The state of the New York Mets first base situation has been quite the roller coaster this season as injuries to Lucas Duda, the poor overall season of Ike Davis and the clamor of fans to give Wilmer Flores a shot in the corner when David Wright returns from injury leave the position in a constant state of flux. There is obviously plenty of time left in the season to evaluate each and determine whether one of these players will stick long term, but what if none of these players makes the choice clear? First base will become a bigger question mark and the answer to that question should be Jose Abreu.
Abreu, 26, is a recent Cuban defector who will become an available free agent in the coming months. He is listed around 6'3" and weighs around 250 lbs. and plays first base. Saying he plays first base might actually be a farce because he should be listed as a hitter. Scouts have talked about how Abreu's strength as the No. 4 international prospect in the World Baseball Classic and it has nothing to do with his glove. It has everything to do with his bat.
His numbers stand out the most during the 2010-11 season where in just 66 games, he hit .453 to go along with 33 home runs and 93 RBIs and won an MVP award. Those are more akin to number in a video game numbers and yet his two most recent seasons do little to prove that his MVP season was anything close to an outlier. Through 2011-12 seasons, Abreu had a slash line of .394/.542/.837 with 35 home runs while missing time with bursitis in his elbow. This season, he only played 42 games because of the World Baseball Classic and that slash line slightly dropped to .382/.535./.735 with 13 home runs. Oh, and during the WBC, Abreu hit .360 with three homers in just 25 plate appearances. Imagine that sort of production in the heart of the Mets lineup?
Actually, we have imagined numbers like that. Before Ike Davis broke his leg, Mets fans had dreams of a .300 hitter with 30+ home run potential slotted in the cleanup spot every night. Obviously those dreams have become more nightmarish with each passing year. Lucas Duda, was a power bat that never had a position and just can't seem to stick anywhere on the field. We all want him to succeed, but it’s fair to question whether that success and lofty hopes will ever come. Wilmer Flores is someone that has been slotted into the Mets dream lineup by countless fans since he was 16. His position has changed every two years, his range diminishing and taking him all the way around the infield. He can be a quality run producer, but his power doesn't come close to the others. Maybe if we mashed them all together we could create a great first baseman. Or we could set our sights on Abreu. We could change that dream of any of the three aforementioned players to one where the next great Cuban player comes to Flushing and takes this team to a whole new level.
Cuban players have had their stock skyrocket because of the wild success of players like Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes and Aroldis Chapman in the majors and Abreu figures to fit right into that conversation. He is supposed to have more power than Cespedes, which is something crazy to think about when you remember the show he put on during the Home Run Derby at Citi Field last month. Yasiel Puig has helped the LA Dodgers from worst to first in the blink of an eye and Aroldis Chapman has been a dominant closer for years now. People have been failing to mention Jose Fernandez along with the great Cuban players in the league right now. What I'm trying to say is, Cuba has been churning out impact players lately and the Mets need to join the craze. Everyone is looking for the next Puig and Abreu can be that guy.
Now, would the Mets shell out the money to sign Jose Abreu? His contract will certainly be more than Puig's 7 year, $42 million contract. If the contract was for 6 years and about $50 million, who says no? That contract, comparative to other impact first basemen in the league would be considered peanuts. It would take him through the rest of his prime years, and would fill an enormous need of a consistent power bat. Don't forget, in the upcoming free agent class, there isn't one single bat that comes even close to the power and potential of Jose Abreu. Some scouts have likened him to Ryan Howard. Mets fans will of course have a strong disdain for this comparison, but that is because the 26 year old Howard that we know wasn't on our team. Remember that Ryan Howard? The one who hit 58 home runs and drove in 149 RBIs while running away with the league's MVP? I'll take that kind of guy on my team for $50 million or more any day. I would also rather we have him than teams like the Washington Nationals or the Miami Marlins, where we can see him in countless at bats helping the competition. Both are teams that make a ton of sense for Abreu and will certainly be in the bidding war.
It really comes down to whether the Mets will stick to their plan. Abreu serves as a fork in the road for this franchise. Do they stay on their current path and let the hometown guys fight it out, or do they go a different way, chase a Cuban star and make a splash in free agency that could stake a claim that the Mets can be competitive? The time to make that decision will come and all we can do is hope we make the right one. Go big, get Jose Abreu.
9 comments:
Gary Seagren asked me about Abreu which I am answering tomorrow in my morning report.
I would definitely go after him. The only thing that worries me about the Ryan Howard comparison is that he's a strikeout machine. If the Mets got Abreu, I'd still like them to pursue a trade for another MOTO bat through a trade and stack the lineup. With all the money coming off the books the team should be able to afford Abreau +.
In one word, Abso-f'ing-lutely!!!!
The problem is, the Mets haven't, nor will they be players in this type of market. This is just not the way The Sandman works. Based on his time with us, the largest contract he's offered has been Frank Francisco's 2 yr, $12M deal. Abreu will likely be in high demand from atleast 5 NL teams looking for a 1B and almost every AL team looking for a DH/1B., which means a bidding war and automatically disqualifies us. Alderson looks for guys like Byrd or Young to build rosters, who know one is pursuing, so no big money or years need to be committed, hence 4th place finishes have been the norm around here since his arrival.
At this point, we are currently in the 14th slot in reverse standings, which means our 1st round pick would be unprotected and therefore forfeited if we signed a top free agent that has been offered a qualifying offer, ie. Choo, Ellsbury, Beltran possibly getting qualifying offers from their respective teams. We all see what that meant this offseason going after Bourn, which makes me nervous this year going after an OF bat on the FA market.
Signing (1B) Jose Dariel Abreu would not cost a 1st round selection, which is extremely important to this team. Given Abreu is only 26 (beginning of the prime of a players career), giving him a 6-7 year deal makes perfect sense since at the end if the contract, he'll still only be 32-33 yrs old vs signing an Ellsbury or Choo to 6-7 year deals where they will be 36-37 at the end of their deals collecting $15-20M a year.
I wouldn't even have an issue adding additional years if it was the make or break on whether we sign him or not. Based on the performances of Puig, Cespedes, Chapman, Fernandez, etc, so far and given that Abreu's numbers are absolutely mind boggling, they will be a lot of suitors for him. Abreu actually has 100 more BB's that K's in the last 4 years combined, UNREAL?!??
Needless to say, we have a need at 1B, regardless of what Ike is doing at the plate right now. It's a little too late for him now to be performing now considering its August and were way out of the race now. The best thing we can do now is just let him play the year out and hopefully deal him in either a package for an OF or prospects to a team like Colorado or the White Sox who will need a 1B next season.
I'm trying to mentally prepare myself for the excuses we will hear this offseason as to why he doesn't fit in with type of player Sandy is looking for, which we all know that just means he wants more than a 2 year contract and more than $6M/yr, which means he's out of our price range.
I too wasnt a big Omar fan for guys like (Perez, Castillo, Bay, etc) but I know if he were still around, we would atleast be trying to make a play for this potential power hitting 1B that could anchor the clean up role until 2020. It may take 7 years, $85M to do so, but if he turns out to be what we hope he does, thats an absolutel steal. Even if it doesn't work out, he can't be worse than Strike Davis has been and atleast shows the fans that they are trying to actually improve the team now to create a potential playoff, dare I say championship team!!
(Jeez... I wish you would do these kind of things as a writer...)
Mack, I'm actually on vacation with the family this week down the shore and we almost got hit with a tornado today so I had some free time to write a little bit. If I had the free time, I definitely would be writing here more.
We have to do this mets fans we need this guy. We can still make trades and sign free agents but no draft pick compensation and the fact that ike stinky davis is due for a 6 7 million dollar payday through arbitration we need abreu.
The Bourn experience and the team's recent play (resulting in a lower draft pick) have me concerned about the free agent situation this offseason. However, Sandy was still holding off for 2014 and I don't think Bourn was the type of player he really wanted to commit to. Now that things are coming together more and Sandy knows the team is going to have to start winning more games, I think he'll be more likely to sign someone like Choo or Ellsbury, even if he does so reluctantly.
hey Closer great job and I couldn't agree with you more. It makes too much sense that's why it won't happen. Look I like the job Sandy's been doing and certainly our minor league teams are showing great improvement but wouldn't a player like Abreu not only create a huge buzz (and a Cuban player in NY...please!)next spring but also show us long suffering fans that the Madoff mess is behind us and that Freddy's finally going to put his money where his mouth is....he did promise us in the spring that our $$$ problems are over....now PROVE it!
sorry .....meant Matthew Silva AND the Closer
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