Morning Report – September 29 – Buddy Carlyle, Rafael Montero, Daisuke Matsuzaka, WAR, Kansas City Royals


So, what’s going to happen at Mack’s Mets during the off-season?

Well, basically no change at all.

The Morning Report will come out every day at 8am, though it may have some more emphasis on the Winter Leagues and Hot Stove season.

I know Reese Kaplan will have his bi-weekly post (Wednesday and Saturday – 11am) and I anticipate that Ernest Dove will also continue his weekly post on Friday’s at 11am.

Christopher Soto has a wonderful off-season series of special posts in October and Thomas Brennan has a bunch of things already scheduled.

I can’t predict what the other writers will do, but I am sure we will hear from them if they have something to say.

Just join us every morning and become part of the growing community that shoots the Mets shit via comments on the 8am post. We’ll keep the site up-to-date throughout the day if any big news happens.

Mike Vorkunov on Buddy Carlyle -

Carlyle is unsure if he will try to pitch again. He looks at teammates like Jeurys Familia with awe -- though he has an ERA nearly a run lower with a fastball six miles per hour slower. The end has to come sometime. Still, he already preached to young pitchers how difficult it is just to reach the majors. And to stay. Finally, Carlyle has found a way. "Do what you’re supposed to do every day, just be where you’re supposed to be, and do things the right way," he says, reciting his lessons this spring. "It’s a lot easier to stick around. Especially if you need that second, third, or for me, my 15th chance." http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2014/09/mets_buddy_carlyle_nears_end_of_long_winding_career_in_baseball.html

Mack – Boy, was Carlyle a pleasant surprise this season… 1.53-ERA in 26 relief appearances. Now… do you match what offer he will get in the of-season from some other team? Trust me, there is always an offer to match when it comes to players like this. It probably won’t be a two-year deal a la Latroy Hawkins ($2.25mil 2015 team option with Colorado), but it will be one of the decisions Sandy Alderson has to do in the off-season.

Rafael Montero's last 5 G: 3 starts, 19.1 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 10 BB, 21 SO, 0 HR, 1.40 ERA
            Mack – Boy, just what in the hell are the Mets going to do with this guy.

Right now, the Mets have six starters on opening day… Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee.

Additionally, there will be two more ‘coming up’ around the all-star break… Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz.

            And then there’s Montero.

The emergence of deGrom has even taken Montero out of my ‘dream rotation’ projections for Opening Day 2016. This is the primary reason I keep hyping him for the pen. I want my team to have the most talented team controlled pitchers in their system, so the first three guys to go would be the off-injured Niese, the regressing Gee, and the ancient Colon.

This probably makes Montero as your top, young, team controlled, lack of injuries, starter for a future trade. I’m glad the Mets featured him for a few late starts this season. The stats seem to speak for themselves.

Montero is a successful major league pitcher that has to be addressed.

Daisuke Matsuzaka on pitching in 2016 -

“I want to start. But I haven't really put too much thought into whether it's going to be here or there anything. At this point I just want to start."

Mack – I wish him well in obtaining his dreams, but my guess is that will happen only in Japan. The Mets simply don’t have a starting role for him, unless he accepts a job anchoring the Las Vegas rotation and acting as the emergency starter in case someone goes down in Queens… but even that math doesn’t work unless the Mets deal off three other starters. No, thanks D and best of luck in the future

Mets WAR:

1. Juan Lagares, 3.8
2. Lucas Duda, 3.3
3. Jacob deGrom, 3.0
4. Daniel Murphy, 2.6
5. Bartolo Colon, 2.1

41-(t). John Lannan, -0.4
41-(t). Omar Quintanilla, -0.4

41-(t). Scott Rice, -0.4
44. Chris Young, -0.6
45. Gonzalez Germen, -0.7
Baseball Reference
1. Lagares, 5.5
2. Duda, 3.7
3. deGrom, 3.1

4. David Wright, 2.8
5. Murphy, 2.0

40-(t). Juan Centeno, -0.3
40-(t). Josh Satin, -0.3
42-(t). Lannan, -0.4
42-(t). Rice, -0.4

44. Bobby Abreu, -0.6
45. Jose Valverde, -0.8

We stay in the AL-Central for our search of a LF and SS in 2015. This time, it’s the Kansas City Royals.

According to Cot[i], the Royals’ 2014 payroll is $92,185,521.

The Royals don’t seem to like long term contracts. They have only four, none of which are shortstops or outfielders.

The (current) starting outfield is Alex Gordon ($14mil through 2015), Lorenzo Cain (pre-arbitration), and Norichika Aoki ($1.91875mil-2014, FA-2015). The 4th outfielder, Raul Ibanez, is also a free agent at the end of this season.
Alcides Escobar is the starting shortstop and is signed through a team option in 2016 ($3mil/yr).

Prospect wise, SS Raul Mondesi is their top prospect, with an ETA of 2016. Additionally, Orlando Calixte (AA – 11-HR, 37-RBI) could be available via a trade because there doesn’t seem to be any room for him on their future 25-man roster.
Outfield wise, Jorge Bonifacio plays a disappointing year in 2014 at AA (.230). Bubba Starling (ETA-2016) is the future.

Mack Observation – The farm system for the Royals seen very thin and they don’t seem to have a 2015 replacement for either Ibanez or Aoki. I don’t see anyone here to go after. I’d move on.


Thomas Brennan said...

Niese, Gee and Colon need to be moved for the young and talented that are here and on the doorstep.

My thoughts on Montero start with Harvey, then move to deGrom. Matt had a couple of so-so starts in his 2012 break in period, followed by a great (truncated) 2013 after he transitioned in 2012.

deGrom on the other hand did it all this year, so his few early weak starts were mixed into a single season with his great ones.

So too with Montero - all this year - a few bumps, followed by a strong end of season. My guess is his transition is largely over and he will, if in the rotation in 2015, be above the major league average starter.

Saw diComo on the Mets website write that the Mets' 2015 roster won't change much and they won't spend much. Considering where it was published, I guess we should not get our hopes up too much for a blockbuster off season.

Thomas Brennan said...

Carlyle was great - but I'd pass on Sandy matching him, quit while we're ahead, and let the pitching youth movement begin in earnest. Maybe Mazzoni in his slot - or Montero (prefer he start) or Gee.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I agree with you on Carlyle.

Regarding the rotation, I just what the best guys in there, but I'm willing to wait for Matz and Thor until after the Super 2.

I want my SP 1-4 to be Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, and (frankly) MOntero)... and let Sandy deal off 2 of the other 3

How about Niese AND Gee for Mookie Betts?

Thomas Brennan said...

I agree with you on your top 4 in the rotation, including Montero. I just wonder if either Thor or Matz show up big-league-ready next spring too. I'd prefer 5 young studs from day 1 in the 5 man.

Also, I'd do that Betts trade for sure. We need another Mookie in Queens. This Mookie also looks to be a special player.

John Zozo said...

Other websites are talking about putting Murphy back in the outfield. I think if that is true, I would prefer to trade him for prospects and keep MDD in right field.

Adam Smith said...

Hey Mack,

First, wanted to thank you (all of you) for another terrific and entertaining season on the blog. The Morning Report is generally my first read of the day, and the community here is as thoughtful and welcoming as any in the Mets blogosphere. Nice job.

I am with the realists here, not expecting a jump in payroll next season. And though the Wilpons make my skin crawl and my blood boil (and TC's field managing makes my blood pressure do bad things) I was also of the camp when Sandy came in saying that it was cool with me if we spent less for a while and focused on building the org from the ground up. Of course, I would have wanted us to have more than a little "flexibility" when the time - such as now - came to take the big step.

That said, I hope that we can deal two of the Gee/Neise/Colon - headed monster and add an OF bat. Doesn't have to be a HR hitter, just a hitter.

Let's keep Flores at SS, and see if Murph lends himself to being part of a solid deal - or if Herrera's time will have to wait til the trade deadline. I'm good either way, depending upon the return, of course.

Thanks again, Mack, and everyone here, for all you do to make being a Met fan a more tolerable ride.

Reese Kaplan said...

I could see them making a run at Aoki if he batted right handed, but as it is with Granderson and den Dekker already in the picture from the left side he may not fit. He's always been a high OBP guy who steals bases -- kind of Choo-lite. Coming off a three year contract for under $5 million total suggests he's in the budget. He might be a nice replacement for Eric Young, Jr., however.

thunder12k said...

Anybody else have trouble posting from their iPhones? I do my best thinking on the can but can't post.

Thomas Brennan said...

I have phone posting issues too once in a while. Usually works OK when I pop out battery and reinstall it and reboot, but I am not a techie.

Anonymous said...

@Thunder and Tom

Yea, I have yet to figure out the bug between the Blogger platform and iPhone's iOS 8 system.

The fact that I personally don't own an iPhone doesn't help the cause either.

Mack Ade said...

Adam -

Thank you

Anonymous said...

There are also issues posting via android! Wrote something up this morning and received an error when i hit submit.

Mack Ade said...

I'm very sorry about all the trouble you guys have with Blogger, especially those of you that use handheld devices.

Blogger is designed for people that use Betamax systems...

Try to hang in...

Richard Jones said...

I think Matz gets a full year at AAA. Everyone expected Syndergaard to be up by the all-star break this year but he got a full year.
I would like to see the Mets deal Neise and Gee. Start the year with Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard,Montero, and Colon. Bring Harvey up in May and Move Montero to the pen or deal Colon. I would like a 6th starter just in case.
Dice-K will find a starting job in MLB but not with the Mets.

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