DRAFT RESULTS SINCE 2009 - Tom Brennan


DRAFT RESULTS SINCE 2009 - Tom Brennan

Lots of guys get drafted each year. Most sign; few have success in the bigs.

The Mets since 2009, the year Steve Matz was drafted, have done exceptionally well in their drafts. Why did I start with 2009? It was a weak year, except for Stevie, so I said what the heck, and started there?  You gotta start somewhere, right?
I thought an overall, categorized summary of these draftees might make that quite evident. You might think I am being too generous, or you may feel I overlooked someone.  Lots of talent. Let me recap roughly 50 guys who are still here or departed via well-targeted trades:
4 Current or Soon-to-be Major League Stars - hopefully all 4 are frequent All Stars:

Steve Matz – 2009 – 2nd round

Matt Harvey – 2010 – 1st round

Jake deGrom – 2010 - 9th round

Michael Conforto - 2014 - 1st round

(Plus Noah Syndergaard, Zach Wheeler, and Travis d'Arnaud acquired via trades, too)

4 Guys with a Great Chance to be Bona Fide Major Leaguers:

Brandon Nimmo -2011 - 1st round - his hype exceeds his performance so far

Gavin Cecchini – 2012 - 1st round - great 2015 season, hitting .317

Kevin Plawecki – 2012 - supplemental first round - may not be Travis d'Arnaud, but darned good

Dominic Smith – 2013 – 1st round - lousy first month, .330 the rest of the way, needs more HRs

18 Guys Who Might Well Become Fine to Borderline Major Leaguers (yes, 18):

Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 – 4th round - .345/.398/.581 in AAA - always dealing with hamstring issues.

Matt den Dekker - 2010 - 5th round - traded to the Nats.

Akeel Morris - 2010 - 10th round - fine year with a burp in the middle. Majors in 2016?

Eric Goeddel - 2010 - 24th round - it all depends on the elbow.

Josh Edgin - 2010 - 30th round - it all depends on how the elbow heals.

Logan Verrett - 2011 - 3rd round - homer-prone, but has made strides.

Jack Leathersich - 2011 - 5th round - it all depends on how the elbow heals.

Christian Montgomery - 2011 - 11th round - a brilliant relief season, but for a few really bad games.

Robert Gsellman - 2011 - 13th round - hit some turbulence at AA, but he's young.  Show us in 2016.

Matt Reynolds - 2012 - 2nd round - an off season and some elbow issues - which Matt in 2016?

Paul Sewald – 2012 – 10th round - sub 2.00 ERAs every level in relief - superb 2015 season in AA.

Chris Flexen - 2012 - 12th round - back strong from Tommy John - at least to AA in 2016.

LJ Mazzilli – 2013 – 4th round - lost 50 games set him back - only 1 HR in AA in 91 games. on to 2016.

Matt Oberste – 2013 – 7th round - cracked .300 mark in St Lucie - a solid hitter, need more HR pop. 

Luis Guillorme – 2013 – 10th round - MVP of S. Atlantic League. Fine offense, low power, great glove.

Jeff McNeil – 2013 – 12th round - similar to Luis, but a level higher in St Lucie (+ a cup o' Joe in AA).

Milton Ramos - 2014 - 3rd round - .340 after July, shows he's got some juice. Lots of SS competition.

Eudor Garcia -2014 - 4th round - hit really well - possible starting major league 3B by mid-2017? 

8 Talented Pitchers Traded Away:

Michael Fulmer – 2011 - suppl. 1st round – for Yoenis Cespedes (int'l signee Luis Cessa also dealt)

Cory Mazzoni - 2011 - 2nd round for Alex Torres

John Gant – 2011 – 21st round – for Uribe and Johnson

Rob Whelan – 2012 – 12th round – for Uribe and Johnson

Matt Koch – 2012 - 3rd round – for Addison Reed

Casey Meisner - 2013 3rd round - for Tyler Clippard

Brad Weick - 2014 - 7th round for Alex Torres

Those 8 are quite a collection - would have the makings of a strong major league staff in a few years.

6 Guys Who May Still Break Through and Have a Solid Career:

Tyler Pill - 2011 - 4th round - AAA was a nightmare for Tyler.  He is a AA assassin. Great hitter. 

Danny Muno - 2011 - 8th round - did little in major league debut and tailed off in AAA late.

Travis Taijeron - 2011 - 18th round - also tailed off in 2nd half in AAA, but best Met minor league hitter in terms of power, fine on base %.  Strikeouts are his continuing Achilles heel.

Corey Oswalt - 2012 - 7th round - 2016 pivotal for Corey.  He had a fine 11-5 year with the Gnats, but allows a lot of hits (153 in 129 innings).  Can he succeed at higher levels, given that red flag?

Logan Taylor - 2012 - 11th round - coming off injuries that limited him to 94 innings in 2013 and 2014, he had a solid 2015 in St Lucie: 6-2, 1.94 in last 10 outings, and 137 total innings.

Matt Bowman 2012 - 13th round - highly considered coming into 2015, he had a bleak 2015 in AAA: 7-16, 5.53, 1.68 WHIP.  2016 will be a make-or-break season for Matt.

Next: Interesting 2015 Picks, Based on Performance So Far:
Boy it is tough projecting who might be good out of the 2015 draft.  For instance:

Max Wotell is a 3rd round, 18 year old lefty. Max pitched just 10.2 innings, allowing a mere 2 hits, walking 9, fanning 16. Possibly a future Steve Matz, but he's got a long ways to go to get there.

Other 2015 draftee guys who did really well in 2015 were:
8th round catcher Pat Mazelka (.354)

9th round Kevin Kaczmarski (.355) - Appalachian League batting champ.

Desmond Lindsay – 2nd round. He does not turn 19 until 2016, and so his .263 impresses.

Corey Taylor - 7th round lefty:  18 IP, 3 ER, 16 K.

PJ Conlon - 13th round lefty: 17 IP, 8 H, 25 K, ZERO EARNED RUNS!

Vinny Siena - 14th round IF: .268 in 72 games. Faded late.

Tom McIlraith, righty: 6-1, 1.71 for Kingsport.

So my take, even without including international players (and the rare standout undrafted player like T J Rivera) in the analysis, is that the Mets have a lot of talent in the minors still.
Even after promotions and trades. A whole lot.


Anonymous said...

Wuilmer Becerra, Jhoan Urena? did they fall off the table?

Thomas Brennan said...

Becerra and Urena are both non-draft internationals. So they were outside scope of this discussion, which focused on the drafts. Thank you for asking.

eraff said...

My Favorite "unknown" is Kurtis Horne, LHP. He's had 2 "seasons" at GCL..... turned 19 on August 5th.

This is a Bullpen from his August 2011---15 yuears old>

Here's the same kid at 17

Based on that...I like him

Bob Sugar said...

Outstanding look here for us Tom. Nice work.
I'm very interested in how the SS position shakes out for us. Not counting Reynolds there are four talented guys in the minors making a push

Thomas Brennan said...

@ Bob Sugar: thanks, and that many shortstops is a nice problem indeed. I wonder if ultimately Rosario has the edge as he will develop perhaps more power than the others, although Gavin stepped it up this year in that dept. Nice to have SS who can field and be a threat with the bat. And Carpio (not a draftee) could make it a 5th guy with major league starting SS potential "down under"

@ Eraff: I will give Horne a look on those links when I can. Being a lefty myself (I have been clocked at 9.9 MPH with a breeze at my back) it is always exciting to have lefties with promise moving up the ladder. He'll Be 19 almost all of next year, too. Hopefully he is Brooklyn-bound.

Mack's Mets © 2012