2/25/13

Mack Ade - SPs - What’s The Best Case Scenario?




The system has a bunch of great choices, but what does the future look like if everything goes as planned?

This is how close we are to complete pitching dominance in this sport.

Jon Niese is signed.

Matt Harvey is there.

Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard are one of the top 50 prospects.

And Rafael Montero looks like the next star.

So, if we just project them (through the length of Niese’s contract), it comes out like this:

                2013:  Harevy, Niese, Santana, Marcum, Gee
                2014:  Harvey, Wheeler,Niese, Gee, open
     2015:  Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Montero, Syndergarrd
                2016:  Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Montero, Syndergaard
                2017:  Harvey, Wheeler, Montero, Syndergaard, open

And I’m being conservative here. Montero has a chance of pitching both AA and AAA this year and could be ready by opening day 2014. And Syndergaard could complete St’ Lucie, Binghamton, and Las Vegas within a two year period and also be ready by April 2014. All it take is one and there isn’t an opening within this rotation until 2017.

Based on this, guys like Cory Mazzoni, Darin Gorski, Gonzalez Germen, Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Famila, Greg Peavey, Erik Goeddel, and Tyler Pill will come of age before there’s an opening (in 2017).  This is your initial list of trade bait for a future outfielder.

Which then means all you have to do is develop ONE pitcher from the list of Domingo Tapia, Luis Tapia, Steven Matz, Jake deGrom, Logan Verrett, Hansel Robles, Michael Fulmer, Gabriel Ynoa, Rainey Lara, Luis Cessa, Alex Panteliodes, and Julian Hilario for that SP5 that’s available in 2017.

It’s amazing the depth of pitching talent here. Sandy Alderson will easily allow other teams to “take advantage” of him and demand a trade of 2-3 pitchers for one top outfield prospect. You can do this twice and not even put a dent in the Mets system. And, we’re not even taking into consideration who else the Mets will sign between now and the 2014 draft/free agent/UDFA season.

Unbelievable.

13 comments:

Unknown said...

How many of them are "Omar's guys?". While Omar gets the blame for his free agency misgivings, one has to realize that the seeds from the Omar administration is finally starting to blossom.

I would be surprised to see Niese traded in the next 2 years for a quality outfielder.
2015: Harvey, Wheeler, Montero, Syndergaard, open

My money is on either a FA veteran or Robles. My $$$ is on Robles.

Mack Ade said...

Syndergaard (trade), Wheeler (trade), Mazzoni, Pill, Fulmer, Pants are Alderson's

Michael S. said...

Niese is the only LH from this group. He is going no where unless there is another LH coming back. Going forward your rotation will likely be:

SP1 Harvey
SP2 Wheeler
SP3 Niese
SP4 Syndergaard
SP5 OPEN

My money says that that spot is filled by another LH and from outside the organization. Wanna dream big? Slot David Price in at SP1 and slide everyone down one spot. With the organization paying their own guys next to nothing for a few years, it would make sense to spend some of the financial savings on the open market.

I wouldn't get too attached to Montero either. Right now the future core of the Mets rotation is a Big 3 of Harvey,Niese,and Wheeler. Every other RH is auditioning for that #4 spot and I'm betting it goes to Roy. Halladay's twin brother. Everyone else is either bullpen fodder or trade bait. In just a few months, Sandy will be able to package Dillon Gee, Wilmer Flores, and Rafael Montero to bring in a big time hitter.

Michi L. said...

extremly exciting!!

I´m really wonder what happens with Michael Fulmer. I think he is a verry verry interesting prospect but even for him there isn´t a safe place in the 2015/2016 rotation!!
I think he could become a huuuge trade bait with plenty of value

Mack Ade said...

this is very close to being fun

Charles said...

A lot of fans are quick to say that it's too early to predict a dominant team in two years based on these players. Generation K is still in the back of their minds. However, the Mets have generation K times 5 at this point with all of these guys. It's not just 3!!! It's like 10-12!!! They all don't need to flourish, just a couple in order to make a great rotation.

If some if the others become Jason Isringhousens, damn, that's fine by me.

Willis said...

Shouldn't you guys be working on the minor league rotation thread 😃?

Charles said...

Montero and Mateo are Sandy's too, I think...

Actually, at this point, they're all his. He's been here over two years. He could have traded them all to make the team better much quicker, but held on to them all. Omar, most likely would've traded the farm to get more wins. That's not a knock on him. They were brought in for different reasons.

Michael S. said...

I agree Charles, at this point I even consider Matt Harvey Sandy's because he didn't trade him away in an ill-fated quick fix move.

Mack Ade said...

Yeah Charles, one of the things I want to keep stressing here this year is how close this team is...

guys like you know this, but the average Mets fan don't and we get some of them here too...

I believe 2013 will be a tough year to follow (wait until you see my predictions when ST ends) and we need as much good as we canget (and be told) this year...

Mack Ade said...

Will:

And your point is?

Willis said...

It was a joke. The smily didn't resolve.

Charles said...

This post is excellent. Everyone in the media have been reporting about Matt and Zach, and only recently have we been starting to hear reports about the other big dogs they have.

They've taken a ton of hear regarding the outfield, and normally i'd say tough noogies, the fans and media will just have to wait til 2014. The problem has been Sandy's stupid jokes about the outfield which I'm sure he realizes now was a dumb move. If I'm him, I'd be extra quick to point out that there's another 6 or 7 top arms still to come by 2015.

Also, by that same year, you'd think that at least one of Nimmo, Vaughn, Rodriguez, Puello, or a mystery prospect(2013 draftee), will develop enough to be ready to graduate to Queens. The Mets really shouldn't have too many slots to fill by then with free agents. I don't see why any price should hold them back from acquiring whoever they want.

Also, despite all the pitching, they could sign a top free agent starter and just trade for the outfield help.