So, wasn’t ‘Trade Deadline Day’ fun? Did you notice the title included the word ‘dead’?
I want to reiterate something I have brought up a number of times over the past couple of years.
I had the pleasure of working as a local sports reporter here in South Carolina and covered the high schools in both Beaufort and Jasper County. In addition, as most of you know, I have written about potential high school seniors and college juniors eligible each year for the baseball draft.
I’ve watched this game change over the past ten years in so many ways, but, there are two areas that stand out as major changes in a sport that basically went down the same path for decades.
First, the African-American athletes have begun to return to a sport that they seemed to have abandoned after the 1960s. I first saw it here in rural high schools that, ten years ago, had a hard time finding nine players to even show up for tryouts. The dreams of stardom and big money were always through either basketball or football and the limited coaching staffs that doubled and tripled up coaching different sports at these schools, pointed their best athletes in the direction of the sports that were more attractive to the administration, the family of the players, and the community in general.
Remember… I live in the south. This is ‘Friday Night Lights’ territory.
Baseball has made a comeback for a number of reasons. One, is the potential of bigger money than either football or basketball. Another is, two baseball players never run into each other on purpose, and smash each other head to head.
The injuries for high school football alone have changed the direction of how families plan their more talented son’s extra-curricular activities will be and the winner of this new direction is now sports like soccer, track and field, and baseball.
I’ve also watched baseball itself change regardless of race. Coaches are defining talent as early as grade school on teams usually coached by one of the fathers of the more gifted players. The one constant you see is the most talented (and tallest) of these ballplayers are sent to the pitcher’s mound rather than become positional players.
How does this translate into what happened… or in the case of yesterday, what didn’t happen, on Draft Day?
Well, the talent base for this sport has simply become more as a pitcher. The 40-home run, 120-RBI stud has frankly always been the exception rather than the norm, but he’s now almost an endangered species.
Ballplayers aren’t coming out of high school as talents pitchers… they’re going into their schools already with trophies on their bedroom dressers. Every neighborhood team only has so many great athletes and, if coaches direct that talent in the direction of pitching, that’s where the team’s talent will lie.
The domino effect is better pitching, less hitting in, first, high school, and then, college and now it seems that everybody over the height of 6-2 is a pitcher (actually, at last count, there were only three right-handed starters in baseball under 6-1).
Every professional baseball team is now building their future around, first, young pitching, and secondly, draft picks and international free agents that they have financial control of for a number of years. Teams simply are not giving up their young prospects as easily as they have in the past and the result is less deals on days like yesterday.
There always will be trades and there will always be an off-season you can sign a free agent, but the success of your team will primarily be based on how well you stock your team in the beginning, rather than on days like yesterday.
From Andy Martino –
“When I came here in September last year, Dan Warthen showed me how to throw a slider,” said a beaming Jenrry Mejia, back in a major league clubhouse. “Then I threw it in winter ball. And now I throw it perfect.” That might read like a boast, but he said it with glee, not swagger. After posting a 5.62 ERA last September, then missing most of the first half this year with discomfort in his forearm and elbow (he needs offseason surgery, but does not consider it major), Mejia seemed cooked for good. And, according to organizational sources, he had Frank Francisco advising him to stay in Port St. Lucie and collect his big league D.L. money, rather than work to return and be optioned to the minors. It impressed the Mets when Mejia opted to tune out Francisco. At one point, staff down in Port St. Lucie began mentioning Wheeler and Harvey as motivation; “three years ago, you were the guy, not Harvey and Wheeler” coaches told him. “Show us you’re still in that league.”
Is this true? Can someone check this out and get another source on Francisco? I know I have been told that he just dogged it through the extended camp all season, plus another ‘source’ told me he has been a very bad influence on prospect pitcher Hansel Robles. Why do you release a team player like Shaun Marcum and keep this piece of roak kill in your camp? Just write him a check and take him out to I95 and send him on his way.
One more thing about Mejia, especially if you are unhappy with the results of the MLB trading deadline day. The addition of Jenrry Mejia on the 25-man has come out of nowhere and, frankly, it would have cost this team at least one quality player to get someone with this kind of talent. Everything gets easier once this rotation is completed. Mejia would be the 3rd starter that sits 95+ (Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler) and would leave only two slot left for the (Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jeremy Hefney, Carlos Torres, Jake deGrom) five guys that will come to camp next April. Then, around July, both Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard could be ready and able. It seems to me that Niese and Syndergaard are the favorites to finish out the ‘dream rotation’ (can you find a better SP5 in the league than Niese?) we have all dream about. Yes, there is still plenty of work to do regarding the other 20 players, but seven of them will be relieve pitchers that will also be dominated from this talent pool. Now, all you have to do is start spending some of that $40-50mil you’ll have laying around in the off season on every day players.
12 comments:
Hi Mack,
your dream rotation lines up well with my own. I think we start the year as Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Mejia. Gee with Hefner and Torres in the pen as long men and rotation insurance. Thor comes up mid season and slots into Gee's spot who we can then trade at or near the deadline for another need. I can't believe how close we are to archiving this rotation. I'm praying that there are no injuries that slow this down.
Also I'd love to see Matz make a case to snipe Niese's spot in a few years. Keep the rotation young and you can trade the back end I Niese's contract around 2016.
Signs Ellsbury and Beltran for 5 and 2 years respectively and trade for decent short stop and we're good to go.
We also need to say a few nice things about the bullpen and how that I shaping up long term.
The addition of David Aardsma, the resurgence of Josh Edgin, and the (frankly) pleasant surprise of Gonzalez Germen will make things a lot easier next spring when it's time to determine the 5-6 guys that go the pen with Bobby Parnell
My guess is one of them out of the box will be Jeurys Familia, with Jack Leathersich and Rafael Montero in the wings.
Also, you might see Jacob deGrom in this role.
I don't worry about the Mets pitching.
Mejia is a great story, and without knowing him personally, he has always been an easy kid to root for. Hearing that he ignored advice from the great sage FF just adds to his positive image. Hopefully his elbow issues are not a big deal, but there is definitely a place for him on the staff. The top notch teams have 12 above average pitchers...no weak links...and several dominant. The Mets still have a ways to go here, as they continue to be near the bottom of the NL in runs against. The hitting woes get all the focus, but they still need to build that staff, and have deepen the pool in AAA in case of injury or bad performance. The Braves lost their 7th and 8th inning guys to TJ, two guys that dominated, and they slotted in two no names pitching to very low ERAs. That is what keeps a team near the top, and Mejia looks like one-twelfth of that solution, whether it is the pen or rotation.
I believe you are correct. He is definitely one of the 12 and comes back from being totally forgotton.
Who knows... there's hope for Jeurys Familia.
Starting pithing before August 30th is pretty simple to define... if you can find 5 guys to average 7.0-IP and give up 3 or less runs over those 7 innings each time they pitch... you wlll win 90+ games in the season.
Your 8th and 9th inning will stay fresh with rested arms...
I think the Mets are 'three pitchers there' (Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia) right now... if I'm right, look for a higher percentage of wins between now and August 30th.
I'd be happy with winning months the rest of the year, even If it's only be a a by a few wins.
I'm not upset by the trade deadline lack of trades. I figured we'd never get more then a B prospect for Byrd. I was hoping we could package him with some other parts to get an impact prospect or MLB talent but baring that I agree with Sandy that it's important not to punt the second half just for a b prospect or 2.
It's time to play hard like we're in a playoff race even if we come up short. The kids are all coming up and getting their feet wet, It's time for them to learn to win together.
Also it would be a big moral victor if we could take 3rd or even 2nd this year. I'm definitely not afraid of Philly and the Nats aren't quite as good as we were led to believe either. Even a 2nd place finish that doesn't end up getting is to the playoffs will help give this team some swagger and get the ready to seriously contend for years to come.
Since the mets did nothing at trade deadline, they need to also do nothing this off-season as far as not trading ANY of their young pitching prospects. If they can't sign a high end OF or SS free agent, so be it.
P.S. enjoy ur upcoming 'vacation' Puello. See ya next year.
P.P.S. Happy Harvey Day ! If anyone needs me, I'll be at Marlins Park watching our ace take of business.
and...
if the Mets finish second in their own division and only a couple of games out of the wild card race...
free agents and their agents will be much more interesting to join this team next year...
The clubhouse, minus Valdespin, is a very nice place to be right now.
Most of the losses have been competitive and the players know they are making progress.
In order to get the bats we need its possible some the these names will get moved in the off season. Mack you said it- Pitching (starting Pitching) is not a concern. Need some consistent bats.
T. Collins has impressed me. They play hard for him and he does get the most out of each player. No idea if he'll be back though. Lagares has a chance to stick as the number 1 CH for the future.
In order to get the bats we need its possible some the these names you mention above will get moved in the off season. Mack you said it- Pitching (starting Pitching) is not a concern. Need some consistent bats.
T. Collins has impressed me. They play hard for him and he does get the most out of each player. No idea if he'll be back though. Lagares has a chance to stick as the number 1 CH for the future.
We all seem to agree that pitching is the least of our problems. If Mejia continues to impress over the last 2 months, he inserts himself right into the middle of things. It looks like the opening day rotation would be Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia, Niese and Gee, although Torres could push his way in with a strong finish this season.
The way the bull pen has shaped up is encouraging. I too am very surprised at how Germen has looked so far. I saw him close up several times this spring in St Lucie, and he didn't look that good to me. Aardsma has been great and I wonder if he will be back next year. I am guessing yes. I think Rice is a lock for next year, since he is not even arb eligible until 2016. So, IMO, the early line on next years opening day pen is Parnell, Edgin, Aardsma, Rice, Hefner, Torres, and one opening. In addition to Aardsma, it is likely that Alderson will want to sign a veteran RP in the off season, but we have so much talent available to fill that slot that he could opt not to go after a FA. I think Montero is trade bait, and Hefner could go in a trade too. But think about Germen, Familia, Leathersich, Verrett, deGrom, Gorski, Cohoon, Kolarek, Hutchingson, Walters, Church, and even a 36 year old Giancarlo Alvarado as contenders for a BP spot. What an embarrassment of riches.
The emergence of Lagares further complicates our outfield situation. He can make or break his case for a spot in next year's outfield over the next 2 months. He is a Gold Glove caliber fielder and if he continues to hit, he's in.
Some people here are talking about Beltran on a 2 year deal. I don't think Alderson will bring Carlos back. But am I in a complete minority of one thinking that Marlon Byrd deserves to be brought back? I would love to see next years outfield consist of Byrd-Lagares-Ellsbury/Choo. I'd move EYJ to second base, since he is not that great a fielder in the OF and he has much better range than Murphy at second. And if Davis can return to form, and Tejada comes back as a .280 hitter, it gives us a fantastic lineup.
The next 2 months are extremely important. If we continue to play in August and September (we sure are due for a good second half, aren't wee?) the way we played in July, there is no reason we can't overtake the Phils and Nats for second place. But far more importantly, it is a proving ground for the likes of Byrd, Young, Lagares, Davis, Tejada, Mejia, Torres, and the host of minor league talent waiting in the wings for a September call up.
The Mets have plenty of starters and relievers to make trades happen; however, they need to take of the table certain pitchers that are vital to the future.
Starter wise, mine would be Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard.
Relievers, I have none.
Come offer me something for what I have.
Mack,
Yes, good to mention Familia as well. While this season is a lost year for him injury-wise, he is still really young and has plenty of time to harness command. He is also clearly one of the potential 12, in the pen, and is controllable with options, which makes him very valuable.
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