6/4/17

Mack’s Picks For The Draft

3 comments

Good morning.

The first day of the draft is next week.

These are some of the players that I would target in the first three rounds. By my research, all should be around in the round I target them for (two in the 1st round, three in the 2nd, two in the 3rd), so I would have to make a last minute decision on all of them.

I have no first basemen, shortstops, or corner outfielders here. I would abandon the ‘best player available’ plan that most teams follow and not target any players that play those positions in the first three rounds.

Lastly, all the players I list are college juniors. I want to replenish the upper levels of my pipeline asap and all of these guy could easily start next season in Port St. Lucie.

They are -

RHSP – Drew Rasmussen, Oregon State – 3rd round -   I love this guy, even through high school, though he spent much of his college career on the DL. He returned this April after having TJS (complete tear of the ulnar ligament) in March of 2016. Rasmussen was going to be the next great college righty (threw a no-hitter in 2015) when he went down with this major injury. A sure fire first rounder that will most probably still be around when the Mets pick in the 3rd round. If they could pick a similar injury guy last year in the 2nd round (Connecticut, Anthony Kay), take the chance here in the third round. Trust me, he will be a major league mound star.Also, a potential under slot target.  Stats this year:  5-G, 3-starts, 3-0, 0.51, 17.2-IP, 1-ER, 17-K


LHSP – Brendon Little, State College of Florida 1st round – Okay, you know that ex-Houston Seth Romero is my favorite here, but I have to look past him since I agree with most of you out there that the Mets will ignore a 3-time suspended college pitcher. Little has bounced around as a late first round pick to as low as the top of the third. Has a 97-mph projected higher fastball that blew away the last Cape Cod League. His problems were the year before when he couldn’t find the plate for North Carolina. He chose not to return there and the only question mark would seem to be the lack of quality competition he threw against below the D1 level. Still, I like him and I believe the Mets could get him to agree to below slot money here. 2017: 15-starts, 5-3, 2.53, 85.1-IP, 133-K. 3-HR


RP – Colton Hock, Stanford – 2nd round – This will most probably be the first reliever chosen in this year’s draft. Killer stat line: 26-appearances, 6-1, 1.94, 46.1-IP, 10-ER, 35-K, 16-Saves. Hock’s stuff isn’t overpowering, but effective. He’s a 6-5, 200 pound pitcher with a low mileage arm that was supposed to begin a conversion to a starter, but it just didn’t happen to the benefit of the team. Yes, that number I wrote above is correct… 26 games… 16 saves. The Mets have to decide if they want a guy like this. Sits in the low-90s but has hit 97 and is still projected for a successful conversion to a rotation starter.


2B – Ernie Clement, Virginia - 3rd round – As we’ve learned over the years, there are no great college second basemen. I think of Daniel Murphy when I read the scouting reports on Clement. He started out an outfielder and is still learning how to play second (see errors in stat line). Solid, flexible player who is a team player and makes great contact. He would be my second choice with my third pick behind Rasmussen. 244-AB, .320/.345/.373, 2-HR, 32-RBI, 15(!)-E


3B – Jake Burger, Missouri State - 1st round – You aren’t going to find a better college third base bat than Burger, put that’s what we said about David Thompson in 2015 when we drafted him out of the University of Miami. Burger’s stat line this year is ++: 223-AB, .341/.459/.691, 22-HR, 63-RBI,10-E. His best too is his power. His arm is strong and he projects to remain on third. His biggest limitation is his running ability on the bases. Given the choice if Little and Burger are still around at ‘20’, I would take Little, but Burger would be no loss if I was ‘stuck’ with him.

CF – Stuart Fairchild, Wake Forest – 2nd round – There aren’t that many quality center fielders in this draft. The ++ ones will be gone before the Mets pick with the 20th pick overall, and Fairchild should be still around by their pick in the second round. He’s a + all-around player… good power, excellent speed, and premier defense. He’s had only three erros in his college career. This year’s stat line at Wake is: .350/.430/.602 with 13 homers, 16 steals, 26 walks, 46 strikeouts in 226 at-bats. Scouts say he projects out as a CFer.


C – Connor Wong, Houston – 2nd round -  – we talked about Romero throwing the ball for Houston, what about the guy that catches it? Wong has put up respectable numbers this year for UH: 249-AB, .297/.388/.502, 6-E, .987-fld%. Wong was the best catcher in last year’s Cape Cod League, started out as a shortstop, and is known as a defensive catcher first. I expect him to still be on the second round board, possibly even the third.

3 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

It is hard to really know what the Mets think of current minor leaguers like Thompson and Urena as future 3Bs.

But I like Burger, Fairchild and Rasmussen, based on how you describe them, for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds.

That said, the way the Mets' pitching has underwhelmed this year, maybe a pitcher again in Round 1 would be more sensible.

This year's consensus #1 pick in all the draft out of high school (name eludes me) really sounds like the next Gooden.

Mack Ade said...

I think you are talking about Hunter Greene out of Notre Dame HS (CA)

Tom, I never come closeto predicting the Mets draft.

They always come up with someone like Brandon Nimmo or Desmond Lindsay that no other team would have ever drafted in the first round.

Nimmo maybe a Supp 1 one pick, but nothing higher than that.

Thomas Brennan said...

True about Nimmo - you should see how your picks over the past 10 years have panned out vs. Mets picks in first 3 rounds.

At least Nimmo is starting to show real signs of life - in last 13 games, 18 hits, 8 walks, 6 doubles, 2 HR...if this team falls apart in the Wild Card Race, they should quickly move Bruce and Grandy and call up Nimmo. He will get on base and maybe still blossom into a solid starting major league OF.

OF could be Cespedes, Conforto, Nimmo, Lagares, and TJ Rivera. I'd like to say Lagares is part of the answer, but who knows - he is having some miserable season: 2 RBI in 64 at bats. TWO RBIs a 3rd of the way thru the season. For Pete's sake, Adam Wainwright has 7 RBI in 22 at bats.

Mack's Mets © 2012