9/4/15

Mack’s Morning Report – 9-4-15 – Next Week's Schedule, Projected Mets 2016 25-Man, What Would I Do Over 30 Years Ago

19 comments

Good morning.


Next week’s schedules for the Mets and Nats could determine the outcome of the season.

They will go up against each other for three games starting Monday (Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, and Jacob deGrom are scheduled to pitch in Washington. The Mets then move on the Atlanta for four games on the road through Sunday.

The Nats will have off on Thursday and then travel to Miami for three games to end the week. 



It’s not too early to look ahead to 2016 regardless of how this team finishes this season. There are currently 32 players on the expanded September ’25-man’ roster, however, eight of them (Bartolo Colon, Yoenis Cespedes, Tyler Clippard, Daniel Murphy, Juan Uribe, Eric O’Flaherty, Bobby Parnell, and Kelly Johnson) are not under a current 2016 contract and are scheduled to hit the free agent market. So is Jerry Blevins, who is on the DL.

In addition, recent September additions like Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Eric Young, Jr., Eric Campbell would be considered longshots to make their way back to the 25-man squad.
So, where does this leave us?

Pitchers (starters) – (5) Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Jonathan Niese, Noah Syndergaard

Pitchers (relievers) – (5) Jeurys Familia, Sean Gilmartin, Eric Goeddel, Hansel Robles, Carlos Torres

Catchers – (2) – Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki

Infield – (5)  Lucas Duda, Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, David Wright, Dilson Herrera

Outfield – (4)  Michael Conforto, Michael Cuddyer, Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares,

That’s 21 players with four opening day openings… probably a 5th outfielder, a utility infielder, and two relievers.

There are others that remain on the disabled list and may or may not have a future on this team… pitchers Buddy Carlyle, Josh Edgin, Jack Leathersich, Zack Wheeler, and Rafael Montero… and infielder Wilfredo Tovar.

Lastly, Las Vegas could possibly supply Dario Alvarez, Darrell Cecilliani, or Brandon Nimmo to fill one or more of these slots.

Talent wise, this team would be greatly diminished from the one being put on the field this month. The secret once again will be a healthy rotation. If Montero can bounce back and be the spot starter/long man needed, followed by a healthy Wheeler around July, the Mets could easily dominate this division just through their starters.
Hitting wise, you have five potential players that can hit 20+ home runs a year… 

Wright, Duda, Flores, d’Arnaud, Conforto. Add 15+ for Cuddyer and Herrera. What you don’t have is the ‘Cespedes factor’ that glues the lineup together.



Barry asked –

Morning sir. Hope things are well with you! Can I ask a non Mets question to flavor up this Friday's blog? If you could go back thirty years what would you do differently?
I am truly interested and know I can learn from your wisdom. Thanks in Advance

          Mack – Wow, where do I start?

          Well, first thing first… 30 years ago three of us sold an AM/FM radio station combo that we had bought a few years before that for $1mil, for $4.4mil cash. We took that money and pissed it all away in a purchase of two radio stations in the Florida panhandle. If I could go back, I would take my $560K payout from the original deal, walk away, buy AOL stock, and… well, you get the picture.

Secondly, I would have taken these 30 years to remain in the broadcasting industry, but as a manager in an established broadcast company rather than an arrogant independent owner. I would have worked for a company that could supply me a long term health plan, 401K, and stock options if they were to go public. Everyone eventually did back then and those that had this stipulation built into their contracts, became instantly rich. Speaking of contracts, I would never have worked for anyone again without an iron clad contract approved by mu attorney, not theirs.

And lastly, but most importantly, I would have spent more time with my wife and family. I had already quit drinking/partying 30 years ago, but I still spent too much time away from my primary duties as a husband and father. I missed so many dance recitals and school nights because I thought it was more import to out to dinner with a client or travel to another city for a business meeting (what we used to call golf outings).


Hope this answered your question.

19 comments:

Lew Rhodes said...

Mack - your last paragraph is the smartest thing you have ever written on this site. As much as my kids drive me crazy (I have 4 under 11) - I know my time with them is fleeting, and I try to enjoy it

Mack Ade said...

Lew -

It was my biggest mistake.

I missed countless school presentations, outings, and family gatherings thinking my primary role was to provide rather than protect.

I'll never get that time back.

My daughter asked me to teach her how to kick a volleyball when she was in around the 3rd grade. I said I would begin to the next weekend and 'never got around to it'.

I can't loo at a volleyball today and not remember that.

Lew Rhodes said...

Baseball wise - that roster is pretty solid - especially the pitching - with so much young cost controlled talent they need to go big for Cespedes

Given how cheap the core young players are, I would front load an offer for the first 3 years and make him cheaper in the last 3 - makes him easier to move

Ernest Dove said...

Good advice Mack,
I myself am now a regular at chuck e cheese. Yeah I no longer live a 4 hr drive from Vegas, but I've got kiddie Vegas with my princess.

Thomas Brennan said...

Family time is very important...you are right there. Now besides your own, you've adopted the Mack's Met family - a big, happy dysfunctionalbunch....except for Lou LOL.

Next year, speaking of team glue, Mets need to buy a big tube of Cespedes Glue and let's win some championships before we're all drooling in a nursing home somewhere. No time like the present to spend money to make the turnstiles spin rapidly, Mr Wilpon.

TP said...

Mack,
We've all made our share of mistakes, it is part of being human. And, none of us can turn back the clock. That said, so long as we are given today, we can do our best to right the wrongs. I'm hoping you have that opportunity...even in ways that seem to be small/insignificant, it always matters. Enough pontificating...

Following yesterday's discussion, I think you can add Reed to the list of relievers. Mets control him, and hopefully if he performs well here they don't cheap out. $5 to $6 million for and 8th inning guy with 100+ MLB saves in his prime years in a bargain for a competitive team.

I want to stay in the moment as our GM said, and I agree next week will be huge...just hold the lead and take games off the schedule.

Regarding this winter and 2016, it will certainly be interesting, but for the first time in a long time they go in strong, and can do several things to improve with the roster spots they don't control. Cespedes almost certainly won't happen given the unique FA contract he has, but that should not cause panic. They have money, very good prospects, and a solid core on the 25 man roster. Given good player health, this will be hard, even for Jeff W, to screw up.

Ernest Dove said...

Hey doesn't Matt Reynolds HAVE to be 40man protected this off-season? I wonder if he will quietly be exposed to rule 5. Injured or not he completely faded towards end of year while Wilmer tejada combo excelled. Plus Cecchini broke out and Tovar already I guess cleared waivers and provides solid D and organizational backup.

Mack Ade said...

Lew -

There has to be a way to convince Cespedes to stay. He's been the difference this season, he seems happy, the Mets can make him richer, and there is a huge Cuban fan base in NYC

Mack Ade said...

TP -

You're right about Reed. I wrote that portion of today's post before that was explained to me yesterday.

Anonymous said...

Huge week of baseball coming up, folks. This week. Now.

I'm apprehensive.

James Preller

Bob Sugar said...

Thank you Mack

bob gregory said...

Regarding next year:

If there is anything that should have been learned from the beginning of this season, it should be that even a very good pitching staff will not lead to dominating the division without a capable offense.

Going into next year with out a player like Cespedes and capable bench players will not lead to domination.

The strong pitching staff may lead to keeping competitive as it did this year thanks to the Nationals under performing. It is not a guarantee of domination without better balance with offense.

Additionally: the Mets need to begin looking at a leadoff replacement for after Granderson leaves. Not just a player that might be able to the job but also determine from what position that player will be playing in the field.
1b, 3b, LF, CF, 2b, ss, and catcher are already claimed by incumbants that are probably not suited for leadoff.
Tejada and Lagares have auditioned in the leadoff position in the past but neither have impressed.
That leaves rf, or replacing cf or ss with a leadoff hitter.
Next year, while Granderson is older and in his last year would be the best opportunity to begin auditioning or planning who the replacement table setter will be and organizing the roster according to which position that player will be playing on the field.

Lew Rhodes said...

Baseball wise - that roster is pretty solid - especially the pitching - with so much young cost controlled talent they need to go big for Cespedes

Given how cheap the core young players are, I would front load an offer for the first 3 years and make him cheaper in the last 3 - makes him easier to move

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

We have one more year of Granderson, presumedly leading off.

Two candidates for 2017 could be Cecchini or Herrera (14-SB this year)

Thomas Brennan said...

@ Bob: Grandy Man is inked thru 2017.

Adam Smith said...

Problem is that the Mets MO these days is to back load, rather than front load contracts, which says that the problem for the org is current cash flow.

bob gregory said...

Cecchini and Herrera as candidates means that they would need to start being auditioned next year in some part time opportunities.

That would mean both or one would have to be on the major league roster.
That would lead to decisions needing to be made with Tejada, Murphy, and Flores. Releases, trades, or full time roles in their optimum situations for success so they can max their value in the 1st half as mid year trade chips.

I don't know about others but I always feel that there are 3 lineup spots that are most important to fill with consistency and performance.
These are: Leadoff, 3rd place, and cleanup. A good offense fills these spots first and builds the rest of the lineup around them.

Looking at the roster Mack has listed:

Leadoff is ok for next year with Granderson but age could create performance concerns moving forward.

3rd place: no consistency between Duda/ Wright back issues, Conforto's age, D'Arnaud's age and duties as catcher requiring rest and health track record.

4th place: see above.

This is why a player like Cespedes is a necessity next year. To fill the 3rd or 4th lineup spot with consistency and performance. (Another reason Collins drives me crazy batting Cespedes 2nd by the way)
If not Cespedes, who then? Upton is available, but that will require about the same $$ As Cespedes and losing a draft pick.
Others through trade? That means losing young talent.

Because of what has already been given up, the alternatives on the free/trade markets, and what would have to be given up for alternatives.....

To me the answer is clear. The only logical answer is to focus on Cespedes and resign yourself as an organization that it will be expensive.
As long as the contract is not challenging to become or equal to Trout or Cano- like..... it is a necessity.

That leaves next year leadoff filled with auditions for replacement.
3rd or 4th place filled by Cespedes for a few years.

The other 3rd or 4th place filled by Wright/Duda with D'Arnaud, Conforto, Cuddyer (most likely still a Met) filling in when needed and the younger two auditioning as replacements moving forward.

The rest of the lineup falls into place from there.

bob gregory said...

In my best reasoning, Granderson Will most likely not offer consistency and performance as a leadoff hitter past 2016.

James Preller said...

In 48 ABs against RHP, Wright has one XBH, a double.

I'm afraid that the days of him hitting 20 HRs are gone. I certainly wouldn't be penciling it in.

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