TJ Rivera vs. Jeff
Keppinger – Tom Brennan
TJ Rivera – seemingly blocked in the minors, is he another Jeff Keppinger?
Jeff Keppinger
was a guy who, when he was in the minors back in the early 2000’s, caught my
attention. I wondered when he'd get promoted
to the Mets and show what he could do. My thinking was, even though he lacked
power, what was not to like about a guy who hit well over .300 and hardly ever
struck out.
Unfortunately for
Jeff, when he reached the high minors, the Mets had All Stars in David Wright
and Jose Reyes locking up 2 spots in the infield and playing almost every day.
Guys like Kaz Matsui and Miguel Cairo got a lot of second base ABs in 2004 and
2005, blocking Jeff.
Jeff did in fact
make the majors with the Mets in 2004 for a short while at age 24, played in 33
games, and did fine (.284/.317/.379 in about 125 plate appearances, and only
fanned 7 times)...but did not crack the majors in 2005, got traded, and had
only 60 at bats with the KC Royals in 2006.
He finally
cracked the door open a bit more in 2007 with Cincy, hitting a remarkable .332
in 241 at bats, while striking out a mere 12 times. Not a typo. Twelve
times. He finally had arrived,
spending most of his remaining career in the majors.
So
how did Jeff’s minor league stats compare to TJ’s?
Jeff's minor
league #s were .321, 2,292 at bats, 121 doubles, 14 triples, 26 homers, 267
RBIs, 202 walks, just 145 Ks, 27 of 45 SBs.
Numbers
remarkably similar to TJ Rivera's - check out the following:
TJ 's minor
league #s are: .318, 2,010 at bats, 118 doubles, 6 triples, 24 homers, 259
RBIs, 128 walks, 278 Ks, 24 of 35 steals.
Jeff struck out
less and walked more, but Rivera showed slightly higher extra base hit and RBI
rates, while also striking out at quite a low rate. Defensively, an apparent
slight edge to Keppinger, but not significant.
My
conclusions:
As Sandy Alderson
has said, minor league performance does not necessarily correlate to major
league success. So we won't know how well TJ will do in the majors until he
gets here. Muno, Campbell, and Satin are
recent guys who showed minors promise but had little major league success. Hard to know.
TJ Rivera almost
undoubtedly will get his major league opportunity somewhere, remarkable for an
undrafted player. He has just hit too
well to not get there.
If he cannot
match Keppinger's major league performance, one would not expect he'd flop if
given opportunities similar to Keppinger. I'd expect success. To what extent,
up to TJ.
TJ has had the
misfortune of being in this organization at the same time as Murphy, Wright,
Flores, Tejada, Reynolds, Herrera, Muno, Cecchini, Mazzilli, McNeil, Rosario,
Guillorme and others. That is quite a list, and daunting competition, for TJ in
the Mets organization.
It does nothing
to diminish his frankly outstanding production in his minor league career to
date. However, Herrera and Cecchini (definitely) and Rosario and Guillorme (more
than likely) would rank ahead of TJ because of their youth and anticipated room
for improvement and perceived higher ceilings.
So I would
envision TJ going to another organization and becoming a successful major
league utility player. How long he stays there is up to him. Keppinger showed a
modest increase in homers in the bigs. In my opinion, a similar modest boost in
TJ's long ball totals would benefit his value in that regard.
Good luck, Mr.
Rivera. You’ve exceeded expectations, and I wish you well.
7 comments:
I am surprised no TJ Rivera fans have responded. They must all be out shopping at TJ Maxx.
Strange to see minor leaguers like this who hit .300 at every level but get little respect.
Perhaps Mets just see him as another Campbell/Satin/Lutz
Hey Ernest. I will admit first off there is more to a player than his batting average.
That said, Campbell underperformed TJ in his career until his 2014 and 2015 time in the minors. And both Satin and Lutz (who was again injured this year) struck out a whole lot more in the minors than TJ...about twice as often. Whether he is better than Campbell remains to be seen, but I'd put him ahead of Satin and Lutz.
The player he comps best with is Keppinger, in my opinion,and TJ could do far worse than be compared with him.
Rivera fan here.
Great article. loving the comparsions. kid has big league potential. can only hope if the mets dont see the need for him that he will be traded or picked up in rule 5 this year and not just used as a mets minor league filler. he has made all of his home town fans proud. keep pushing tj your almost there.
I was remiss to not add that TJ was .325/.364/.449 in 110 games in 2015 at AA and AAA in 2015, so he was above his career norm in two of those categories in 2015, and right at his norm in the other (OBP). Too bad he did not play 140 games to show us a full season's stats.
Keppinger...Marco Scutaro...... I believe they had more SS Bona Fides, but they're great comparisons for a career that includes Grinding it POur and WAITING for a chance.
I don't recall ever seeing Rivera, but I probably did down in Binghamton.
I wonder about the glove.
Most folks who report on the minors in the Metsblogosphere are just looking at box scores, there's very little feel for the real player.Defensive evaluations tend to be guesswork or non-existent.
When you look at Satin, Lutz, and Campbell, these are three guys who simply cannot field. Three guys who are outright liabilities with no position. They were never credible major leaguers. Muno is another guy with a lousy glove. That's a kiss of death.
I don't know if that's Rivera's deal or not.
In basketball terms, there are guys who a tweeners. Too short to be power forwards, too slow to play the perimeter. They compile good stats -- and are good players -- until they reach the NBA and suddenly it's a dead end. I wonder if River is another "in between" type player. Not enough pop for a corner, not enough speed to make up for the lack of power, not enough glove. If he can't play SS, it has to be 2B. Seems like the Mets already have Murphy, Flores, Herrera, Johnson, Mazzili, etc.
It's a brutal game. Very hard to rise to the tippy top. That said, I remember all the Keppinger debates on the old message boards from long ago. He could always hit and he carved out for himself a very nice career.
I feel 99% certain that Rivera would pass through waivers without a single team picking him up.
James Preller
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