9/29/14

Morning Report – September 28 – A Team Controlled Future, DL, Kiley-Chat, Eno-Chat, Detroit Tigers

28 comments


I walked away with one distinct trend when I broke out the 29 other teams and if they had any potential SS or OF prospects the Mets could target in the off-season.

You read these sites, all their local blogs, the trade rumor sites, and you walk away with the feeling that Sandy Alderson isn’t the only General Manager out there that is trying to build the future of their team around team controlled players.

There was a time that you could trade a couple of high level prospects for an existing starting player (under contract) in a heartbeat, but that is quickly changing. Nobody wants to give up their top prospects anymore.

Oh, there are exceptions… the Dodgers and Yankees come to mind… but everybody is starting to look to the draft, the international free agent market, and even the independent leagues, for long term answers for their parent team.

Right now, the Mets have a very defined ++ talent level for their projected long term infield. C Kevin Plawecki, 1B Dom Smith, 2B Dilson Herrera, SS Amed Rosario, and 3B Jhoan Urena could all be in the same lineup come 2018, or latest, 2019. Nothing is guaranteed and people like David Wright aren’t just going to roll over, but I did want to point out the high level of talent that has joined this organization lately by either the draft, trades, or the international market.



Lucas Duda hit the @Mets’ 1st walk-off HR while losing a shutout since Duke Snider in 1963.




The Washington Nationals five regular starters did over their final 13 games: 13-0, 0.89 ERA.



Reinstated from DL:

RHP Ty Bashlor, RHP John Church, RHP Miller Diaz, RHP Jose Encarnacion, RHP Chris Flexen, RHP Michael Fulmer, RHP Carlos Gomez, RHP Jeremy Hefner, RHP Johnny Magliozzi, RHP Tyler Vanderheiden, RHP Jeff Walters, RHP Beck Wheeler, LHP Darin Gorski, LHP Scott Rice, 1B Jon Leroux, 3B Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B Gregory Valencia, SS Omar Quintanilla, OF Brandon Brosher



Kiley-Chat –

Comment From The Iron Sheik - Thoughts on Brandon Nimmo? ML regular, perhaps starting tail end of next year?

Kiley McDaniel: Regular upside but should be in minors all of 2015

Comment From Dave - At draft time, was the power for Dominic Smith all future power? How concerning is his complete lack of power so far?

Kiley McDaniel: line drive approach, 55 now/future raw power but game power will take a little time to integrate. scouts comp’d to todd helton in high school.

Mack – Both Nimmo and Smith get some steady positive press these days and my hopes none of goes to the head of the players or the decision makers that determine where they play next season. We need to handle both these cases differently. Send Nimmo to Las Vegas and let him hit some balls over the wall. It would be nice to get him in the Queens starting lineup after the all-star break, but I’m willing to stretch this to opening day 2016.

Smith’s a completely different animal. All he needs to do next year is show up the first player in the cage and work with the batting coach well past the end of the game. It’s going to take some time and a lot of talent to pass by both Jayce Boyd and Lucas Duda.


Eno-Chat –
           Comment From Andrew Y - How concerning was deGrom’s shoulder tendonitis earlier in the year? Should we be worried his arm will fall off next season?

Eno Sarris: It’s too bad that he’s now had a major elbow event (TJ) and a minor shoulder event. He has good command and uses a wide array of pitches, and hasn’t thrown as much as other young starters, but he has the injury asterisk because of those two events.

Comment From Schiraldi - Low-amplitude trade ideas: Allen Craig to the Mets for Bartolo Colon.

Eno Sarris: Hey I like this! Not sure the Sawx do, but they could use a vet in the back, it looks like Craig isn’t going to be super useful. We know the Mets don’t mind ceding defense in certain places.

Comment From Marty - Next year’s ranks: Alex Wood, Jacob deGrom, Pineda.
Eno Sarris: deGrom Wood Pineda. I like them all, but Pineda’s innings will be lowest number in the set.

Mack – Having an injury asterisk next to deGrom could be a good thing. All the other GMs will stop asking about him and we’re assured a return of possibly our long term SP2.


Oh yeah… one more thing…  I didn’t bring up Alan Craig again. This time it was Eno.



We continue our look for a new shortstop and/or left fielder in the AL Central, with a look at the Detroit Tigers.

According to Cot[i], the 2014 salaries for the Tigers is $163,635,500. It includes five long term contracts, none of which are for outfielders or a shortstop.

There also are seven players going into free agency, including OF Torii Hunter. The other two starting outfielders are Rajai Davis ($5mil-2015, FA-2016) and J.D. Martinez (pre-arbitration). Don Kelly ($1mil-ARB3) serves as the 4th outfielder.
Eugenio Suarez (pre-arbitration) is the starting shortstop, with Andrew Romine (pre-arbitration) as backup.

Prospect wise, an interesting name is OF Steven Moya. He’ll play next year at 24, has been hampered by injuries (TJS-2012), and still hasn’t played AAA, but he hit 35-HR and 105-RBI for the Tigers AA team last year. Also, there’s LF Tyler Collins (AAA: .263, 18-HR, 62-RBI) that could fill the 2015 need for the Mets.

Shortstop wise, Hernan Perez (AAA: .287, 6-HR, 53-RBI) projects as a botton of the lineup hitter.

Mack Observation – I would be surprised if the tigers turn to Moya to fill the void left when Hunter departs. Thus, I see them looking for help outside their system.
I’m not sure Moya is worth either Jonathan Niese or Dillon Gee. I probably would look to another team to solve my 2015 problems.

28 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

When thinking of lefty OFs in 2015, consider what Matt den Dekker did in September: 19 for 58 with 6 doubles, 9 walks, and only 11 Ks (a very impressive .328/.426). Compare to Eric Young Jr. Not as much speed, but close, and much better fielder. And far more power.

Not even bad for year vs. lefties – on base 7 of 19 times, with just 4 Ks this year.

He's my starting RF vs. lefties unless they make a splash.

Duda the monster. Once he got more aggressive after Memorial Day, in 103 games he had 20 doubles, 23 HR, and 68 RBIs. He still can be more aggressive, and that will only make him better in 2015. Fences in, and I want the Big Lebowsky to go 40/110 in 2015.

Ernest Dove said...

Regarding Dom Smith and his power
Seeing as how Nimmo just had more homers against aa ball pitching, in limited at bats out there, then he did at Savannah/Lucie combined, im not worried abiut the TEENAGER Smith.

Thomas Brennan said...

Back to fences for a minute:

Mets finished 28th in overall hitting with an average of .238.

Dragged down by .224 at home 30th, with 286 runs.

Road Warriors: 8th at .252, 343 runs. 57 MORE runs on the road.

Or only 83% as many runs at home than on road.

Excluding Mets, the other 29 teams hit .257 home, just .246 on the road.

And despite 4.3% fewer home at bats (because teams do not bat if they lead after the mid-9th), the other 29 teams nonetheless scored 230 more runs at home than on the road (2.4% more runs). So other teams overall hit much better at home, as one would expect with home field advantage, than on the road.

Mets undoubtedly had the worst negative hitting disparity of any team. Again.

But the fences are OK. Hey, make them deeper.

Reese Kaplan said...

I had brought up Moya in an article on minor leaguers to target. They guy's built like Stanton. I'd push hard and see what it would take.

On the fences, while I'm on the bandwagon for moving them, recognize that ever since Citifield opened the Mets have had a disparity with the visitors when it comes to home runs. There's no reason to think that trend will change until they acquire better hitting talent.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey, Reese, I hear you on skepticism on impact of the fences without better hitters.

But surprisingly, the last 4 years, they hit much better on the road, more or less middle of the pack, and scraping bottom at home.

So the fences would most importantly add runs, not homers. I think hitters simply get psyched out over the course of the year hitting at Citi, and it affects all offensive output at home - average, runs, hits. I think fences moved in enough to matter will cure a lot of that without getting new hitters.

With new hitters, like Cespedes, who my brother really wants the Mets to take a run at, for example, or your guy Moya, the hitting would only be that much better.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

The consensus is that the Mets will bring the fences in a little which should help the offensive stats.

I'm just old school and love a 1-0 game

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

Nobody hit home runs in Grayson Stadium... ever

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

I've been working on some things for October which includes some thoughts on den Dekker.

He definitely is odds on favorite now for a platoon slot on opening day 2015... my guess is Granderson will move to RF and dD's cannon moves to right... but... I'm not sure if Campbell's arm is good enough out there.

Still, good job by Matt, especially in September.

Thomas Brennan said...

I was a big Campbell proponent all year, but I wonder if he is just 2014's version of the 2013 Josh Satin. They may need to upgrade next season. Puello could have been that platoon guy vs. lefties, but he showed too little in 2014 to bank on that. I hope Puello gets another winter ball stint and shows a turnaround. He does hit lefties well - but on the major league level, would it be good enough to make the squad on opening day? Doubt it - this is not another rebuilding year coming up.

D Whit said...

Mack-

Even though he missed the season SS Jose Iglesias is the player for the Mets to look at on the Tigers. They gave up Avisail Garcia to get him last season at the deadline. Hard to say if his stock has fallen enough to be available but worth a shot. If so Gee would be the guy to offer I would think.

bob gregory said...

What's wrong with keeping denDekker, Nieuwenhuis, Campbell, and yes even Tejada as your 2015 bench?

Look to upgrade at that last OF spot. (cough...cough.. Tomas,Cespedes)

Wright and Granderson can not be automatically assumed to return to past form next year.
and....even if they did...

add that to an upgraded outfielder with DD, Nieuwenhuis, Campbell, and Tejada on the bench and your team is only better.

Next year is not the time to worry about Nimmo and Conforto. Let them kick others out of their spots when their play demands it.

Mack Ade said...

D Whit -

That seems like a good deal.

An Iglesias for Gee deal would be two damaged parts... 'd even throw in another secondary pitcher like Verrett or Goeddel.

We could afford to do that.

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

I think the bench will be determined depending on who the starting SS and LF are.

If the Mets go outside the organization for either, Flores and den Dekker would be utility players and guys like Tejada would be gone.

We have to wait and see what develops first.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Mack - on the 1-0 wins I am not against them. This team though has won close to 40 LESS games at Citi than on the road over the past 4 years. Which is baffling, and needs to be fixed. I think it is the fences.

Sandy says it is important that the fans be entertained. I agree - they pay the freight. Fans are mostly entertained when a team wins a lot, especially at home. if they made the fences 50 feet deeper and we won 70%, that would be OK.

I just believe when they fix the fences, the next 4 years they'll win 30 or 40 MORE at home, not less. Can't prove it, just my gut.

Dallas said...

By the way guys, the Mets projected win/loss record based on their run differential was 82-80. Getting to 88 wins for the WC spot would require adding 6 wins on top of that. Seems pretty doable just by taking out the games the relief corp blew at the front of the season. Nearly every position except 2nd base and RF seems like it could improve next year just by playing the members already on the team. Doesnt get us to the level of the Nats though...

Mack Ade said...

Dallas -

The 2014 Washington Nationals are a wonderful template for a team with a progressive owner. The problem is we don't have one nor does it look like this team will ever return to the salary levels of the past (under the Wilpons).

TP said...

Mack,
I agree with those who like MDD as a piece in 2015. I understand Sept. stats cannot be trusted. And I inderstand they need to add a RH power bat that can fit somewhere in the middle of the lineup. I think MDD still needs to be on the team. He led the Eastern league in hitting in 2012 and the PCL in hitting in 2014. He gas plus speed and plus D. He gas shown he can nake big adjustments to his approach to better meet organizTional needs for tablesetrers. He provides a solid back to Lagares who has show. To be injury prone. What's not to like? H's on my 25 man.

Anonymous said...

Good Afternoon Mack:
Must be a boring day! Season over. Im enjoying some of the pics of the youngers at the prospect camp. Hope you are aswell,cool to see Nimmo and Conforto together. I like the direction team is going now is the time to stay the course. build your depth let the youngsters -Smith-Urena-Rosario go level by level. The money I would like to see spent though is on the roster right now!! Say Wheeler Duda d'Arnaud Lagares deGrom Familia. Try and buy out there arbitration years if you can?

Michael S. said...

Extending as many of our young players to team-friendly contracts needs to be on the agenda this offseason. So much work and patience has gone into building this foundation, we darn well better keep it together.

Anonymous said...

I totally agree,like Cleveland did in the mid 90's. The one problem is agents like Borass? He represents Harvey, that's why I never put his name with the others

Hobie said...

I agree with Michael S. on extending a “new core.” I include Murphy in that concept incorporating the idea that it would make him even more valuable come July or downstream.

The fly in the ointment is Granderson. What does he give us that dD doesn’t no matter where the fences are? He prevents any consideration of seriously pursuing Yas Tomas (my preferance) or even Tulo (maybe that’s a good thing). Anything for Curtis should be an off season priority.

With no acquisitions I would like to see 2015 begin with a Wright-Lagares-denDekker OF (if you like the Washington template, think about where they’re playing Zimmerman) and a Duda-Herrera-Flores-Murphy IF.

If there’s a SS out there that gives a combined offense+defense superior to the Flores package, fine, but I’d be loathe to pay for him with any of d’G, Wheeler, Thor, Familia or Mejia.

Michael S. said...

That Granderson deal looms large and really gums up the works. We can't move him, so it seriously hinders our ability to go outside the org to upgrade and could block our youngsters. Bad, bad move.

bob gregory said...

There is no legitimate reason Granderson should prevent signing or acquiring a player like Tomas if Mets are becoming serious about building a quality team for now and the future.
None

Mack Ade said...

Anon -

I like the idea of buying out arbitration years for as many of these guys as they can... the future of this team is already in the organization...

Mack Ade said...

Hobie -

I think the Mets are stuck with Grandy, so they might as well play him.

Get off to a good start... move right center in... you may have 25-30 HRs here

Anonymous said...

The model is to buy out final two years of Arb and first two of FA, so schedule raises accordingly.

Thomas Brennan said...

I thought...uhh...that...uhh.. I heard Francesca say Mets can't move Niese due to his heart and shoulder. Anyone agree with that? Guy just had a solid season and he's a lefty, so his value might be diminished but it is not like he's got a mammoth contract.

Mack Ade said...

Nobody likes pitches that can't stay on the bump.

They hate them even more if they have a ticker problem.

Yeah, my guess is that Niese is fucked

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