MMs Top 25: #1 RHSP Noah Syndergaard


#1 RHSP Noah Syndergaard (LR: #1)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 6" Weight: 240 lb
Acquired: Trade, 12/31/2012, with OF Wuilmer Becerra, C Travis d'Arnaud, and C John Buck for SP R.A. Dickey, C Josh Thole, C Mike Nickeas

2014: (AAA) 9-7, 4.60 ERA, 133.0 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.481 WHIP
2013: (A+/AA) 9-4, 3.06 ERA, 117.2 IP, 10.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.080 WHIP
2012: (A) 8-5, 2.60 ERA, 103.2 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.080 WHIP
2011: (R/SS-A/A) 5-2, 1.83 ERA, 59.0 IP, 10.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.085 WHIP
2010: (R) 0-1, 2.70 ERA, 13.1 IP, 4.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.125 WHIP

    And then there was 1....the kid whose arrival will mark the beginning of multiple pennant runs. The kid who will complete a string of 1 superstar SP promotion per season that started in 2012. The kid who would be an ace on most pitching staffs but will have to settle for being #4 at least to start. 2012 brought us Matt Harvey, 2013 brought us Zack Wheeler, in 2014, Jacob deGrom bursted onto the scene, and in 2015....THOR will make his presence felt.

     Our #1 prospect has something that Harvey, Wheeler, and deGrom can never possess that gives him a distinct advantage over the competition, SIZE. At 6' 6", 240 lbs, he has 2 inches on all 3 of them. He also weighs 20 lbs heavier than Harvey, 55 lbs heavier than Wheeler, and 60 lbs heavier than deGrom. His size, strength, and intimidating Nordic frame gives him a near perfect pitcher's build that will prove to be extremely durable over the course of a season and a career.

     As if the size wasn't tough enough for hitters, Thor's pitching repertoire is deadly as well. He has a  "plus-plus" fastball that sits between 96-99 MPH and if he takes a bit off it becomes a heavy 94-96 MPH sinker for when he needs a DP. He also has a plus 12-6 curveball that makes Jonathan Niese's curve look Little League quality, and a plus change-up that's deadly against LHB looking to keep up with his fastball. That's 3 plus or better pitches folks....that's Ace quality.

     On the surface it seems like he struggled quite a bit in AAA this year but oh that pesky Pacific Coast League adjustment factor. Syndergaard FIP, which is an advanced metric that takes out variables leaving only a performance rating based ONLY on the starter, measured in at 3.70 which is almost a full run lower than his ERA. For comparisons, Jacob deGrom, who's ERA indicated that he performed well in AAA, posted a FIP of 3.73. Nearly identical, folks.

     Despite his AAA struggles Thor is ready. Its unfortunate that he did not make his debut this season but you can fault that on deGrom stepping up and stealing the spotlight from him this season. MLB.com's #11 overall prospect and #4 RHP prospect could potentially be the best of the quartet of young talented SP the Mets have. Dare I say.....that Generation K 2.0 is here......and it is glorious.

Ceiling: Top of the Rotation, 200+ K, CY Young Candidate (Stephen Strasburg)
Floor: Solid #2 MLB SP. Hovers around the high 2.00/low 3.00 ERA range (Zack Grienke)


Mack Ade said...

Christopher -

Thank you for your work here.

I'm not sure people understand how much work needs to be put into series like this.

Overall, I think you were spot on.

Art Pesner said...

Thank you for this series. If your #1 lives up to his billing, the Mets rotation in short order will have a chance to put up a shutout every single night. That indeed is glorious.

Ernest Dove said...

Im sticking to same opinion that Mets simply can't trade this kid. I understand that organization's throughout mlb have history of trading away top prospects to make that 'final push' to playoff glory. But IMO the Mets are just not there yet. I'd take my chancez with what we got as hitters and/or trade whatever other assests we do have, like Plawecki, and pretty much ANY minor league pitcher not named syndergaard/Molina/Matz and see what happens.

Thomas Brennan said...

I am going to pile on, Chris, in adding that it was a great series analyzing the Top 25. My only disagreement is not having Akeel Morris #1. Just kidding, but if he truly is 24th, after how extremely well he pitched albeit in Savannah, we have a boatload of talent on its way to be excited about for sure.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

I too want a Dream Team rotation of Harvey, Heeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz

What I'm willing to live with is a talent-limited return on who the Mets could convince a team to trade for Niese, Gee, Colon.

As for Montero, he would be my emergency SP5 and long man

The Mets would lead the NL with the lowest SP ERA and WHIP

Mack's Mets © 2012