9/18/14

Morning Report – September 18 – Wilmer Flores, Michael Conforto, Miami Marlins, Off-season Fitness Camp, David Wright, Matt Harvey

15 comments


Carson Cistulli on Wilmer Flores playing shortstop -

What appears likely, in any case, is that the Mets experiment of installing Flores as the (mostly) starter at shortstop has had relatively positive returns thus far — if only because those returns haven’t been disastrous. It’s also an experiment that probably deserves to be extended — because, as Baseball America noted in 2012, a player with Flores’ offensive upside does have a chance to be special if he’s also playing shortstop. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wilmer-flores-not-a-disaster-at-shortstop-yet/

Mack – Wow. Somebody is actually writing a national article on Wilmer Flores playing shortstop. This has to be a first. I’m so surrounded by ‘Mets writers’ and ‘Mets readers’, that I love when I get an out my wheelhouse and get a chance to read what an outsider thinks about the potential of Flores. Judging on what I’m reading here, the Mets should have a little more patience with him and give him the 2015 season to continue to grow into this job.





Mets WAR - Lagares 3.8, Duda 2.7, Murphy 2.7, Wright 1.9, d'Arnaud 1.7, Flores 1.2, EY Jr 1.1, Tejada 1.0 , Grandy 0.8, Kirk 0.7



Buster Olney estimates that James Shields, Max Scherzer, Pablo Sandoval, Melky Cabrera, Russell Martin, Nelson Cruz, J.J. Hardy, Victor Martinez, Ervin Santana, David Robertson and Hanley Ramirez will receive qualifying offers, which should fall between $15MM and $15.5MM.

    Mack - Sadly, Hardy is on this list. However, more and more I see the Mets holding fast in 2015 with Wilmer Flores at short.




Newest Addition: Michael Conforto, OF: The 10th overall pick in the June draft, Conforto came in and did exactly what an advanced college bat should do in the New York-Penn League - hit. He hit just three home runs in 42 games, but should project for more power than that. He's not a surefire middle-of-the-order bat, but he should be an everyday player in the Mets outfield. He could move quickly through their system and may not need more than a half year at each level. http://www.mlbprospectwatch.com/mlb_prospect_watch/2014/09/organization-recap-new-york-mets.html




Brian Joura, over at Mets360, wrote a great post about the four players that attended the off-season fitness camp before this season started. The results were interesting…  Ruben Tejada increased his OPS by 103 points… Lucas Duda by 53 points… Wilmer Flores by 59 points… and Juan Lagares by 74 points.

Obviously, these guys should keep doing what they learned there, but who should the Mets send to camp this off-season?

The first guy I would like to send… back… is Duda and target all the direction from camp leaders to the eventual goal of an increased OPS against left-handed pitching. We desperately need Duda to be the real deal at first base.

Second, I vote for Dilson Herrera, both for defensive and offensive reasons. It looks like he is the future second baseman for this team and it’s going to take an awful big improvement in his OPS to top the .752 being turned out by Daniel Murphy.

Third on my list would be Eric Campbell. We know he can hit… but he needs all the help he can get in speed drills and outfield defense.

Back in June, David Wright slid and apparently jammed his shoulder; from the looks of it, he was never right again. The source of the injury seems to be Wright's rotator cuff. The rotator cuff is a network of four muscles that help keep the upper arm in the socket; it is attached to the shoulder blade and helps to stabilize the arm through motion. The inflammation that Wright is experiencing is exacerbated by a lack of rest and the repeated efforts his shoulder had to endure throughout the season.

This type of injury is not uncommon among overhead-throwing athletes. Between swinging a bat, sliding, falling, and throwing a baseball, the shoulders get a tremendous amount of abuse during the course of a season. This abuse doesn’t always manifest itself in injuries, but when small inflammation arises, the body will tend to make compensations in order to keep itself functioning. Over time, this can cause further damage or new injuries to other parts of the body. - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2014/9/14/6145019/new-york-mets-david-wright-injury
                          Mack – Read this… a very interesting analysis on Wright’s injury.


Erik Hudson -

Hey Mack, good to see Matt Harvey hitting 95 mph in his bullpen.  Are the Mets going to use what the Nats did with Strasburg as their guide next year?  Limiting him to about 160 IP, and shutting him down in September no matter what the standings are?
  Erik, I remember reading somewhere that Harvey will be limited in his pitch count next season and 2016 will be the first year he will be allowed to pitch without one. Ironically, 2016 will also be the first year of his arbitration period.
The building of the future Mets 25-man gets easier every time someone like Harvey heals and Jacob deGrom strikes out eight batters in a row.
I believe baseball has been put on notice that three-fifths of the future Mets dream rotation has been built (Harvey, deGrom, Zack Wheeler) and ‘the phones are open’ for all offers involving the rest of the pitchers we have around here.
Did Wilmer Flores get enough time to prove he can play SS in 2015?
Is an Eric Campbell-Matt den Dekker platoon enough in LF in 2015, waiting for Brandon Nimmo to mature?
And if all this is answered with ‘yes’, what do we do with all these pitchers?



We continue our hunt for a 2015 SS and LF replacement in the NL East. Next up is the Florida Miami Marlins.

According to Cot[i], the Marlins 2014 salaries are $45,825,400.

You’ve only got three extended contracts here, all of which are ‘cheap’… catcher Jarrod Saltamacchia (.232- $7mil-2015, $8mil-2016), 1B Garrett Jones (.241 - $5mil-2015), and 2B Jeff Baker (.260 - $2.1mil-2015).

Outfield wise, superstar Giancarlo Stanton (.291, 36-HR) is just finishing his ARB-1 year at $6.5mil and speculation is his ARB-2 year could exceed $10mil… Christian Yelich (.294) and Marcell Ozuna (.264) are still pre-ARB… chief backup and 4th outfielder is veteran Reed Johnson (156-AB, .218 - $1mil-2014, FA-2015).

According to the Marlins web site, they have only had one person play shortstop this season… Adeiny Hechavarria (.276 - $2.2mil-2014 – pre-ARB).

Mack observation – It’s no big secret that the owner of the Marlins, Jeffrey Loria, doesn’t like to spend money on this team. It’s also no big secret that the baseball world is anticipating an eventual trade of Stanton well before he becomes eligible for free agency. Add to this the six million dollar bonus that was paid out this year to first round pick, RHP Tyler Kolek, well… you can figure out priorities here.

I expect the Marlins to solve their future roster needs with a 4-6 team controlled player package deal for Stanton. They are super-duper young pitcher deep, but they still need to put a better team on the field every day (sound familiar?).

Nobody here for us. 

15 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Man, I don't want to sound like a broken record about the fences, but Wilmer gets robbed of almost a game-changing home run last nite. Duda hasn't homered in a while - but just missed 2 this week.
Move the fences in. All of them.

I agree, Mack. All those guys should go to the conditioning camp. And Duda needs to hire lefty pitchers to get him hitting them. If I were Campbell, I really would want to be there. Add some strength and it could make the difference in him having some distance on his major league career.

Wilmer's got 10 more games to add to his SS resume - but as far as I am concerned, Mr Contact is fine as my 2015 SS.

Mack Ade said...

Well, as I wrote for a future post, once Brennan moves the fences in so they are in front of where Murphy stands in the shift, we'll all be better... :)

(yes, that would have been a game changer last night)

John Zozo said...

I would send each and everyone of them to that camp !!! I would also make sure that if Wilmer plays in the Venezuelan league this winter, have him strictly play SS.

Mack Ade said...

John -

Sadly, we learned when Josh Satin went there a few years ago to learn the OF that the Mets had no say where the Venezuelan teams play their players... Josh came quickly home then

bob gregory said...

If the fences were moved in just 1 foot, Wilmer would have had 3 homeruns Tuesday night and 1 more last night.
Wow.
When was the last time a Met SS had 4 homeruns in two days?

Heck,when was the last time any Met had 4 homeruns in two days?

Mack Ade said...

It's amazing what happens when someone knows they are going to play every day and not bat behind the pitcher.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Mack, I wanted to recommend Little League World Series dimensions, but I restrained myself!!!!

bob gregory said...

Mack
It goes to show how much of hitting is comfort and confidence.

Adam Smith said...

The kid can put the bat on just about anything, he's got way more power than he's being given credit for, and he clearly doesn't shrink from RBI situations. I see no reason that Flores can't put up .280/15/75 next season (I think he'll be better than that at his peak.) If so, and if he can be even a slightly below average fielder, he's an all-star candidate at SS in the NL. But better than that, he's a SS who can hit 2nd or 5th on this squad, and a giant step forward for the offense overall. He also, from what I can tell, seems to be a nice kid with his head on straight.

Sign me up right now for Wilmer as my 2015 starting SS.

Mack Ade said...

Adam -

Frankly, I now agree and, the more he plays with the confidence he is showing (he always had the talent), the more (IMO) he is getting closer to hitting third in the future...

1. CF Lagares
2. 2B Murphy
3. SS Flores
4. 1B Duda
5.
6. 3B Wright

Mack Ade said...

Adam -

Frankly, I now agree and, the more he plays with the confidence he is showing (he always had the talent), the more (IMO) he is getting closer to hitting third in the future...

1. CF Lagares
2. 2B Murphy
3. SS Flores
4. 1B Duda
5.
6. 3B Wright

bob gregory said...

yikes....
Mack....
did you just sneak in sliding Captain Wright down to the 6th spot?

Thomas Brennan said...

I'd put d'Arnaud 5th and Granderson 7th or 8th (except when Jake is hitting, then I'd put him 8th or 9th). My dissatisfaction with Grandy keeps seeping out. I have to realize there may be a cure: shorter fences! (Wait, I already said that 3 times today)

Anonymous said...

I'd like to use some of the lesser arms to acquire Bryce Brentz to play Left

Mack Ade said...

Bob -

Did you like that? :)

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