Ernest Dove - Will The Mets be Finding Nimmo in their 2015 Outfield, Come 2015?


  As we all know, over the years, the Mets, and their front office, have continued to preach patience, when it comes to its prospects. The organization has seemed to have a stable and consistent philosophy, at least over the last 5 years.  It's a philosophy which appears to have its prospects fully succeed at each level, in both progress/development and by pure numbers, prior to each promotion. 
  This same organization also has recent history of promoting players, no matter how dominant they are to start a year at a certain level, only AFTER that leagues all star game.  And, through this philosophy, along with the theories that MONEY also plays a key role in prospect advancement to the main club, we have seen prospects like Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores all have to excel, maybe for longer then others may have wished, before being given the opportunity to show what they have at the major league level.
  I bring up this philosophy, and topic, because something immediately changed, at least in regards to one player.  During this the month, the Mets (at least for us fans, writers and the like) were shocked to see the promotion of second baseman Dilson Herrera.  Herrera started the season at A ball, and only had a handful of games/at bats at the AA level prior to the promotion.  Yes, technically, the Mets had a need for a second baseman after their incumbent, and current all start 2B Daniel Murphy headed to the DL.  And yes, due to the things like super two, arbitration, rule 5 and 'control' type stuff, players like Matt Reynolds apparently were not an option for promotion to the big club to take Murphy's place.  However, there was still also technically an obvious alternative, which would have been simply insert Wilmer back to second base, and have Tejada finish this non playoff season out. But, in the case, and maybe FINALLY, the Mets made the bold decision to get a look at the future, a little earlier than usual.
  So far, so good/ok/decent. In the end, ultimately, and at first glance, I think we can all already say that Dilson Herrera is capable of remaining at this top level, no matter his age or minor league level experience.  And there is a chance that he finds himself on the 2015 25 man roster.
  So now, we come to the kid pictured at the top of my post.  One Brandon Nimmo.  The kid who, himself, became part of the new philosophy to be begin with (even if he didn't know it).  Nimmo, after some years of drafting college, college, college, and arms, arms, arms, became what might be becoming a new wave of Mets prospects and players.
  Yes, Most of us know the story of Nimmo not even getting to play high school baseball. And yes, many can argue for days about Sandy Alderson and Co., and their confidence/cockiness/arrogance in rolling the dice on high school kids with high ceilings, rather then simply draft college arms who throw 95+ or college hitters in their 20s.  But Brandon Nimmo continues to show, and naturally have, certain instincts that this organization wants. He has a sweet swing. He walks......a lot..... has some pop, and seems to find himself on the base paths.....a lot...
  Nimmo weathered the storm in the lower minors, getting used to 'the grind' of professional baseball.  Then, not only did Nimmo make it through the hitter Unfriendly confines of Low A ball in Savannah, but he also became part of their championship winning team.
  So, by all accounts, based on performance, an eye for good pitches, and a good OBP, he earned his promotion to High A St. Lucie to start 2014.  And, as he did in previous levels, Nimmo made the adjustments, started to show more pop while out of Savannah, and earned his...... yes..... post all star game promotion to AA ball.
  As in his previous promotions, Nimmo did not come out on fire.  However, since making it Binghamton, he has continued to show his power.  And, after apparently starting to fade towards the end of the year, low and behold he finds himself playing even more baseball, in the leagues playoffs.  And, low and behold, over the past 6 games, as of the morning of 9/11/14, he has 9 hits in his last 25 at bats. He remains at the top of the batting order, for a minor league team that is one game away from winning the league championship, which would technically give Nimmo back to back championships.
  So, I guess I was just wondering. What happens, if , the soon to be 22 year old (by start of spring 2015), shows a continued good eye at the plate, along with power, some speed, and an overall knack for getting on base come 2015? 
  I assume I'm probably pushing it to try and speculate that Nimmo can have chance of braking camp with the main ball club right from spring.  Because, again, the philosophy of the organization has been pretty consistent.  However, this is the same organization that saw a kid go on a absolute tear, and gave him a shot. So, with that being said, could the Mets possibly use this new/atypical approach with Brandon, especially he shows up in Vegas, come April 2015, and shows even more power in that hitter friendly environment (Nimmo actually has hit more homers and doubles in AA ball then he did in A ball this year). And, if so, the bigger question is this.  Based on possible momentum, numbers, need or what have you, could the organization roll the dice on this kid once again, and hand him a major league uniform PRIOR to next years AAA ball all start break (yes, I'm humbly assuming the organization will at least let this kid start in Vegas next year and not return to Bingo).
  Depending on the way the season goes, the Mets, and their fans, may have a lot more on their minds then whether or not another highly regarded prospect deserves a starting role on the active roster. However, I for one will remain curious about finding Nimmo, in my teams starting outfield, wearing the blue and orange, at some point in 2015, even despite his age, background and experience in this sport. Because, as Dilson Herrera has just shown, age and experience can have little effect on trumping talent, no matter the level.


Mack Ade said...

Nimmo has one thing going for him...

the Mets do not want to spend big money for a long term left fielder...

I expect Nimmo will start the 2015 season in Las Vegas and his bat will suit that city just fine...

I also thin the Mets are learning from the promotions of Herrera and Alvarez. They really don't need to keep talented players on a slow track.

My guess is someone will be signed for a one-year deal a la Chris Young and Nimmo will step in after the all-star break if that person isn't working out

Thomas Brennan said...

Nimmo has accelerated in 2014, but he did not dominate AA, and there is Super 2 in 2015, so we'll probably see him in Citi around the All Star break 2015, as Mack says. I think he'll be major-league ready around then too.

Chris Young will remain a Yankee and be ahead in the MVP voting projections about that time, BTW. Yanks are designing a new monument for him as we speak.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Remember, Chris Young had his 2 hot spells here, he was just atrocious in between. Remember how he responded when he was just inches from being released earlier in the year? He's fighting for his career, so I would expect him to be motivated, plus Citi is just a little too deep for his average home run pop. Yankee Stadium is shallow right in his power alley. He'll fall on his face, probably right after he signs his next contract.

Ernest Dove said...

I assume the next steps are for Puello, Den dekker/Kirk and wilmer Flores to all head over to the Bronx and be part of there next multiple championship run.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Nimmo may stay in AAA most of the year if DD plays like he is now. But, if Matt slacks off, or has a bad spring, we may see him a lot sooner than anyone thinks. Sandy says he wants to add some HR power, but that may very well come from moving the fences in. It's cheaper than signing another "low-cost, high ceiling" reject.

Christopher Soto said...

Cuddyer for 2015 LF
Nimmo for 2016 LF

I'm starting the campaign now.

Christopher Soto said...

In regards to Cuddyer's contract situation.....

Last off-season, there was only 1 free agent case that is comparable to Cuddyer's, Mike Morse.

Morse was coming off an injury riddled year where he severely underperformed at age 31. He still managed to get 88 games in though.

Cuddyer is 35 and will probably finished with only 50 games played though he has performed well in those games.

Morse was able to get a major league contract for 1 yr/$6M in an effort to build his value back to sign a multi-year deal in 2014. This was a 750k salary reduction.

Cuddyer will not be in the same situation as this will probably be his last contract so he'll probably require a 2 year commitment. In exchange for the 2nd year Cuddyer will have to sacrifice AAV salary.

If we adjust for inflation....a reasonable demand for Cuddyer would be the 2yr/$14M range or $7M per season.

Mack Ade said...

Forget Chris Young

Mack Ade said...

Chris -

That's not a bad plan

Steve from Norfolk said...

I like Cuddyer for a couple of reasons, not the least of which is He may remove some pressure from DW, not just on the field, but off of it. He was a couple of years ahead of Wright as a teenager, but played on a lot of the same teams. I think Wright might listen to him about not playing so long when he's injured. Also, he fills every hole we have. He could play in LF, 1B, and 3B. He'll give us 15-20 extra HR's.And, like Chris said, he won't eat us up on salary. If we can get him on a 2 year deal, Sandy should jump on it.

Anonymous said...

Agree Cuddyer is the perfect veteran presence, Sandy talks about. And is available at a decent price which Wilpon can afford. Would still like to see the Mets play the waiting game? Let other teams come to them and let Sandy do his thing?

Anthony said...

I do not think the Wilpons are going to spend any money this offseason and, in this connection, think that MDD / Niewenhuis / Campbell will be holding LF down until Nimmo or Conforto assumes the position in 2015 or early 2016.

Admittedly, only Nimmo has a chance to assume that role in early- to mid-2015 as Conforto is still too far away. But I think the Mets will aggressively promote Conforto with the idea that he or Nimmo is manning LF in the very near future.

Mack Ade said...

The Mets are not going to bench Granderson, so he will be your RF through the 2017 season.

I agree that Conforto will be fast paced... start off oD in St. Lucie, Binghamton at the all-star break, a probable August promotion to Savannah, and even a chance for a September call-up a la Dilson Herrera.

bob gregory said...

Do we really want Cuddyer for his age 36 & 37 years?
Especially after his injury history?
And then use 1/12 of the payroll for It (for 2 years)?

If payroll has to stay what it is better decisions have to be made than that.
If payroll increased to $100million then such a chance can be made

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

You're missing the point.

We're looking for an outfielder for ONE year.

bob gregory said...

Chris reasoned Cuddyer would require 2yr/ $14 million.
even for 1 yr..... I would rather not get burnt by age/injury for him at any significant portion of the payroll.

Anthony said...

Mack, certainly I did not say that Nimmo or Conforto would be in RF - we can agree that Granderson will be there.

I said I anticipate a few things:

(1) that the Mets will spend almost no money this offseason;

(2) Conforto would be fast-tracked;

(3) some combination of MDD, Campbell, etc. will hold down the LF fort until Nimmo or Conforto take over the position (i.e., there is no big-time acquisition coming).

Granderson will man RF for the foreseeeable future but I don't anticipate, as you write, that he will be the starter through the end of 2017. I believe the Mets signed him to that deal well aware that in the best-case scenario he will perform well for the first three years and will be a pinch-hitter or released by year four. Many clubs operate under such assumptions in signing players to long-term deals: that is, they fully expect the players to be fringe ML players or even washed-up prior to the end of the contract (see Cano, Pujols, etc.) but they think the overall deal still makes sense.

In this connection, I don't think Alderson & Co. think for a second that Granderson will be the starting RF through the end of 2017. They are hoping he rebounds in 2015 and has a decent year in 2016 and then he will relegated to the end of the bench or even released.

Mack's Mets © 2012