Mike Friere - New York Mets Positional Analysis 2012 and Beyond - Part Three

This series of articles will analyze a different position on the Mets’
team each week, with the intent to look at where we are now (2012) and
where we are headed in the future (think 2014 and beyond, otherwise
known as "Sandy’s timetable").

This type of analysis can be helpful, in that it sheds light on specific
roster moves, or a lack thereof, as we progress towards 2014.   A single
move may not make much sense at first, but if you take a step back and
look at the time line as a whole, it becomes much easier to figure out
what Sandy’s true plan is.

At times, I may also using some basic statistics to make a point, but I
will try to keep it light since that is not everyone’s “thing” so to
speak.   Basically, I am going to look at the top ten players at the
specific position, try to generate an average for the list and compare
it to where we are and where we want to be.   After all, imagine if we
had top ten talent at every position on the field!   I would take that
in a heartbeat, and so should you.

Last week, I took a look at first base and I came to the conclusion that Ike Davis
(if he can return to his 2011 form.....the good player form, not the one where he
was laid up for months) is our best bet for current and future success.  He is an
above average defender and he can be relied upon in one of the power spots in the lineup.

Outside of Ike, there isn’t much on the horizon between now and 2014.
For this week’s installment, I will continue to move around the infield and stop at second base, to see how things are progressing.

What do you want in a second baseman?   Traditionally, you wanted an athletic defender who has good range, can adeptly turn the double play and has some speed, which translates into a spot at the top of your batting order (first or second position).   If they also have some power, that is a nice bonus, but it is not normally viewed as a “power position”, like the corner infield and outfield positions.

The Mets have had a few decent second baseman over the years, to include Edgardo Alfonso and Wally Backman, who both fit the mold listed above.    However, they both played a while ago, so what about today?

Looking around MLB in 2011, if you rank the various second baseman by OPS, your list would look something like this; Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, Weeks, Phillips, Kendrick, Uggla, Walker, Espinosa and K Johnson.

Collectively, they averaged a statistical line of 23 HR/77 RBI/14 SB and an OPS of 0.797, which was surprising.   It would appear that the “traditional” model of a second baseman is a bit dated, perhaps?   Maybe we should expect more offense out of our “model” second baseman going forward.

Furthermore, of the ten listed players, which of them would you really consider to be above average with the glove?   Pedroia, Weeks, Phillips, Walker and Espinosa? You also have a couple of names that play defense as an afterthought, like Cano, and especially Uggla.    While defense may not be as  important among the top second baseman, I think it needs to remain a priority for the Mets (since run prevention will be rewarded in Citi Field).

OK, so where are the Mets in 2012 and beyond, at second base?   Currently, Daniel Murphy has played the most games at second base, with 384 plate appearances (which translates to just over one half of an average year of 600 plate appearances).
Using his current statistical line and projecting it out to a “full year”, he would produce 5 HR/75 RBI/11 SB and an OPS of 0.764, which isn’t too far off from our “model”, if you ignore the lack of home runs.

Cool!  So we are set at second base, right?   Using my Lee Corso voice, “not so fast, my friends”!    As much as I admire Murphy, he is abysmal with the glove and his overall range is subpar.    I think he is a nice bench/utility type player, or perhaps a DH in the American League.  I do  NOT think the Mets can be contenders with him as the regular second baseman, which is harsh, but it is the truth.

The other two players that have logged time at second base this year are Justin Turner (115 plate appearances, nothing remarkable statistically) and Jordany Valdespin (118 plate appearances, but they have been all over the place).  Turner is nothing more then a solid bench player and decent pinch hitter.   Valdespin has potential, but is it at second base or somewhere else on the field, like the outfield.

Before we move on, let’s look at Valdespin’s stats for a moment.    In 118 plate appearances, which is approximately one quarter of a full season, Jordany
has produced 7 HR/23 RBI/5 SB and an OPS of 0.793, which is pretty impressive (not to mention his flair for the dramatic).    If he could play a passable second
base defensively, you would have an intriguing prospect.   It seems that he struggles defensively (at both second base and short stop), but may stick in the outfield.
Who knows, maybe Jordany can follow in BJ Upton’s shoes?    Upton was a second baseman before he was moved to CF.   I will get into Jordany’s future when we look closer at the outfield.

So, it would seem that the future of the Mets at second base is not on the current roster.
What about in the minor leagues?   Again, I am going to take a brief look at AA and AAA, since the lower levels are too far away to contribute in 2014 (realistically), although Mack can provide a better assessment of what may be lurking down there.
Between Buffalo and Binghamton, the Mets have primarily used the following players at second base;  Josh Rodriguez (355 AB), Rylan Sandoval (73 AB), Reese Havens (269 AB) and Brad Emaus (216 AB).   There are other players who have some time at second base, but the aforementioned list is the bulk of what is available.

So, it would be safe to say that the list isn’t too impressive.   Josh Rodriguez is an intriguing name, complete with a combined OPS (between AA and AAA) of over 0.800, but he is also 28 years old.   Is he a prospect anymore? Emaus and Sandoval don’t look like more then minor league fodder, plus both of them are “old” for prospect status.  Reese Havens was supposed to be the future, but he has had issues staying healthy in the past.   While he has stayed pretty healthy this year, he is sporting an OPS of 0.711, which does
 not inspire any sort of confidence.  Hell, that is below average for minor league baseball, never mind in MLB.

One other wild card would be Josh Satin, who has recently gotten some time at second base in Buffalo.  Old for prospect status and almost out of our system, he is raking in 2012, so far.   If it were up to me, why not give him a shot at second base for the rest of the year?   He can’t be any worse  then Murphy defensively and he has a lot more pop in his bat.

So, short of the lower levels, it would seem that the future second baseman is not currently a Met.

That leaves two choices, in my estimation.  One would be to go outside and find a young, established player (like 26 year old Neil Walker from the  Pirates, for example), the other would be to use a series of stop gaps until a young player emerges from the lower levels or we draft a nearly ready second baseman in the next draft.