8-2-13 - Jeff Sullivan @JSully12 - 2014 HS class is my favorite in a while. Absolutely loaded with arms. No clear cut number 1 guy, but 8-10 who have a legit chance to be - 02 Aug … Mack Ade@JohnMackinAde - @JSully12 - Interesting... Scott Boras told Kevin Kernan yesterday that 2014 is big year for COLLEGE arms - 02 Aug .. Jeff Sullivan @JSully12 - @JohnMackinAde Draft as a whole is loaded!
We’re taking a projection look at second base and all the candidates that have any chance of become the full time second baseman for the New York Mets.
Current – Daniel Murphy – 28-yrs old - .281/.317/.410/.727, 13-E – he’s 24th in the league in hitting and is being paid $2.925mil in his first arbitration year (2016/FA). His defense is still a work in progress, but so would his immediate replacement (Wilmer Flores- turns 22 this week) be. The Mets have sort or created these workable starters that consist of Ike Davis, Murphy, Omar Quintanilla, David Wright, and John Buck in the infield… and Marlon Byrd, Juan Lagares, and Eric Young Jr. in the outfield. It’s worked to the degree that they are winning more than they are losing since they put this together, but they’re not winning enough to become relevant.
Third base stands alone as the one position that doesn’t need to be changed or tweaked. The catcher will take care of itself as soon as Travis d’Arnaud arrives. But all the other positions have what some call ‘holes’, but I call ‘issues’.
Second base, using Murphy, is not an issue to me, as long as Wilmer Flores either plays 2014 in Queens as the first baseman, or is moved for a top prospect ready for either shortstop or the outfield.
The 2014 Mets will have multiple issues and having Flores and Murphy on the same side of the infield could be quite interesting for the official scorer, but my guess is both of these guys are going to spend the off-season once again with Tim Teufel down in the compound.
Sandy Alderson has some important areas to address in the off-season, none of which include pitching, third base, and catching. I keep sitting here every day watching no offense out of this team and they have the RBI leader in the Pacific Coast League in AAA. And don’t give me that rare air shit. Everybody I that league hits the same air and Flores outhits them all. I’m run out of rational reasons why Ike Davis is still around. The risk of Juan Lagares worked… why not Flores on first for the rest of the season (with Josh Satin spelling him)?
Binghamton’s Danny Muno’s numbers have steadily decreased from each level… Brooklyn in 2011: .355… St. Lucie in 2012: .280… Binghamton this year: .254. Additionally, his OBP, SLUG, and OPS have also declined. He’s 24-yrs old and I currently place him heading to the AAAA level after 2014. Of cource, I had Juan Lagares at that level a year ago.
Jorge Rivero – 24-yrs old – A-Savannah – Rivero is playing at two levels two lower than he should, filling in for the injured Phillip Evans. He’s hit .339 at Brooklyn this year (62-AB) and .323 at Savannah (62-AB), but he projects out as only a utility infielder with no pop.
Past that, you have to go to Brooklyn to find a second baseman that should be playing St. Lucie. LJ Mazzilli (22-yrs.-old, .294) is doing fine for the Cyclones, but there is no one blocking him to play at a higher level. I’ve never understood the logic of the Mets drafting college juniors and starting them out in rookie leagues.
Anyone else here (Leon Canelon – 21/yrs. – old – GCL)) is years away from any determination.
So, what do you have here?
You actually have a pretty decent major leaguer and a top level prospect who is leading the AAA in RBIs at 21-years old. Both are a defensive liability but second base looks like one of the more secure positions on this team for years to come.
We talked yesterday about relief pitchers and we need to revisit another one that either gets little or no press in the world of Mets reporting.
How’s this for stats:
He went 7-2, 2.64 for Savannah in 2010
In 2012, he went 37-games, 2.97 for St. Lucie
In 2013, he went 32-games, 3.44 for Binghamton
And in 2013, he’s now throwing 9-G, 1.38 or Las Vegas.
He’s John Church, the 6-3 righty (26-yrs. old) out of the University of West Florida. He’s not a fireballer (260-K in 304-IP, but he doesn’t let balls leave the park either (0.38-HR9). Church has always done what the Mets have asked him to do and he’s now dominating in a league that eats up pitchers.
He should have enough time the rest of this season to determine whether or not he will be invited to the Big Boy Spring Training camp, which would be nice to see. We talk all the time about growing our talent from within and Church is a perfect example of someone worthy of that shot.
Let's revisit this... Church's combined ERA by level: A: 3.27... A+: 3.55... AA: 3.41... AAA: 1.38.
Come on guys... give the dude a shot here...
Gary Seagren –
Good morning Mack, Very enlightening 8/1 a.m. post on the current and future state of BB. As far as my team going forward Harvey, Wheeler and Mejia are locks and we certainly have enough depth to fill the other two spots till Thor and Montero are ready.
Morning Gary… I’m starting to feel that Jonathan Niese will remain as part of the ‘Fab 5’. He would easily be the best SP5 in the National League and I love his contract. As for Montero, the word is he is heading to the bullpen after this season, which may be a very good thing for the Mets. He can’t seem to be developing an additional plus pitch to compliment his fastball. That being said, the FB alone can make him an effective 8th inning reliever if he sets everything up with the heater down the zone.
I would go the trade route for a power bat as I think the Mets will because what's available on the free agent front is not going to put us in a playoff spot and Lagares, EY, Puello (and shouldn't he be doing his PED suspension time now) and Den Decker who's recovered nicely in Vegas NEED TO PLAY. I'd resign Byrd as a free agent for the outfield but that's all. Beltran would have been a good resign the winter after we traded him but ALL players slow down sometime and he'll be 37 next year along with the fact that who say's he'd even come back here? I like Satin as a pinch hitter and bench player and don't see Sandy going into 14' with Ike. I still don't get all the love for Duda and he'd be in Vegas not in Queens for me.
Well, I covered this at the beginning of this post. The Mets now have a basic starting lineup and everyone keeps saying “I love what Byrd has done…” and “isn’t Lagares a wonderful surprise…” and Murphy’s on fire…” and “EYJ has been a wonderful pickup…”. But, here’s the problem.
They don’t score runs.
These players are not going to get you to the playoffs. Do they make the team more competitive and enjoyable to watch? Yes. But, that’s it, Gary.
I'd go for power in a trade at SS (I know a long shot here) or 1st base and that's my first question to you: who would you go for at one of these positions to fill that need? Dream guy would be Tulo but he'd cost us all of our top prospects even if he were available. Also for the life of me I can't understand why Flores is still in Vegas? It's got to be about service time and that stupid super 2 nonsense.
The Mets need bats, period, whether they play shortstop or the outfield.
They also can not include Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard in any trade. You’ve already seen the difference in how this team plays with Harvey or Wheeler on the mound. They can’t lose that.
No General Manager is going to trade his all-star shortstop for the “4th” pitching prospect out of an organization. He’s be laughed out of the GM meetings.
The Mets need to continue to build, train, and develop from within (perfect case is Juan Lagares who has been turned into a major league baseball player), but, for now, they need to take some of that huge pile of money they will have laying around in the off-season and buy someone. I want Choo. Others want Ellsbury. I could give a rat’s ass how much you pay them since it’s not my money… just limit the deal to three years max. You have to fix in out of the outfield positions until guys like Cesar Puello, Dustin Lawley, and Matt den Dekker prove whether or not they can be productive major league outfielders.
When the season began NO ONE could have guessed that Mejia and Lagares would have any impact on this year’s team no less what they've provided which has taken the sting out of the disappointment known as Strike Davis.
Both Mejia and Lagares look like they have solidified a position on the Mets 2014 25-man squad. This is what I’ve been saying lately. You can become better at this sport if, one, you keep trying to improve and, two, you get the chance to play.
On the minor league front could you give me updates on the following players: Lawley, Gorski, Plawecki, den Decker and when will Walters get to Queens?
Lawley is leading his league home runs and has an ETA of sometime in 2015. He still needs a good amount of work on doing things other than hitting the ball out of the park and I wish the Mets would stop playing him on third base…
Gorski will come to camp next spring to compete for a 2014 pen slot…
Plawecki will open next season in Binghamton, end it in Las Vegas, and then wait for the next Travis d’Arnaud injury…
2014 will be the year den Dekker gets his chance to prove he’s a keeper and Walters’ Queens ETA is 2015.
11 comments:
In the last 30 days the Mets are 7th in the NL in runs scored. They are 9th for the season, but that was before the current lineup was put together. Now there is obviously room for improvement, EY probably shouldn't start next year. But the main problem is Ike. He is hitting at a below league average clip for a position which is supposed to have a top offensive player. SS is also a slight problem, but few teams have a good hitting SS so it is really more of a plus than a necessity.
Hey Mack,
I enjoy reading your stuff. Question about Eric Young...is he a viable second base option? OF that can hit a little even if they are up in age (Byrd, Beltran, Choo) will be available via free agency this offseason. Would it make sense to make the switch and try to have a Beltran, Byrd, Lagares outfield with EY as your 2B and leadoff hitter? Immediately the lineup looks quite different.
1. EY
2. Lagares
3. Wright
4. Beltran
5. Byrd
6. first baseman (Ike, Satin, Flores)
7. D'arnaud
8. shortstop (guessing a trade here)
9. pitcher
With solid pitching...I'll take that offense and solid defense in that scenario. Thoughts?
Mets called up Baxter to replace Wright, but I think (I can't believe I'm actually saying this) I would have preferred they call up Duda instead to play LF, put EY at 2nd and slide Murphy over to his natural position of 3B for the next few weeks. Duda had a big night last night and with David out, we're going to need a little bit of pop that Baxter can't provide.
I know, I know, not like Duda can actually provide much power although he's the size of a lumberjack and takes 2-0, 3-1 fastballs right down the middle of the plate. I just think that lineup gives us the most potential to score runs.
EY - 2B
Lagares - CF
Murphy - 3B
Byrd - RF
Duda - LF
Buck - C
Davis - 1B
Quintanilla - SS
We have to spend the rest of the season determining who can actually make this team next year and who we can try to package in a deal this offseason for a OF. I know a lot of people wanted to see Flores get called up, but I'm on the other side and think we should just keep him at AAA putting up big numbers, which will only improve his trade value. Either Murphy or Flores will likely be a part of an offseason trade and getting Murphy some time at 3B will only improve his trade value, especially of he plays a solid 3B since 3B are hard to find.
We have some pieces at the ML level like, Gee, Hefner, Murphy, Duda, Davis, Lagares that can be packaged along with some mid level minor league arms, DeGrom, Verrett, Montero, Bowman, Ynoa, Cessa, Gorski, etc. for an impact bat like Cargo, Gordon, Markakis, Bautista, Ethier, Rios, etc..Along with a free agent signing or two from a list of guys like Ellsbury, Choo, Beltran, Cruz, Byrd, Pence, Hart, Hanrahan, Balfour, Benoit, Madsen, etc. to bolster our OF and backed of the bullpen and we have ourselves a playoff potential team.
Believe it or not, we're in a very good position to after this season to turn this 7 year depressing, embarrassing drought us Mets fans have been in. 2014 has always been the year that Sandy has been preparing for. As of now, we're in the 8th draft slot, but we could just as easily be in either the 5th or 15th slot by the end of the season depending upon where this team takes us. We all know how important the difference between being in the 10th or 11th draft slot, so not that I'm rooting for them to lose, but if we're going to finish in 3rd or 4th, I just hope its not the 11th pick again, which we all know is very likely being a Mets fan. Draft a guy like Trae Turner, Alex Jackson, Jacob Gatewood, Touki Touisant ( I know Mack, HS guys) to bolster our improving farm system.
As a Mets fan, thanks to guys like Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia, Lagares, EY, Parnell, for the first time in a long time, I'm actually starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and see some things to be excited for!
LET'S GO METS!!!
Mack,
Don't forget the 10th pick will be the 11th due to the Blue Jays not signing their first round pick this past draft. I don't see the front office signing a free agent and losing a first round pick. I'm with you on would like to see a Shoo singing as a leadoff instead of EY.
I don't like or want losing either, but this team is not going to make the playoffs and though I understand momentum going into next season, I would prefer a 4/5th pick slot and more international bonus money than finishing in low teens again. Play the young players!!
I’m sort of with you on this (Baxter v. Flores), Closer, though admittedly, when David pulled up lame my first reaction was “well at least we’ll get to see Wilmer.”
Mainly I think showing off Murph at 3B is a good marketing move as you suggest. But I’m off the Davis bandwagon for good (i.e. rest of 2013) and would similarly try marketing Duda/Satin at 1B with Baxter/Brown in LF (a shame we can’t give Puello an mlb exposure which IMO would make Aug. more interesting).
EY/Turner 2B, Lagares CF, Murph 3B, Byrd RF, Duda/Satin 1B, TDA C, Baxter/Puello* LF, Tejada SS would be my lineup until DW returns.
(* OK, Brown)
I'm with you Hobie...I just don't want to just non tender Strike and get nothing for him. I know this sounds counter productive to the betterment of the team, but playing him everyday is the only way he improved his offseason trade value. His value can't get any lower and hopefully he gets hot in August and fools 1 gm into reading for him either individually for a potential big arm closer type or in a package for a big of bat. Just a thought...
“Hopefully gets hot in Aug and fools 1 GM” is my fantasy too—only in LV (or even Bingo with Dykstra getting an AAA shot). Based on THAT performance, I make the decision to (A) non tender, or (B) low-ball in arb. Meanwhile consider any mediocre deal.
I'm sad about this, but heck, I had Hefner-like aspirations for Angel Cuan too. :-)
I'm shocked they called up Baxter....Flores is an RBI machine and two nights ago Terry was crying that the Mets don't drive runners in.
Yeah, Baxter will be the Kleenex to wipe Terry's tears. The only way Baxter is driving in a run, is if the bases are loaded and he walks.
Flores always seems to drive runners in. 85 RBI, 35 doubles, 14 homers, and yet he's still in Vegas.
I'm starting to absolutely hate this FO. Stupid shit like this, coupled with their horrible drafts are going to kill this team in 5 years if something doesn't change. I use to defend them, but I can't anymore.
If it wasn't for the Beltran trade or the Dickey trade, this team would still be in dire straits, looking at a 2014 with Harvey, Wright, Niese, and nobody else on the horizon. The upcoming free agent class sucks, and If Sandy didn't have Omar's players to trade or Omar's draftees and international signings, the Mets would be even more dreadful throughout the entire system.
The 2011 draft is turning into a nightmare unless you consider Leathersich the basis for a successful draft. Fulmer and Nimmo are years away still. Nimmo at this point is a strikeout machine. Fulmer I give a pass because he is still young with a great arm.
2012: Checchini is horrible, just horrible. Maybe he'll be in Queens by 2017 at the rate he's hit the past two seasons. Pawlecki is a good player. Boyd has zero power at first. Reynolds and Koch were horrible picks. Bowman is decent for what round he was picked in.
2013: anyone see the GCL stats? Smith may turn out awesome, but is it too much to ask for to want a first rounder to come out of the gate tearing the cover off the ball?
Anyone see the top 20 international signees? How'd the Mets do in trying to get some of that talent? Did they sign anyone with a chance to become a impact player in 5 years?
The rangers and cubs did great. Between the two of them, they signed like 8 if the top 20 players. That's why they have good systems. They spend the money to ensure their team will still have a feeder fund to pick from in five years.
The only way a Mets minor leaguer from the Alderson FO will ever be a MLB top 50 prospect, is if they trade an established ML player to get one.
Yes, I'm not giving the high school draftees time to develop into what the Mets FO hopes they'll become, but the problem is that even if they do, what's the best outcome? Where's the 30 homer guy? Where's the number 1/2 starter? Who's the next David wright? There isn't one there. They're all average ML at best.
Troy:
I honestly don't know if he is.
I'm sure he's as much of one as Wilmer Flores. He does look to be a little bit of a liability in left field
If I had to guess right now, I'd say the Mets will get the 7th pick
you've been a Cuan groupie since birth :)
Post a Comment