Michael Scannell - It's Never Too Early to Think About 2014

 

So, the trade deadline has come and gone with no movement for the Mets.  Although the possibility exists that the team might pull off a waiver deadline trade, I’m not getting my hopes up.  The team will enter the offseason looking almost exactly as it does right now.  That means we can take a closer look at the potential acquisitions the team can make.

 

Instead of laying out an entire offseason plan, for now I’m going to focus on the free agent acquisitions I want to see the team make as well as one minor trade acquisition.  I’m staying away from the bigger targets (and that one middle of the order bat) that we’d like to see because the hot stove has yet to really heat up and there’s no telling who might be available.  As the next few weeks and months go by, I’ll update my ideas more, but for now I’ll stick to targets that are (or at least should be) easier to predict.

 

 

1)   Sign CF Jacoby Ellsbury for 5 years and $80M.



Ellsbury solves an immediate need for the Mets.  The FO’s pursuit of Michael Bourn last year shows Alderson’s recognition of the need for a top-flight leadoff hitter and CF.  While EYJ and Lagares have been interesting as of late I don’t think either has the chops to be a long-term starter in the bigs.  Lagares might have more of a shot than Young, but this is one position I think the team needs a proven MLB player with a solid track record.  Ellsbury brings very good defense in CF, gets on base, and knows how to steal bases.  He’ll bring talent to the top of the lineup that the Mets have been missing since Reyes left.  I think his skill set would translate well to Citifield and he would be a core piece for the Next Mets.  Of course, the Red Sox could re-sign him, although with JBJ coming up, I think they’ll look to reallocate his dollars to other areas that they need to improve.  The Mets could also be outbid, but $16M per year should be sufficient for him, given what Bourn got last year and Ellsbury’s injury history.

 

2)  Sign OF Carlos Beltran for 2 years and $20M with an option for a 3^rd year.



Bringing Carlos back would be a great move at this point.  He’s still producing at a high level and will likely not command an exorbitant salary given his age.  I would pencil him into a corner OF position for now, waiting to see what other acquisitions might be made before locking him into RF.  How sweet would it be for Mets fans to watch a winning team that includes Beltran and Wheeler, bringing that deal full circle.  Instead of being THE guy this time around, he’d be a veteran hitter who is still integral to the team’s success but would have other hitters to help with the burden

 

3)  Trade for 1B/OF Andrew Lambo of Pittsburgh.

 



 

Lambo is currently in AAA in the Pirates’ organization.  He’s 24 years old (not young but not too old for his level) and has shown tremendous power this year.  Projected over 600 AB’s, he’s on pace for 44HR overall btw AA and AAA and in AAA alone he projects to 51.  He’s a former top-50 Baseball America prospect who has overcome suspension and injuries to finally break out and realize his potential.  While he can play 1B, he has spent most of his professional career playing the OF.  The Pirates’ OF picture appears set with Marte, McCutcheon, and Polanco.  They also have Josh Bell and Austin Meadows in the system, seemingly squeezing Lambo out.  The Pirates do have a need at 1B but it doesn’t appear that Lambo is being considered for that slot.  Even with his breakout year, he didn’t crack the Pirates’ BA Top 10 prospects.  Given all of that, he seems to be a prime candidate for the Pirates to cash in on and someone the Mets should consider picking up before he makes it big with another team.

 

Considering the questions that may surround him, I’m not suggesting the Mets pay top dollar to acquire him, nor should they just hand 1B over to him.  However, the team needs to turn the page on Ike Davis and I don’t think Lucas Duda is the answer.  I could see the Mets dealing an arm for him and giving him a chance to win the 1B job in spring training.  It could be a chance for the Mets to address and area of need on the cheap, get great production, and still be able to fill the other holes in the lineup.  For a more detailed scouting writeup on Lambo, check out –

http://alturl.com/968eb.

 

After these 3 moves, the core 13 (and salaries) of the Next Mets would look like this:

 

 

1. CF Ellsbury (16)


2. ---


3. 3B Wright (20)


4. ---


5. OF Beltran (10)


6. ---


7. 1B Lambo (0.5)


8. Ca d’Arnaud (0.5)

 

SP1 Harvey (0.5)

SP2 Niese (5)

SP3 Wheeler (0.5)

SP4 ---

SP5 ---

 

This team could be well-positioned for the next 5 or so seasons.  Ellsbury would be signed for that long and should not see much drop-off in production as he is in his prime years.  Wright is signed through 2020 and Jon Niese through 2018.  We know that Lambo, d’Arnaud, Harvey, and Wheeler are at the beginning of their careers and should be here for a long time assuming they produce.  While Beltran would only be here for 2-3 years he’d be a great placeholder and a temporary solution for the middle of the lineup.  He could also act as a mentor and leader for the younger players.  If Lambo realizes his power potential at the MLB level, he can rotate up to the #5 spot in the lineup when Beltran rides off into the sunset.  Brandon Nimmo should be ready by then and could slide into RF and take the #7 spot in the lineup.  If these two young players don’t pan out, the Mets would have 2-3 years to find other solutions.

 

As it stands, the Core 13 would have 8 slots filled to the tune of $52M.  If we’re assuming a payroll of $100M for the year, that leaves $48M for 3 field positions and 2 starting pitchers, excluding bench and bullpen.  The remaining 2 SP’s will likely be making the minimum or close to it.



 

I’m assuming Syndergaard will be up at some point next year and take one of the spots.  He was just named the top pitching prospect in TWO leagues for this year and appears to be getting better.  At this point, he has to be the clear #1 pitching prospect and likely #1 overall in the organization.  I wouldn’t trade him for almost anyone right now.  I would give him a chance to make the rotation out of spring training and spare him having to pitch in Vegas, but I think the org. will hold off until Super2 is passed.  Not only is it a financial decision, but it’s also strategic in that Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard will become FA in successive years and none would hit free agency at the same time.  We can’t be sure right now who will fill the other slot or who will hold Thor’s place until he arrives.  However, with Gee, Hefner, Mejia, DeGrom, and Montero in the organization, I don’t see Sandy going outside to fill a slot unless he has to trade them all away (not likely) or decides he wants another LHP (doubtful).  I’m leaving the spots open for now until the trade market comes into focus a bit better.

 

I could put together a lineup that includes other pieces, but players are likely going to be dealt this winter.  I could see Flores lined up at 2B or he could just as easily be playing for another team next year.  I think part of the reason the Mets kept him in the minors for so long was to protect his trade value.  I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Mejia dealt.  A month ago the Mets would have been facing a difficult decision on trading Syndergaard or Montero for a hitter.  Now, they have ‘found money’ in Mejia.  He has Syndergaard’s upside but can also be considered expendable like Montero.  Putting together Flores, Gee, and Mejia would be a solid foundation for a trade package, especially to a team with pitching needs and a corner IF need (maybe even 2B).

 

Given that almost all of the team’s trade pieces will likely still be in the organization (I don’t see Lambo costing a top prospect) and that at least the other 2 SP’s will likely be making the minimum, the FO can make these moves listed to add to the foundation and still have plenty of resources available to complete the roster and put a real contender on the field.