Mack’s Morning Report – 9-19-15 – Yoenes Cespedes, Dominic Smith, Amed Rosario, Travis d’Arnaud

Good morning.

Comment From dan -

How much do you think is too much for Cespedes. Feel like the Mets are in a tough spot because of so much public outcry to bring him back. Kind of worried they will give him a regrettable contract

Dave Cameron: If I was the Mets, I’d probably try to convince ownership to go high AAV/low years. So something like 5/$130M or something. In the next few years, Cespedes should remain a pretty good player, though not at his current level. I don’t think I’d want to pay a lot for years 6-7-8 though.

Comment From Frank - Who do you think has the biggest chance of getting overpaid this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Cespedes.

          Mack – I agree with Cameron.

It really doesn’t matter how far the Mets get in the playoffs. Everyone in the front office know that this team got this far with ‘Yo’ carrying the tem on his back.

5/$130M may be low.

I’d offer $25mil for the first two years and $30mil for the last three.

Comment From MSW - Are you as bullish as Keith Law about Dom Smith? Will his raw power start to translate to games anytime soon?

Kiley McDaniel: Not sure where Keith saw him, but I like Dom Smith, I think he’ll be a 50 FV this offseason. 60 raw power but more gap to gap in games right now. Doubles at that age against older pitching in two (Savannah and St Lucie) parks that suppress homers is not something to worry about. It’s in there.

Mack – I’ve drawn a lot of attention talking about the lack of home runs from Smith, but that doesn’t mean I don’t think he will someday be the future Mets first baseman.

Smith never tried to hit it out of Savannah’s Grayson Stadium and he might have targets his ‘gap’ game the same this past season when he playing for St. Lucie. Now, he will move on to Binghamton and it will be interesting to see if the Mets return to the negotiation table with Lucas Duda and his agent for a long term contract. My guess is they won’t and I would look for Daniel Murphy-like bat of Smith to hit Queens possibly on opening day 2017.

Comment From MSW - Is Amed Rosario still the Mets’ SS of the future? I only have his stat line to go off of, which seems fairly meh, and I’ve heard very little about him otherwise this season.

Kiley McDaniel: He’s a dude-dude. I saw him a few times this year and he’s so quick-twitch and talented that I’m not sure he even knows what all he’s capable of yet. One AB he looked bad late on a 93 fastball, then fouled off four straight 96 mph fastballs and then hit a line drive on 95–he could clearly hit it but was guessing when he didn’t need to be.

He’s two years younger than the real prospects in Hi-A an 3-5 years younger than the fringe/non prospects in the league fighting for their jobs. And he was league average with the bat while stealing some bases and playing SS. It was a very impressive season.

Mack – See, this is why you read as much as you can find from writers like McDaniel who are paid to follow prospects. On paper, it didn’t look like Rosario stat lined well this season, but after reading Kiley’s reasoning, he’s probably should be considered as the #1 SS prospect on a team that seems to have multiple future options at that position.

Barry wrote –

Hey bud. Know you are enjoying this Mets run for the Pennant as much as all of us. I don't have a question as much as I have an opinion to make. I've been commenting on Mack's Mets all summer "don't sign Lucas Duda long term." It looks like the Mets got lucky that Lucas and his reps didn't take what the Mets were offering contract wise this winter. His power is enticing and defense is fine but he is far from clutch and too streaky of a ball player. He doesn't fit the fabric of this club. Now with 1B Dominic Smith this summer getting player of the year in the Florida State league and Lucas' on/off year plus injuries I assume they'd be reluctant to re- open talks.

Mack – It’s interesting how you wrote and sent this in to me right after I wrote the piece on Smith earlier in this post.

I love Duda’s power but I have never been a fan of his hot/cold approach to the game. He has; however, already proven he can hit major league home runs in the 30 range, something that’s hard to turn your back on.

I like Smith… I really do, but hitting doubles in Florida is a long way away from duplicating that against major league pitching.

As for Duda, it wouldn’t hurt his chances for a return to the negotiation table if he finished strong. He is the elephant we already have in the room.

Josh asked –

Hey Mack, during this offensive rise there has been a corresponding downgrade of pitching performance.  Any correlation to d'Arnaud being behind the plate and possibly calling games differently? Hope all is well with you.  Love the blog and the morning reports!

          Mack – Thanks for the question, Josh.

I don’t think d’Arnaud being behind the plate has resulted in worse pitching results by Mets pitchers. I have never met a pitcher that could be talked into throwing a pitch he doesn’t want to throw.

I think everybody is wearing down in a season where most of the Mets are used to throwing in the towel at this point.

I also have never heard or read about a Mets pitcher complaining about d’Arnaud. I’ve always been told they love him.