6/9/12

Mets 2012 Draft Recap and Opinion

As many of you know, I covered the Mets 2012 Amateur Draft for Mack here. As many of you who were following along with me know, I supported the first two Met picks in SS Gavin Cecchini and C Kevin Pawlecki. While the Cecchini pick made total sense to me, I scratched my head a bit at the Pawlecki pick because I felt that he would still be around by the Mets second round pick. I also saw a lot of high school talent on the board that I would have preferred.


However, the Mets took a lot of talent in the later rounds and a number of them are tough high school signs. One of those players, 12th rounder Chris Flexen, has agreed to a contract with the Mets (according to his friend's Twitter--so take that with a grain of salt). Given what the Mets draft team knew about their strategy for later rounds, the Pawlecki pick accomplished two things: Gave the Mets a badly needed catcher in the system (not to mention a catcher a number of draft pundits consider the best college option all around behind Mike Zunino) and will allow them to save money to invest it elsewhere.


After the first two picks, I expected them to make a splash on a high school player just to find another safe college pick. The riskier pick would have to wait just one more pick when the Mets selected a young pitcher I really like-- RHP Teddy Stankiewicz. Before Teddy was another head scratcher for me in UT/3B/SS/2B Mark Reynolds, an infielder who had an excellent college season but few experts consider anything more than a UT IF as a professional. After Reynolds, the Mets went the college reliever route with Matt Koch. While I like the Cecchini pick, am okay with the Pawlecki and Koch picks, and very much like the Stankiewicz selection, I am still a bit puzzled about the Reynolds choice that early. I hope he proves me wrong. Apparently the Mets will start him off as a shortstop in the minors. That improves his stock quite a bit.


While I was somewhere between pleased and puzzled after the first few rounds, rounds 4-8 had me jumping out of my seat. Not only were these players around, but the Mets actually drafted them. Rounds 4-8 went like this:


SS/2B Branden Kaupe
RHP Brandon Welche
1B Jayce Boyd
RHP Corey Oswalt
C Thomas Nido


I am not stretching any imagination when I say that I see all five of these players as major league average players at minimum.


Kaupe becomes one of the fastest runners (his website cites what looks like a scouting event of some sort in which he ran a 6.46 (!) 60) in the system at a premium position if he sticks at short. Kaupe has agreed to sign with the Mets and while he does not possess the size most scouts look for, he brings glove, speed, and hitting ability which is all you need from a middle infielder. Guys like this can surprise you. Keep an eye on him.


Welche gets some criticism because he is only 6'1" but he already throws in the mid-90s and has a nice slider. Mlb.com raves about both pitches, saying he has excellent command of his offerings and does not walk many. When you have two plus pitches, you are at least a good reliever. If Welche can prove he can start, his value increases even more. He will have to find success early and advance quickly. Coming out of a community college, Welche turns 21 in a couple months.


I cannot believe Mr. Jayce Boyd fell all the way to round 6. I have read nothing bad about this kid. While he lacks the jaw-dropping power typically associated with the position, Jayce does everything right. His coaches have raved about his defense, he hits for a high average, gets on base, and has good baseball intellect. Scouts see something called "raw power". What that means, in Jayce's case, is that they see it there, given his swing, size, and strength, but he has yet to turn it into actual gopher balls. It was this failure to hit the ball over the fence that made 199 players--many of which are not as talented--get selected before Boyd. Alex Nelson over at Amazin' Avenue likened Boyd to J.T. Snow and I really like that comparison. (Check out their draft coverage--it is fantastic, by the way). In case you missed it, J.T. Snow had an excellent major league career. Players who fall because of one missing tool can be absolute steals in later rounds. That is exactly what the Mets got here and just imagine if he taps into his power--Jayce Boyd could be a top-10 prospect in the Mets system within a year.


I honestly never thought of Cory Oswalt as a pitcher until he was drafted as one by the Mets. He had more hype as a third baseman but had an excellent season as a pitcher and his size and potential changed minds from the start of the season to now. I can see why the Mets want him as a pitcher. While he throws in the high-80s and touching 90 while throwing a good--albeit inconsistent--breaking pitch, his size 6'4", 200 lbs and frame suggest he could be a work horse starter down the road. Oswalt might be one of the furthest prospects from the majors of those we drafted, but it's about upside and Oswalt has it. He has a lot of work to do but this is a great pick for round seven.


Now to my favorite all around pick from the Mets 2012 draft- C Thomas Nido. I had Nido in the top 10 catchers in the draft and the Mets got him with the 260th overall pick. The reason Nido fell was because many thought he would not stick behind the plate. I cannot speak to this--I am not a scout. There are issues with his arm accuracy and footwork but he also has an excellent pop time. He's also 18 years old. The reason there are so many minor league teams, coaches, trainers, nutritionists, psychologists, specialists, and managers in the minors are to nurture and develop young players. What you cannot teach is plus-plus power and that is what Nido brings to the table. If he learns how to utilize his strengths as a catcher--his size and his pop time--complement that with other skills needed to stick behind the dish, and continue to develop his outstanding power, he will be one of the--if not the single-- best player to come out of this draft for the Mets.


The draft continued to round out well and the Mets starting taking a number of tall, right-handed pitchers in the later rounds. They took, at one point starting in the 10th round, seven straight RHP. They then took a break with a catcher and a lefty and then proceeded to take 5 out of 6 RHP again.


In that streak, the Mets found Chris Flexen in the 12th round--a pitcher many thought should be a top-100 talent or something close to it. He was available this late because of signability concerns but the Mets are rumored to have convinced him to sign with the team and start his professional career.


Flexen is just one of many high schoolers I feel the Mets will go over-slot to sign in later rounds.


In short, you cannot judge the Mets on their first few picks. You must look at it as a whole. When you can convince a player like Thomas Nido in the 8th round and Chris Flexen in the 12th to play professional baseball and have the money to sway their decision in favor of pro-ball, it works to your favor when considering the draft as a whole. It also makes for a well-rounded draft, which it looks like the Mets have. They were conservative with the first few picks but took chances later on which have already paid off.


A lot of fans commented on my draft posts or messaged me with the complaint that "I could have had Hawkins and Smoral instead of Cecchini and Plawecki". Okay, great. But try signing them for what the Mets did for their first two picks and still have the money to convince Nido and Flexen to join the organization. I'd rather have Cecchini, Plawecki, Nido, and Flexen than just Hawkins and Smoral. That is, of course, my opinion and only time will tell whether or not this draft was a success. But this was a strategic draft with the spending allotments and Sandy, Ricciardi & Co. played it very intelligently and I believe we are just seeing the beginning of their deliberations and decisions.


My .02 on the matter. Comment below if you disagree.


--Stephen

6 comments:

David Rubin said...

Well said, Stephen. It was a pleasure covering the draft with you this year- looking forward to it again next season, with Mack back, too!

I agree that, as a whole, the draft was impressive. The Mets are one of the 3 teams that drafted the most players in Baseball America's Top 500 of any team drafting, and the needs of the organization (SS & Catching depth, pitching depth) were certainly addressed, and one would think, well-addressed. They already signed Nido, Cecchini, Taylor, Whalen, Sewald and Flexen, and Nido, Sewald and Flexen were considered to be hard to sign. They won't be able to sign about 8 or so, from what I hear, including White and Distefano.
Overall, a well-planned draft, and we'd expect this from Depo, Sandy, JP & company!!

Anonymous said...

Hey Stephen quick question, i've been hearing a lot about the other catcher the Mets got with the 890 pick, Austin Barr, on one site i heard in a couple of years when he's draft eligible again he'll be easily the best catcher. You know anything about him? Is he gonna be an impossible sign or do you think the Mets are gonna have enough to get him?

Mack Ade said...

Nice coverage David, Steve

David Rubin said...

"Anon"- I have been particularly excited about Barr, as he potentially could be the most "toolsy" of all the catchers the team drafted. I hear that he WILL sign with the team, and we'll post as soon as we hear for sure!

Stephen Guilbert said...

David...? I have heard that there isn't a chance in hell he signs. Anon, yes, Barr could be the next big college catcher if he produces and improves in his three years in college. All of the skills for an above-average catcher are there and the Mets taking him where they did was due diligence and a low-risk, high reward selection there.

David if you're right that is absolutely HUGE but I just do not think Austin Barr had any intention of signing unless he were taken early in the draft (like first 50 picks early).

David Rubin said...

Stephen- I posted this on your signing post as well- I have heard that Barr is not out of the question- IF the Mets offer a decent amount of $$ and depending upon WHERE they would place him, there is still a chance he signs and gives up his scholarship to Stanford. I've got a friend who is in tune with this situation (can't say why in this comment) and says not to count out signing him just yet...although it was less certain from when I posted this 90 min ago then it is now, after talking to my friend again...so fingers remain crossed!!