Morning Report – September 14 – Mets Catching, Rusney Castillo, Dominic Smith, Top 10 Draft, Milwaukee Brewers,


Christopher asks -

            A good Sunday morning question… who would you rather have:
            (162 Game Averages)

Matt Weiters- .257 AVG, 22 HR, 82 RBI, .743 OPS

            Johnathan Lucroy- .284 AVG, 13 HR, 79 RBI, .759 OPS

Weiters happens to be Travis d'Arnaud's ceiling. A .260 AVG, 25 HR, 85+ RBI guy

Lucroy happens to be Kevin Plawecki's ceiling. A .290 AVG, 15 HR, 70+ RBI guy who also hits 40+ doubles.

It's good to be Sandy Alderson right now cause 1 of these guys is going to get us a franchise SS. Its just a matter of who?

Mack – I’m always go with the hand I have rather than the one I’m hoping on drawing. D’Arnaud has already proven… at least, to me… that he can catcher good enough to stay in the majors, and he has a bat capable of hitting over 25 home runs.

This game just doesn’t have enough hitters like this anymore.

There are only four National League hitters that currently have 25 home runs or more. That’s pathetic.

The Mets are not going to spend the kind of money needed to get another home run hitter, and Plawecki, for all he is, does not project out to be a 20+ home run hitter in this game. The Mets need to keep d’Arnaud in their lineup to firm up a viable 3-4-5-6 in their lineup.

But that’s just me…

Dan Farnsworth on Rusney Castillo -

Adding up my extremely accurate value projections, we get about a 2 WAR player with the potential for another win or two coming from his bat in a good year. To bet on the over offensively is to believe he is athletic enough to make hard contact at a near elite rate despite some swing deficiencies, which I cannot refute as a possibility. I would also not be surprised if there was another half win on the defensive side. Considering his contract calls for him to be paid market-price for this value, and there are some encouraging reasons to believe it is a modest estimate, the Sox appear to have done well making a solid upside play with a high floor.


Well, it’s the time of the year that the organizational reports are compiled by all the bloggers in baseball. The first on the Mets seem to be from MLB Prospect Watch 
(http://www.mlbprospectwatch.com/mlb_prospect_watch/2014/09/organization-recap-new-york-mets.html) which did not give an overall rating, but did break things down into certain categories. 

Here’s one of them:

Take a Step Back: Dominic Smith, 1B:  It's not fair to get too tough on Smith, who hit .277 with a .341 on-base percentage as a 19-year-old, and one of the youngest position players, in the South Atlantic League. He also played all of his home games in Savannah, a park known to zap power. That said, one home run all season from a first base prospect, and one that projects to have above-average power, is disheartening. Smith's tools are all still intact, so there's no reason that he can't take steps forward, though the Florida State League won't be much more forgiving in terms of power. Reports have Smith sacrificing some power for the sake of being a better all-around hitter, and he demonstrates plus power in batting practice, but he'll need to show more of it in games if he wants to be a first baseman in the major leagues.

A little rough on a kid playing ball this high for his lack of age. I don’t frankly worry about him because there’s no rush here. Lucas Duda is doing just fine and I’d rather let Smith spend three more years in the minor league system, learning and growing

Kiley McDaniel’s early Top 10 list for the 2015 Draft –

            Brendan Rodgers, SS, (HS)
Brady Aiken, LHP, (JC)
Mike Matuella, RHP, Duke
Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt
Phil Bickford, RHP, (JC)
Kolby Allard, LHP (HS)
Darby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
Daz Cameron, OF, (HS)
Justin Hooper, LHP, (HS)
Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville                                                          

We continue to look at the teams in the NL Central as possible off-season trade partners for the Mets needs.

We move on to the Milwaukee Brewers.

According to Cot[i], the Brewers have combined 2014 salaries of $103,397,967.

Outfield wise, all-star Ryan Braun ($13mil/2015, $20mil/2016-2018, $19mil/2019-2020) leads the way in right field. Ex-Mets and fellow all-star Carlos Gomez ($8mil/2015, $9mil/2015) plays center. Pre-arbitration, Khris Davis (464-AB, .254) was the primary left fielder.

The 4th outfielder is Geraldo Parra (480-AB, .265, 8-HR, 38-RBI), who is going into his arbitration-4 year with a $4.85mil salary. The 5th outfielder is pre-ARB Elian Herrera (130-AB, .277).

The top outfield prospects, Tyrone Taylor and Victor Roach, played A+ in 2014 and project as two years away

At short, pre-ARB Jean Segura (461-AB, .234) is backed up by Herrera. In addition, Hector Gomez (AAA: .282, 15-HR, 49-RBI) has been called up this month and will most probably compete with Segura next year in spring training.

Their #2 prospect is SS Orlando Arcia, but he’s two years away.

Mack Observation – Parra is an interesting consideration for the Mets outfield, but the arbitration process alone will probably raise his 2015 salary to the $6mil+ range. Do you really want another one-year Chris Young deal?

Me? No one jumps out at me here. I’d pass and move on to the next team.


Thomas Brennan said...

Morning Mack
Only 4 NL guys with 25+ homers? Move the fences in, so it can be 7 or 8 next year!
I make my case for that in an article coming out on Macks Mets in the next day or two (forgot which, at least I know it will be in Sept, and this is 2014, right)?

I guess Dario Alvarez is finding out the large gap between major league and s Atlantic hitters.

Thomas Brennan said...

My fences article is Monday at noon - read it and get on the bandwagon if you will.

John Zozo said...

Jean segura could be a nice buy low option? I don't think his defense is that great but he has some wheels.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

We spend so much time here wishing we had better hitters and yet there really aren't that many old fashioned sluggers left in this game.

Duda may turn out to be one.

Bill Metsiac said...

I'd rather have a 280+/.350 guy with 15 HRs and a bunch of doubles than one with 25 HRs and a sub- .250/.300 with a ton more Ks.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Just a comment on today's lineup.

I see Young is starting again today. Is Nieuwenhuis hurt, or is TC having another relapse of his EYJ man-crush?

Mack Ade said...

Steve -

No, no, EYJ has been hot and, why not. He's not going to be on this team next year anyway

Reese Kaplan said...

@Steve To be fair to Terry, it may well be they want to make a final evaluation on Eric Young, Jr. who could likely be non-tendered as an over $2 million player next season. Nieuwenhuis is still minimum wage though his spot on the 40-man roster is not guaranteed either.

Thomas Brennan said...

I feel bad for den Dekker. Clearly the Mets were committed to seeing what he could do, but then a HBP and he has not been able to grip the bat...hence, EY Jr.

I look for Duda to go for 35 next year, 40+ if fences come in.

Robb said...

segura would be a nice get, for sure. id be very interested to see what the cost is on him. If its Gee and murhpy Id do it in a sec

Reese Kaplan said...

Segura would be a good addition to any team (except, perhaps, the Rockies) but the Mets' more pressing need is a slugging corner outfielder. If they can find one who provides speed as well, so much the better. I'd rather preserve our trade chips for a Ryan Braun type (not that Milwaukee would trade him now if they didn't hot off his steroid admissions).

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