed to improve his defense? Ok, he has proven himself as a capable 2nd baseman and has improved his SS defense.

Flores needs to get more walks? Ok, his walks are low, but have you watched Flores's at bats? It is amazing just how many strikes he is thrown. He is not swinging at many balls. He can't (nobody can) get a walk if the pitcher doesn't throw 4 balls.

Clutch? Hands down proven with how many big hits he has had this year and previous years.

Trade him because there is an offer that you can't refuse? Ok...understandable.

Push him into a reserve/backup role because of Herrera's promise? No, that just doesn't make sense.

Herrera comes up as a backup/ reserve and performs better than Flores over extended time? Ok.....Then and only then is it justified to demote Flores to a backup/ reserve.

Mack Ade said...

To all -

You already have my opinions on these subjects in the post, but I want to remind all of you about the difference between a 'prospect' and someone that has already produced positively at the major league level.

History has proven one should stay with what got you there and not to cound your chickens before they have hatched.

Ernest Dove said...

All I know is that in what Mets and coaches have called the most important and playoff like pressure impact games they've had recently against nats and yanks, one Wilmer Flores has been in the lineup every time regardless if opposing pitcher is a righty or lefty. .........that says something.

Anonymous said...

I love Wilmer and if he is the better choice, then Herrera will be the bench piece or trade bait......nice "problem" to have.

On a side note, this fan base has certainly changed course over the past two months! In May, folks wanted to dump Wilmer and now he is the potential future at 2B!

Lastly, imagine of the trade with Milwaukee actually went through? UGH.....we would be without Wilmer (now and in the future), plus Wheeler would be gone AND we would have a busted up version of Carlos Gomez on the roster (and no Cespedes).

I would think that our outlook, like our position in the standings, would be VASTLY different.


bob gregory said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bob gregory said...

All aboard the Flores bandwagon????

Watch your step.

All are welcome.

Next stop?
Get Cespedes into the third spot of the lineup.

Adam Smith said...

Duda is an interesting question. Yes, he had a rough stretch in the middle of the season, but it's quite possible that he was dealing with a back injury but kept running out there because no one else was hitting. First two months of the season, and a three week stretch in August he was unstoppable, as he was for much of the second half last year. When Duda gets hot, he is a beast, with 35 HR power and hits ropes everywhere. The guy is still cheap and I'm happy to keep him and see if he can put it together next year for a full season. In fact, with his little breakout last night, I have hopes that he's about to get hot. If you put last year's second half Duda in the middle of this current lineup, it starts to look very, very scary.

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