How will Noah Syndergaard do? His surface stats in AAA this year are ugly: 4.6ERA and 1.48WHIP, but let’s not forget the PCL effect. Below, I outlined his skills (FIP & K/BB) and “luck” (LOB% & BABIP) stats relative to Wheeler’s, deGrom’s and Harvey’s: (see link) - Syndergaard was more commanding than any of them from a K-rate and K/BB perspective, but was clearly affected the most by the environment according to his luck and surface stats. He’s got a Fastball-Curve combo with what should be a better Changeup than Wheeler’s, but he will also pitch to contact at times for some ground-ball induction with a 2-seamer/Sinker. He also has a cutter/slider and if it all comes together, with thought and command, as ballsy as this might sound, he could be the Mets’ closest thing to Corey Kluber. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2015-new-york-mets-commanding-attention/
Mack - This was a very interesting story on Fangraphs, which was complimentary to the future of Mets pitching, in general, and Thor, in particular. God, do I hate the PCL Everybody keeps writing that Syndergaard is suck a great pitcher and all I see is his ERA and WHIP.
I've said this a number of times. My assumption is Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Zack Wheeler are safe. I'd also like to assume that Syndergaard, Rafael Montero and Steven Matz are the future of this team, but I can't guarantee that.
My assumption is Sandy Alderson will be patient and wait until his phone rings with someone that wants to talk about any combination of Dillon Gee, Jonathan Niese, or Bartolo Colon.
What happens if no one calls?
Well, someone will. Gee, Niese, and Colon are proven winners and have a value. It may not be the value that Alderson wants, but he will be able to turn the three of these guys into, at least 4-5 prime prospects.
But, if the season starts and the phone still hasn't rang, you return Niese and Gee to the rotation, send Colon and Montero to the pen, and stack up Syndergaard and Matz in Vegas until you get this good problem solved.
You want to come out of this with Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Matz intact.
Mack - this is the guy that's probably going to generate the most attention in the off-season. He also would probably be able to solve either your shortstop or left field problem in one phone call,
I want to point one thing out here that I haven't done so in the past.
When the Mets drafted deGrom his top velo on his fastball was 94. He went under for Tommy John Surgery and no one was expecting the end result to be that his velo would rise to the 95-97 range.
He shocked the hell out of the entire Savannah staff when he arrived there and he was the first one to be promoted to St. Lucie.
Does this mean that Matt Harvey could return this spring with a higher velo than he had when he went down with his injury. That's a scary thought.