12/12/09

Elmer, Bay, Cameron, Redding... and Josh Thole


1. Elmer Dessens:


The Mets resigned 39-year old RP Elmer Dessens. The contract calls for $700,000 per year prorated if he plays in the majors, or $90,000/year prorated for his time in the minors. It’s a one-year deal, which also has incentive bonuses up to an additional $150,000/year.


Dessens pitched for both the Buffalo AAA affiliate in 2009 (3-2, 2.31, 1.04, in 28 relief appearances) and the New York Mets (0-0, 3.31, 1.04, in 28 appearances.


I think it is safe to assume that he was signed to play in Queens for the 2010 season, so I will add back $700,000 salary on my hit sheet and send it back out on the web site. There can’t possibly be a reason to sign a 39-year old to pitch in AAA.


Opinion: It’s simple. It doesn’t matter what his age is. If he can WHIP 1.00 in 2010, it’s a great and cheap signing. His return, plus the return of Tobi Stoner, and the addition of Clint Everts, should make the Mets pen one of the strongest in the National league.


2. Jason Bay:

The feeling in the lobby of the Indianapolis Marriott yesterday was that the Mets have become unsatisfied with the price of middle-tier free agents and decided that if they’re going to spend, they’re going to go for one of the top players on the market. Bay’s dead-pull right-handed power could be a fit for Citi Field, which is otherwise a power graveyard, as sluggers David Wright, Gary Sheffield and Carlos Beltran (10 homers apiece) learned last season. According to multiple sources, the Red Sox are in a holding pattern until they sort out their left field situation, with Bay their top target - bostonherald

I’m still wondering… If Bay signs with the Mets, what do you do with Frenchy? Do you offer him only a one-year deal, hoping Martinez will stay uninjured in Buffalo and finally have a full season?


3. Mike Cameron:

One of the problems with applying this conclusion to Mike Cameron is that at first glance, he seems not to fit the model. He did play one full season in a corner outfield spot, and many of us remember it well as the year Carlos Voltron usurped his center field position, where "Cammy" had been oh-so-stellar through most of his career. His UZR in right field actually decreased from the marks he'd been putting up prior, and his career UZR/150 is lower in right field than in center field. There are some problems with this type of analysis though. First, there is no UZR data prior to 2002, Cameron's age 29 season. Intuitively, adding this hypothetical "missing data" you might say that it would probably bring his career UZR/150 in center field up, only enhancing the separation. But if we assume that prior to 2002 Cameron had been an elite center fielder, in line with much of the UZR data we have as well as his reputation, it does look like there's an actual drop-off in his production right before 2005. Rather than providing elite defense in center in 2004, he was merely decent. He had a 4.0 UZR in 135 games, which is his career low up until that point using the data available, and could have very well been his career low up until that point if there was data available prior to 2002. And then, when Cameron returned to center field after being traded away by the Mets in 2006, his UZR fell to -0.1 in 141 games, and the following year all the way to -10.2 in 150 games. Its bounced back in the two seasons since to the elite level it was at prior to 2004, but it does look like Cameron may have just gone through a sustained period of his career where his defense simply wasn't as good as its been at other times. In fact, if you tally up his UZR in the roughly 430 games he played in center field from 2004-2007, his UZR/150 mark is -2.25. While that may not be a 10 run difference from his 1.9 UZR mark from 2005 in RF, it is much more consistent looking with Tango's results than just looking at Cameron's career scope, and it also falls within the realm of a typical normal distribution swing given the sample sizes we're dealing with. In addition, -1.4 of Cameron's right field UZR mark comes from a career worst ErrR, which is at least as likely to be a small sample size aberration as a representation of an actual skill difference, if not moreso.

I’m still a big fan of signing Cameron for one year… if… the Mets can’t get a hulk in left field. He’s a former golden glover in CF, which is good backup for Beltran, just in case. -
amazinavenue 


4. Tim Redding:

Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post says Tim Redding and Jeremy Reed are unlikely to be tendered contracts by tonight’s midnight deadline.According to Hubbuch, while the early speculation was the Mets might not tender a contract to John Maine, they are now expected to do so, along with Pedro Feliciano and Jeff Francoeur - fantasysp. 


5. Josh Thole:

Josh Thole and Jose Castillo have identical .381 averages and .470 OBAs. Castillo has the better slugging percentage as a result of his seven homeruns. Josh went 7 for 18 in his last four games while Jose Castillo’s four hit game yesterday tied him for second in hitting with Josh. Jose is 17 for his last 34 with 13 runs driven in his last eight games. - mwob

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