Here’s my ‘Mets Core’ so far for 2014 –
Mets (11) – David Wright, Ike Davis, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Bobby Parnell, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia
AAA (14) – Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Logan Verrett, Jake deGrom, Dan Gorski, Eric Goeddel, Adam Kolarek, Jeff Walters, Danny Muno, Alan Dykstra, Cesar Puello, Alonzo Harris, Darrell Ceciliani, Wilfredo Tovar
AA (17) – Domingo Tapia, Rainy Lara, Matt Bowman, Cory Mazzoni, Brett Mitchell, Randy Fontanez, TJ Chism, Hamilton Bennett, Jayce Boyd, TJ Rivera, Matt Reynolds, Kevin Plawecki, Alex Panteleodes, Hansel Robles, Kyle Johnson, Aderlin Rodriguez, Gilbet Gomez
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Loses as of Tuesday morning –
1) Houston – 82… 2) Miami – 75… 3) White Sox – 74… 4) Cubs – 70… 5) Brewers – 70… 6) Phillies – 69… 7) Twins – 69… 8) Padres – 68… 9) Giants – 68… 10) Angels 68… 11) Rockies - 68... 12) Toronto – 67… 13) Seattle – 66… 14) Mets 66
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I’ve been waiting for the signs that the Mets are throwing in the towel and will begin to finally operate with 2014 in mind. I think the first sign happened on Sunday when a story came out that catcher Travis d’Arnaud would be getting ‘significant time’ behind the plate. Actually, the first sign involved David Wright and was much more subtle. As you have noticed, there is no sign of him in Florida and the official rehab program has still not begun. All reports are that he’s back in New York seeing doctors there, but, trust me, if the team was three games out of first place, Wright would be in St. Lucie getting worked on each and every morning.
No, the team is starting to shut down and this is a good thing. As I mentioned yesterday, and outlined above, the 2014 version of this team will be built around the 11 players I have singled out. This doesn’t mean you won’t see some of the same names we have come to grow accustomed to this season, but, at this point, none are etched in stone.
Take Matt den Dekker. I expect him to be on the 2014 25-man in some capacity, either as a platoon centerfielder with Juan Lagares, or alongside of him in right; however one free agent signing of either Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran, or Jacob Ellsbury could change all that in an instant. Either way, you are going to see a lot of den Dekker come September and he’ll get another chance to prove he can hit MLB pitching,
Past that, it’s not who you will see, but who you may not see. David Aardsma has been being banged around lately and he could probably be a viable candidate to being shut down early. And even though it seems like the Mets are running out of starters, both Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler will continue to have their innings reduced until they are shut down. Among possible additions for the pen would be John Church and Tim Byrdak.
Both Las Vegas and Binghamton will most probably be in their own playoffs in the beginning of September; however, ‘household names’ like Matt Fox, Chris Schwinden, Giancarlo Alvarado, and Mark Cahoon all will be ready for the phone call that would send them to Queens.
I really would like to see this process continue. Give guys like d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Ike Davis all the at-bats they can handle. Continue to showcase Niese and Gee for any possible trade interest to improve on your core. And shut down tired arms that cuold easily wind up with future problems.
B-Mets injuries last night: Darrell Ceciliani out with a turned ankle, Wilfredo Tovar hurt his let wrist, and Cory Vaughn was beaned and had to leave the game.
Michael Scannell on Dillon Gee -
He just keeps rolling. He has a 2.27 ERA over his last 15 starts (103 innings). What do you think his trade value us now? Do you think it's as high as Niese's was last offseason?
Mack – It’s all in the marketing of the player.
In free agency, it comes from the agents. In trades, it’s the current GM or Asst. VPs. But… and this is a big but (and I’ve been stressing this for a long time)… you are never going to be successful in trading Gee or Niese unless you finally convince the entire league that they will never get your hands on Harvey, Wheeler, or Syndergaard, Until then, everyone will hold out waiting for YOU to cave.
Dillon Gee has about as much flair as Tom Glavine. The difference is all the attention on the Mets goes to the speed ballers. I have absolutely no problems with him being the SP5 in an eventual ‘dream rotation’ of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Mejia, but you’re going to have a much easier time trading for the MLB-ready or MLB-tested players you need, if you are dealing equally tested rotational starters (Niese and Gee) than projected future stars (Montero).
There are a number of teams looking for rental starters for Sept-Oct, and Gee just doesn't fit the profile. Trading pitchers like him usually happen in the off-season. The Mets are down to two decent rentals... Marlon Byrd and John Buck...
I don’t think the Mets have the guts to pull this off right now, though, in the long run, it would be the right thing to do. The Mejia injury really fucked up the soup. His unexpected arrival this year finished off a complete rotation (Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia) to go to camp with and change your target to improvement rather than completion. The arrival of both Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard during the 2014 season would be the trigger to set off a couple of decent trades that could fill in the 25-man holes. Now, we're still back to the completion stage.
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Kevin Shelly asked -
Mack, Looking ahead to the offseason, it's seems to me that we would match up extremely well with the Cubs. They are loaded with position prospects with minimal pitching. They are particularly loaded at SS. Starlin Castro, Javier Baez, Alcantara and Junior Lake. I highly doubt they would move Baez, even for a package built around Wheeler or Noah, but what do you think about the other three? Don't really know much about Junior Lake but it looks like he has held his own with the bat since his call up. Obviously acquiring Castro would be the blockbuster the fan base will be looking for. What are your thoughts on the Mets search or their future shortstop?
Mack – First, a little history here. The Tribune Company bought the Cubs in 1981 for $20,5mil and sold a 95% share of the team and a 25% share of Comcast SportNet in 2009 to TD Ameritrade for $845mil. Forbes magazine then valued the team in 2013 at $1bil.
See, you don’t need to win at this business to make money.
BP Cot estimated the Cubs 2013 salaries at $106,837,810, down from $109,316,00 in 2012. It’s still a far throw from the crazy days of 2010 ($144mil – Soriano, Zembrano, Ramirez, Fukedome, Dempster, Lee, Lilly, Silva)
Chicago may have moved Soriano to the Yankees but they still have to pay him a shit load of money through 2014. Additionally, they always dump contracts. That’s what they do. They play with their fan base by signing free agents and then dump them a couple of years later.
Kevin, I know Castro is having a Ruben Tejada kind of year (.244 after three years of .300, .307, .283), but I’m sort of worn out on future prospects right now. I’d like to see the Mets fill in a few holes with some established major league starters and Castro is definitely one of them.
The contract is easily affordable ($5.857mil in 2014 up to $10.857 in 2019). He’s 23-years old and has showed a little pop (1066 in 2011, 14/78 IN 2012) as well.
I’ll take the player and the contract and even throw in a secondary pitching prospect.
With Travis d’Arnaud staying in Queens, all of a sudden the Mets are catcher heavy. Well, they might want to get on the telephone with Oakland who is down to one healthy backup catcher, who actually has played third base the last two years. Derek Norris went down with back spasms, leaving Josh Donaldson as the only backup available. Donaldson came up as a catcher, but they’re going to need more than that in September. It may not be a bad time to talk Buck deal.
39 comments:
Do you think a montero and Vaughn for castro trade works for both sides? We should definitely trade buck and Byrd ASAP. I don't think Byrd will pass through waivers though. But we should see if we can trade him to whomever claims him.
Well, on the surface, I think it would work big time for the Mets.
You simply never know how other teams scout and quality your players but I would guess that Montero is way up there as a probable SP 3-4 some day.
So you're on the Ike Davis bandwagon? I was soured on him last year even after the 32 home runs when he was virtually useless for 3 months and then even worse this year. His "revival" as a Punch and Judy hitter makes me long for Jose Abreu as my first choice for next year, followed closely by Wilmer Flores moving to the corner opposite David Wright.
I would be very excited if the Mets could land Castro in the offseason. The Cubs appear to be set with Baez another year away. They could move Castro to 3B but they have Olt ready now and Bryant not too far away. There is going to be an infield logjam and Castro seems to be their best trade piece to land a starting pitcher to team up with Samardzija and a big free agent (David Price?) to build a rotation around. Does a deal of Montero & Familia get it done? Montero could jump into the rotation next year and Familia could grow into their late inning reliever.
What do you think?
I think Gonzales German should be in your first group 'core 14 Mets.' He's already accomplished more as a Met than Familia. I really like the way he looks on the mound. And he's already had some 'trials' in reasonably high leverage situations.
A 2014 pen that includes both Familia and German and then maybe one or two young arms would be very exciting. Not unlike the excitement surrounding Flores, Lagares and d'Arnaud. There will be growing pains but that's a necessary part of building a sustained winner.
I think the power will return as the confidence continues.
His secret is NOT swinging at the curve balls into the dirt. Pitchers knew he would go after anything that started in the zone. Someone has cured Ike of that (you would think at this point in someone's professional career they could figure that out themselves) and he's now willing to wait.
Thus, the pitchers have to pitch to him.
I don't think the power returns until next year. Right now, the confidence is still on the rise
I can't speak to Flores on first. The Mets simply didn't allow him enough reps there while in the minors. I like my first basemen to be first basemen.
I want Flores on 2nd and a new shortstop.
I think Epstein is going to want several 'plus' arms in a deal for Castro. If he likes Montero as the centerpiece then I'd also expect him to ask for guys like Mazzoni, DeGrom and/or Tapia. But, man, adding Castro (and Jose Abreu, the Cuban??) would really be exciting. Then they could jettison Murphy and Davis to restock the farm or get an OF.
Montero is one of the team's main trade chip. We can safely assume that Wheeler and Harvey are set for 2014. Niese, Gee, Mejia, and Montero will all be ready on opening day (though the Mets might chose to hold back Montero in AAA if no trade develops with one of these guys).
If one does, someone has to be moved and it won't be Mejia with his injury history.
Right now, trade value wise, Gee is #1, Montero #2, and Niese #3.
I'd hate to lose the potential of Familia, but that's all it is right now... potential.
Yeah, I'd make that deal today.
You may be right about G.G.G.
I simply forgot him :)
What about Michael Fulmer?
I honestly don't understand the love for Castro. He's not a great baseball player.
I honestly believe people who would trade a top 50 prospect and then some more for a shortstop who does little well except get base hits some seasons have a misunderstanding of the game of baseball.
Starlin Castro is not a good shortstop. He has never been a good defensive shortstop and never will be.
Starlin Castro does not walk.
Starlin Castro does not hit for power.
Starlin Castro has speed? Oh, but only 8 stolen bases this year and has gotten caught in over a third of his attempts for his career, making him a subtraction on the base paths.
Starlin Castro can hit? Sure, when his BABIP is INSANELY high. This is the first year he's had a BABIP around league average and he's hitting .240 and has been one of the most useless middle infielders in baseball.
Starlin Castro is not a good baseball player.
You don't trade away potential impact arms for subpar baseball players, even if you think you have a need.
Ruben Tejada would be better at short than Castro, with or without keeping a top 50 prospect and a future closer.
Come on guys.
I think Mack only included player at AA or above. Otherwise, there are some nice keepers in the lower ranks (Ynoa, Matz, Nimmo, Brown, Cecchini, Fulmer, Tapia)
I'm sort of neutral on Castro but I recognize that this team needs a new shortstop that can generate some additional offense. Castro can. And, the Mets have an excess of mid-range prospect talent to possibly get this done.
You know me... I'd first go big and try and pull off a Tulo deal.
Fulmer is still young and showing repeated injury problems (hurt shoulder last night)... talent wise, I project him high but it's tough to be a 'core' player at the A+ level
This is why there is a comment section.
Hi Mack,
It's been a while. I'm with you regarding Ike. It's been infuriating to watch him go through that slump but I feel like he had an mental breakthrough in AAA with Wally. The power will come again if he maintains this approach as well as a decent BA and crazy OBP, especially if he has protection in the lineup. Also, while I want him to hit against some LHP I feel like we should keep satin to start against elite LHP and he can also grab starts at the other infield spots minus shortstop.
I'm officially on the trade Murphy bandwagon. Love the guy, solid player but we need to make room for Flores who could easily hit +20 home runs at 2nd. I also like his overall approach more then Murphy, I can easily see Flores as an 800 or better OPS guy.
You know I can't write a post without putting up a proposed lineup...
Castro SS
Ellsbury LF
Wright 3b
Davis 1B
Flores 2b
d'Arnaud c
Lagares cf
??? RF
For right you can resign Bryd as a placeholder until Puello is ready, or you can put Ellsbury in right and keep starting EYjr in left untill Puello is ready. I like Ellsbury at the corner because it saves his legs and helps keep him healthy.
I'm hoping we could trade Montero, Murph and 1-2 secondary prospects for castro. This team would be ready to rock starting next year and woule likely get better through the year as Thor and Puello come up.
Well, your leadoff hitter isn't going to make Stephen happy... :)
Regarding Murphy, you can only play four guys in the infield (didn't some team play 5 the other day?). If Davis is your first baseman than either Flores or Murphy has to go. The sad part is both are better pure hitters than any of the kids trying out for the outfield (not counting Byrd).
My tie-breaker is always age, though I still pray that Flores can turn the double play.
Would Castro actually be an upgrade? He's having one of the worst seasons by a shortstop in the last 20 years on both sides of the ball.
He's just not good, Mack.
Haha. Just trying to offer a different opinion.
I just think we need to examine what we actually need. A shortstop who doesn't get on base, isn't using his speed, seems to have lost the ability to catch up to a fastball, and is a poor defender is not what this team needs.
I know Starlin Castro is a sexy name to want to add to the team but he would not improve it.
Especially--ESPECIALLY at the cost of Montero and then some.
I still haven't seen the report on him hurting his shoulder. He left after fielding a comebacker which leads me to believe it's not a throwing injury. Still sucks that he's hurt but Toby Hyde saying "It's the shoulder/this is cause for concern" is a bit ridiculous. It's not a throwing injury. It was a fielding injury.
We'll see.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO on Castro. Do you actually know what this kid has done in his career?
I swear, you have one good season and people anoint you the second coming.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4579&position=SS Here's his stat page. If you can tell me one thing he does well--just ONE thing, I will concede the point. (Hint: You won't be able to)
In terms of trades and the situation between Flores and Murphy.
Don't be surprised if the team DOES NOT deal either of them this off-season. I have to figure that Flores is going to spend the off-season with 3B coach Tim Teufel. If he could get Murphy to become a servicable 2B perhaps he can do the same with Flores.
That being said the team is not going to handicap themselves if Flores CANNOT improve his footwork. If he doesn't well then we are going to have an interesting Spring Training problem. If he does improve look for Murphy to get traded in March.
Plus why would you bat Castro leadoff anyway? He doesn't get on base and his speed has actually been a subtraction over his career because he's not a good base runner. No if you get Castro, you slot him 8th in your lineup and hope his black hole OBP won't suck the life out of any rally you might think of having--cuz his defense will in the bottom of the inning...
I give you his bad season.
I simply try and find alternatives to put up on the site for all of us to discuss.
I mentioned Erick Aybar also in an another post.
My role here is to let everyone know what's going on out there in case something goes down with the Mets. The Cubs always move players and I was asked which of the four shortstops in the Cubs system would I choose.
I said that I'm getting a little tired of projected futures and I'd like my current holes (SS, RF, CF) filled with real players.
The closest thing to a real SS on the Cubs is Castro.
Stephen,
I appreciate your input and I get where you are coming from. Castro is still just 23 and he has already posted two seasons with a WAR over 3 as a 21 & 22 year old. I'd take him even at the expense of Montero.
Unless the Mets find a prospect that they feel stronger about (Chris Owings from Arizona comes to mind or one of the Cubs prospects), this would be their chance to add a young impact bat.
I talked to a team official in St. Lucie the morning after the game.
It's a shoulder issue
If I'm the mets and going to part with what you guys are saying...1-2 elite prospects and another player or two, I'm getting Elvis Andrus. THAT would be worth it. Castro is not.
LOL
Okay... how about Bernadette Castro ?
His WAR was offensively driven. His offense was BABIP driven. You just cannot sustain BABIP of .360 for your career. Unless you're Miguel Cabrera. He's not.
His balls in play average has come down and he's been a SUBTRACTION (-0.5) to his team this year.
He's striking out more.
He's walking less.
His defense has and always will be bad.
Remind me why we'd give up Montero for him when we could use him to get an actual good ball player?
Soto -
Here's the rub...
Flores is NOT going to improve his footwork. They've been trying to do that since his first year in Savannah. He has the grace of a cow and was made to be a DH.
You keep playing this guy at 3B for the rest of this year.
You also keep playing Daniel Murphy at 2B and show off his timely bat.
And you tell David Wright to stay home with his girlfriend.
SOMEBODY in baseball will call the Mets and determine the fate of one of these two guys.
Castro sure don't look like a moneyball player type that would interest Alderson. I'd be shocked if all this speculation became reality. But, ya never know.
Castro for those two don't make cents to me. You have to ask yourself if your team is better for it.
The Meta: are the better with Tejada, Montero, and Vaughn in two years or will they be better with simply Castro?
I think Castro won't produce at such a level that it outweighs the production of all three of the other players.
To me, SS shouldn't be a huge problem on this team. Tejada is still young and with the Mets pitching staff, current infield, and upgrades in the outfield, they won't need him to be a superstar. He just needs to play good defense and hit .270.
Stephen, the Rangers can keep Castro at that contract.
Confirmed: It's right bicep tendinitis, not a shoulder injury. Looks good. Will miss one start and get evaluated but this shouldn't be serious.
Yea, after looking at the insanity of the way that's structured, I'd agree. I just really like him as a player but no, he's not worth 15% of our budget--you're right.
Trust me though...Castro is not the answer. I'd rather Ruben.
I agree. This isn't a Sandy player (read, this isn't a good ball player). Not happening.
are you talking about Fulmer...
here's what I did... I called the Mets... they told me it was the shoulder... I printed the shoulder... obviously, they gave me bad info...
to be honest guys, I have had enough of this discussion on Castro... thank you
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