Mike Freire - Can They Close The Deal?

Good Morning, Mets' fans!

As weird as this topic would have been roughly six weeks ago, the Mets' recent hot streak has vaulted them into "legitimate playoff contender" status. As of this morning (08-09-19), there are a total of seven teams within five games of each other for the two Wild Card playoff positions that are available in the National League.  This does not include the Braves and the Cubs who are leading their respective divisions.  If either of them falter down the stretch, they would be replaced by one of the aforementioned Wild Card hopefuls, so it is largely a moot point.

Seriously, read that last paragraph again! Our favorite team was left for dead just a few weeks ago and now they are right in the thick of things with only 47 games left to play.

Take a look at the statistics below;

1.  Washington (48)  61-53    --
2.  Milwaukee (46)   60-56    --

3.  St Louis (49)      58-55   0.5
4.  NYM (47)          59-56   0.5
5.  Philly (47)         59-56    0.5
6.  Arizona (47)      58-57   1.5
7.  SFG  (46)           57-59   3.0

***The number in parenthesis are the remaining games left to be played by each team and the "games behind" figure is calculated off the record of the SECOND Wild Card team, or the minimum needed to sneak into the playoffs, if you will.

Looking at just the wins and losses can be slightly misleading, since it doesn't reflect who is hot (Mets) or who is not (Cardinals) at any particular moment.  So, consider the next set of statistics for some additional insight;

1.  Washington (48)  61-53    --    +46 (-1)
2.  Milwaukee (46)   60-56    --     -21 (+4)

3.  St Louis (49)      58-55   0.5     +8  (+1)
4.  NYM (47)          59-56   0.5     +13 (E)
5.  Philly (47)         59-56    0.5     -31 (+5)
6.  Arizona (47)      58-57   1.5     +76 (-7)
7.  SFG  (46)           57-59   3.0     -59 (+6)

***The two new columns to the right are each teams season long run differential (more accurate predictor as the season progresses) and the number of wins above or below what SHOULD have happened based on the differential.

This sort of analysis CAN give you a glimpse into which teams are significantly overachieving (Brewers, Phillies and Giants) and which teams are really underachieving (Diamondbacks and Nationals).  Since luck is a fickle beast, you COULD expect the teams with a negative number to play better the rest of the way, while the teams with a positive number might start to fade away as September gets here.

The top team in the Wild Card standings (Nationals) is on pace to win 86 games, so it is safe to say that no one is running away with things at this point.  Heck, the Nationals season is pretty similar to ours in that they got off to a horrible start, got hot for a while and then settled into their current situation (the Mets' effort is a bit out of order, but has similar parts). With that said, I think a target of 87 wins would be logical for the Mets to shoot for and it would likely get them into one of the two coveted positions.

So, how do we get there?

IF the Mets want to get to a record of 87-75, they need to win 28 more games (duh).  With only 47 games left to play, that would equal a closing record of 28-19, or a winning percentage near 60%.  Despite the recent hot streak, that would be a fairly hefty winning percentage across a large number of games (over a full season, it would generate a record of 97-65, for example).  Plus, as stated earlier, you have seven different teams with similar aspirations and they will likely take turns beating each other down the stretch (making wins harder to come by).

In closing, winning six games out of ten the rest of they will be challenging, to say the least.   BUT, consider the current state of the Mets' starting rotation (the best of the teams listed above and it further highlights how savvy BVW's recent trade is turning out to be).  Is it that outlandish to expect Jake, Noah, Marcus, Zack and Steven to win 60% of the time between now and the end of the regular season?

I think it is possible, so long as the bullpen cooperates and the three game set at home against the Nationals this weekend will either be a springboard or a trap door.