WHO MIGHT STEP TO THE FORE NOW THAT SO MANY PITCHING PROSPECTS ARE GONE? - Tom Brennan
Man, the Mets had a lot of starting pitching prospects last
year. How about a recapof some movement of guys in 2015?
Four promos to
Queens:
·
Thor called up and in the rotation.
·
Matz called up, hurt, but about to join the
September rotation.
·
Verrett claimed off 40 man, returned to the Mets,
on the 25 man roster.
·
Robles promoted to the pen after a late season
2014 switch to the pen in the minors.
Eight starters traded: Michael Fulmer, Luis Cessa, Casey
Meisner, John Gant, Rob Whelan, Matt Koch, Miller Diaz, Brad Wieck.
That is 12 guys – and I’d not be surprised if I forgot
someone.
In any organization, churn 12 guys out and the cupboard is
bare. Stripped. Vaporized.
But not the Mets :
several quality starters appear to remain – let me list them:
1) Seth Lugo – the hard
throwing righty (pictured above) is now in AAA, having a very solid year, and eye-catching are 20
Ks in 12 innings in his last 2 starts. The 34th
round from 2011, soon to turn 26, has jumped up the list this year in a big way. See him in Queens next year? Very possibly.
2)
Martires
Arias – most fans would say “who?”
Who could blame them after his lackluster first 5 years in the
organization? Two years in the DSL, 3
years in stateside rookie ball showing nothing statistically. You'd look and ask: why is he still here? But tall guys (he is 6’7” or 6’11”, not sure)
can develop later – and he’s had a tremendous 2014 and 2015 in Kingsport, Brooklyn,
Savannah, and briefly in St Lucie: 14-5, 1.90, 175 innings, 175 Ks. Still walks
a few too many, but big strides there for the big man. An article early this
summer published by MILB.com quoted his pitching coach (Valdez) as follows: "His fastball
is in the low- to mid-90s at times and he gets some good runs and sink to it. Anybody
with that kind of stuff is certainly capable of making progress. He has to
continue to work on his fastball command and throwing to both sides of the
plate and continue to get a better feel for the changeup, because it's the best
it's ever been this season." I
think Arias is added to the 40 man roster and shows up in Queens in 2017 if he
is not traded.
3)
Chris Flexen – pitched great
after being a 14th round selection out of high school in 2012. Now 21, he endured Tommy John surgery last
season, and has come back strong, with a 3-2 record, 2.27, 41 Ks in 43 innings
this year. Reputed low 90s fastball with a solid curve.. Another guy who I’d suspect could be ready for
Queens some time in 2017.
4)
Rob Gsellman – just 22, the
tall righty (13th round 2011 out of HS) had a fine year in Savannah
in 2014 (10-6, 2.56 in 20 starts), then 13-6, 2.63 in 22 starts so far this
year in St Lucie and Binghamton. My only
concern with Rob is his relatively low strikeout rate (82 in 133 innings this
year) but his 1.07 WHIP this year shows he is truly getting the job done.
5)
Marcos Molina – still 20, after
a remarkable year in Brooklyn in 2014, where he was the league’s best starter,
he developed a sore elbow in 2015 and missed 12 weeks. He pitched well in 3 outings in August, but
is back on the DL. Time will tell if
this is temporary or if he will undergo the knife – but assuming a healthy
return, he is a potential future rotation guy in Queens.
6)
Gabe Ynoa – he has
stalled in AA, but is still young and throws reasonably hard. Low K and walk rates. I think he figures it out in 2016, & eventually
becomes a major league back end rotation guy or a 7th inning guy.
Other guys just a notch below are Ricky Knapp and Corey Oswalt, both with fine 2015 records but
allowing a high level of hits. Logan
Taylor has shown some promise this year too.
Some guys in rookie ball have had some outstanding games,
which to me shows a potential for breakout talent. We’ll see who emerges from
that pack in 2016.
All in all, a drop in the quantity and quality of starting
pitching prospects – but the cupboard is not bare.
And the above does not consider Mets’ relief prospects, of
which there are quite a few goodies.
So don’t have sleepless nights – the state of arms in the
minors is good.
12 comments:
Let's not forget Luis Mateo. Not sure of his Rule 5 status, but he has allowed only 11 hits in 22 innings, with 22 Ks in relief, so he seems healthy again.
There is also the couple of legit prep arms we got in the draft: Sixto Torres and the other young LHP - can't recall their names - who are performing fairly well in the GCL
And, this is on top of still have six quality MLB starters:
Harvey, deGrom, Thor, Matz, Niese, Monterro (if healthy)
And Verrett looking like a legitimate swingman / depth starter
Nice problem to have!
Any potential hot shot relievers Tom?
IMO, other than possibly a healthy Fulmer, the Mets were depleted of front end start prospects even before all the trading was done this year.
The Mets got everyone to Queens that was supposed to someday get there and shine.
Health will now be the issue for the next three years.
Nice job! I also think this shows that Sandy is a shrewd GM. We have a lot of young talent at the Major League level, so there won't be much room in the near future. So, as painful as it seems at times, the purge was necessary on a few levels;
1. Maximized assets that we didn't have room for (in the short term), in exchange for talented players that will help with the pennant drive this year.
2. Cleared space in the upper levels, so that our next wave of talent (the group you just profiled) can advance at the proper rate and continue to develop. They will be knocking on the door when our current crop of pitchers start to age or get too expensive.
3. Also reduced the logjam and associated problems with the 40 man roster, making the Rule V draft protections easier.
I know he catches a lot of heat, but Sandy truly has our present and long term plans in good shape.
Mike
Sandy got real value in trades and avoided the 40 man. Grat work.
@ Bob: Hot shot relievers? No Familias in the group, but I like Sewald and Morris of AA a lot, Secrest of HI A. Smoker showed some promise too, and Luis Mateo could be a real pen gem. Intrigued by Palsha and Conlon too.
@ Mike - good points, sir.
@ Lew: Max Wotell is the other really young guy to watch
Palsha and Conlon in Cyclone pen have allowed 1 stinking run in 40 innings.
@ Bob: one last pen hopeful, who had several bad games, but who struck out 11 and allowed just 1 hit in 5 innings: Chris Montgomery
Tom - Thanks.
Recall - Familia was a so-so starter in the minors - not a hot shot reliever.
So, one of the guys on this list could be the next Familia
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