9/27/14

Morning Report – September 27 – Jacob deGrom, Weinberg-Chat, Matt Reynolds, Cleveland Indians

15 comments


Mike Petriello on the Rookie Of The Year -

If it sounds like I’m talking myself into Jacob deGrom, I think I am. Hamilton’s season was a success in many ways, but I don’t know that we’re walking away from it any more convinced that he’s the answer the Reds need. The biggest strike against deGrom — maybe the only one, really — is that he didn’t pitch as much as you would have liked in the bigs this year. But really, it’s not like he was mediocre for a while and then had a great finish. In his debut, he held the Yankees to one run over seven innings. He held the Pirates scoreless over 6.2 innings in his third start. In his fourth, he struck out 11 hitters. Only three times all year did he allow more than three earned runs.
So really, for me, it comes down to this: If deGrom had made three more starts that weren’t total disasters, are we even talking about this? I’m not sure that we are. Hamilton had his moments. deGrom, despite being around less, had more. What stopped Hamilton from being more valuable was his own performance; what stopped deGrom was opportunities given, plus he had the likely boost of finishing well while Hamilton did not. deGrom is the choice for the Rookie of the Year on these pages, and I think, in a tight vote, the actual voters will agree. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/national-league-rookie-of-the-year-billy-hamilton-reds-jacob-degrom-mets/



Weinberg-Chat -

Comment From Guest - Mets 2015 Win Total? Harvey 2015 WAR? DeGrom 2015 WAR? Wheeler 2015 WAR?

            Neil Weinberg: 84, 4, 3, 3.

Comment From Neel - Which team will improve the most next year? Not talking like the Rays who are good and unlucky, but which team will actually have a better team?

            Neil Weinberg: Assume the Rangers are out then. Cubs. Mets, maybe?
Mack - This might be the most positive analysis of the 2015 Mets that I have seen come out from all the ‘experts’ over at Fangraphs. Would an 84-78 record get them into the playoffs? Well, it wouldn’t have this year.


Matt Reynolds, SS (No. 20) - For the Mets, no position on the diamond remains more unsettled than shortstop, where Alderson has more than a few options for 2015. The GM could stick with Flores, gambling on the 23-year-old's high-upside bat. He could spring for one of the top free agents available, choosing from a group that includes J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie and Asdrubal Cabrera. He could even make a trade.

Or he could look to Reynolds, who rocketed up prospect charts by batting .343 with a .405 on-base percentage in 126 games split between Binghamton and Las Vegas.
Yet despite his success, Reynolds insists he paid little attention to what Flores, Ruben Tejada and the organization's other shortstops spent this summer doing.

"Honestly, no," Reynolds said when asked if he kept close tabs on the situation. "I just worry about myself and the team that I'm on. When that time comes and I get called up, I'll start worrying about that team. But during the season, I wasn't looking ahead or behind. I was just focused on the present." http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/95849306/mets-farmhands-take-right-mindset-into-2015

Mack – Man, these guys have really learned how to not answer a question. Are we actually supposed to think that a player like Reynolds doesn’t jump online like the rest of us to find out what our ‘competition’ out there is doing?
The current gaggle of scouts that follow the Mets have always tagged Reynolds as a future utility ballplayer. This is the same thing they said about Juan Lagares.

I worry for Reynolds. I happen to think that Wilmer Flores will be the future Mets SS due to the fact he will continue to improve his production and he is team controlled. I also think that the Mets will go at least one more year with Ruben Tejada, this time as a utility SS/2B infielder in 2015.

This leaves Reynolds to only return to Vegas for another year and, frankly, it’s going to be hard for him to improve on the kind of stats he’s already put up there. One good thing for him… it doesn’t look like Gavin Cecchini will be pushing him next year.
We stay in the AL-Central by checking out the Cleveland Indians for a possible 2015 shortstop or left fielder.

According to Cot[i], the 2014 Indians payroll is $84,445,900.

The Indians seem to like to sign up their key players to team options.

2B Jason Kipnis is signed through a team option in 2020, LF Michael Brantley is signed through a team option in 2018, DH-1B Carlos Santana is signed through a team option in 2017, 1B Nick Swisher has a team option through 2017, CF Michael Bourn also has a team option through 2017, and RF David Murphy has a team option through 2015.

The Indians started this season with Asdrubal Cabrera as their starting shortstop, but he was traded to the Washington Nationals for SS prospect Zach Walters. Team controlled Jose Ramirez moved over from second and is now the starting shortstop.

Prospect wise, 2015 should be the year for SS Francisco Lindor (2014-AAA: 165-AB .273, 5-HR). He’s also a potential Gold Glove candidate. He’s backed up with Erik Gonzalez (AA - .357) who has a 2016 ETA, Outfield wise, there are plenty. There are two that will be ready next season, James Ramsey (AAA- .284) and Tyler Naquin (AA - .313, currently DL). Two more, Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier have 2017 ETAs.

Mack Observation – Cleveland looks like the perfect trade candidate for a left fielder, be it short or long term. They obviously can solve their own future outfield objectives from within their system, but the Mets can help them reach their goals with good, effective pitching.

My approach would be to trade for Murphy and assume his $6mil 2015 contract. It also has a team option in 2016 which, I assume, would come along with the deal and could come in handy if the progress of Brandon Nimmo and/or Michael Conforto becomes delayed.


15 comments:

Anonymous said...

David Murphy? Why not just let dD play? Get a RH bat.

Anthony said...

Daniel Murphy made $5.7 million in 2014 and is eligible for arbitration in 2015, his final year before free agency.

It is inaccurate to say that he has a $6 million contract for next year; if he did, that would increase his trade value because he is actually under team-control but unsigned and the amount he is likely to be awarded in arbitration (or, more likely given the Mets' standard desire to settlement pre-arbitration) is significantly higher: more like $8 to $8.5 million.

Anonymous said...

We're talking David Murphy of the Indians here.

Mack Ade said...

What did I do now? :)

Thomas Brennan said...

I'm with Anon. Den Dekker has my vote after hitting .se0 his last 42 AAA games and then going nearly .300/.400 in his 30 games since with Mets. He has some power, spped and great D. He improves steadily. Solid main platoon guy.

Thomas Brennan said...

Jake is not only ROY, he is Mets' #1 starter next year. Sorry, Harvey.

Reese Kaplan said...

Does one hot year turn Matt Reynolds into a coveted trade chip for another team?

Anthony said...

That was totally my bad Mack.

I read this post hurriedly and I thought you were talking about trading Daniel Murphy but it clearly says trading FOR Murphy meaning David.

My sincere apologies Mack and thanks to Anonymous for pointing out my error.

Mack Ade said...

Anthony -

No, I wasn't pissed... notice the smiley face next to my comment

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

I'm doing a future post just on SS...

I think Reynolds needs to repeat Vegas and prove that 2014 wasn't an anolomy... err... an anolamey... err... an exception.

Charles said...

reynolds was a second round pick. That should mean they thought he was a major league regular at some point. Flores likely will have the position now, but if he starts off slow and Reynolds doesn't, I'd expect a quick swap; especially when you consider that 2015 is make or break in a lot of ways for this team.

Also, I'd expect a Harvey, Niese, deGrom, Wheeler, and Gee rotation going into next season. That's top 5 in baseball. Maybe top 3.

They can't afford to waste any of these cheap years a rotation like that will cost in the future. If you expect a reasonable outcome from these starters moving forward, that 100 million in 5 years to keep those guys together. 100 million. There's no doubt that somebody will be moved from their stud arsenal. And I'm not talking about Niese or Gee.

There's ZERO chance this franchise pays more than one pitcher 20 million a year. Now is the time to win. In 2015, they must field a good team.

Anonymous said...

There is zero chance that all of these pitcgerdwill cost $100 million an arbitration.highest ever award was $10 million to Ryan Howard and Clayton Kershaw was just paid 10 million per year for his final two years of arbitration. Matt Harvey will be the first to arbitration in 2016, but this past fall season will cost him dearly.in 2018, Harvey, DeGrom and Wheeler will earn a combined $30M roughly and Matz and Thor won't even be Arb eligible yet, so this staff will be affordable for the next few years and they will trade off Harvey before he hits FA and they really only need to replace him with a solid #4 or 5, which they have in the low minors to replace. They can keep the bulk of this staff together for more than just a couple of years and move a couple before they bolt. The window is not closing in 2015, it is just opening.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Anonymous - I don't think Charles is just talking about the pitchers payroll. I think he's talking about the total team payroll when our rotation and other rookies hit arbitration. Our present team's payroll would easily hit $100 million by Harvey's Arb 3 year without any other additions. Harvey's Arb 3 will be the Arb 2 year for Wheeler and Lagares, and Arb 1 for DeGrom, Flores, and Den Dekker, with Syndegaard (and possibly Matz and Herrera) hitting Arb 1 the next year

Charles said...

I was just talking rotation and referring to when they become free agents. My point was, that if they stay on their current courses and remain good to great starting pitchers, on the open market, they'll be 20 mill a year pitchers.

The Mets simply won't be able to keep them all. Probably won't keep any. The 5 years was simply saying that the Mets don't have forever to win and should take advantage of this cheap and dominant rotation now before its too late.

This is their window. Right now. When their entire pitching staff is set and cheap. Building a great pitching staff, 1 through 12, is hard. Doing it for under 35 million is near impossible. Just ask the Tigers and Yankees.

Keeping your talent past free agency, especially pitchers, is usually foolish. Now is the time to do whatever it takes to win.

And that DOESNT mean bringing in the fences to save from having to trade a few prospects or spend in free agency.

Anon, Harvey is Harvey. DeGrom seems to be just as good. Wheeler has steadily gotten better and likely will continue that trend. If Noah does the same and Matz as well, we could be looking at the team to beat for the next 5 years. If the Mets can put an offense together to score these guys 4 or 5 runs a game, then this may go down as the biggest fuck up in the history of this franchise.

Anonymous said...

This is why the payroll is being kept artificially low right now, so they can keep this group together for five years and trade off one at a time. This and the Super 2 is what pisses off fans more than anything but in reality it is great (not good) resource management. That is why in addition to being close at the ML level, it is great to see the Farm stocked below and why I am in favor of shedding the Vets for prospects. I believe that if they do minor moves, trade the Vets, graduate Thor Matz and Herrara next year, they can contend for WC next year and go into 2016 with the Dream Staff, a stocked Farm and a $60M payroll. What team would be in a better position to compete for five years or more? Also, TJS hurts a pitcher very badly in all of their Arb years because it depresses the first year, which is used as baseline moving forward. Remember if you trade Harvey in 17-18, you won't need to replace with an ace only solid 3-4 spots with other 4 and plenty of internal inventory to replace. Sandy maybe building a monster here. Of course many things have to break their way, but the system is set up to keep filling vacancies created by FA. like Molina ready to replace Harvey and Smith to replace Duda when they become too expensive to keep and will return plenty if traded a year before FA. they are in a very good place right now and by the way, MDD may not be the ideal corner OF, but his value has hopped this year because there are a lot of teams that would love to have him as a CF, where his offense profiles nicely along with great glove.

Mack's Mets © 2012