Morning Report – September 17 – Steven Matz, Javier Baez, Dilson Herrera, Atlanta Braves,

I read yesterday that Sandy Alderson made a special trip to see Steven Matz pitch in the championship game in Binghmanton. He had the pleasure of watching Matz throw 7.1 hitless innings on the way to the victory and was even seen leading the standing ovation when a hit was finally given up in the eighth inning.

Matz is not your normal AA pitcher. He never pitched pro-ball in 2009 (signed at the August deadline) after being drafted (a 2^nd round pick; the Mets lost their 1st round pick that year as compensation for signing RP Francisco Rodriguez), and he had to sit out for both the entire 2010 and 2011 season due to Tommy John Surgery (80% tear in is UCL), Since then, he’s basically blew through A/A+/AA ball with a combined 2.21-ERA.  He will play 2015 at 24-years old so this kid is ready, but where do you put him? I just finished writing the other day about the glut of starters that will be in camp come spring… do we really need another one?

We’ve discussed this a number of times lately. The Mets want to keep all their younger, cheaper, team controlled starters like Matz, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. What they would also like to do is deal off their veterans… pitchers like Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, and Jon Niese.

The 'Super 2' situation does create a situation where two of these guys (Matz, Thor) can be held back until the all-star break so the Mets get one more arbitration year out of them. This gives the Mets additional time to trade their current rotation assets.

I hope this works out for them because, the guys they want to trade, have done a pretty decent job for them up to now.

Bud Selig on The New York Mets –

“As far as I’m concerned, from my perspective, I think the way the Mets are doing this thing is correct. There are a lot of teams in life that spend a lot of money that don’t do well, either. And I’m not trying to be facetious saying that. I’m going to see Sandy Alderson, whom of course I have great personal affection and respect for. And I often talk to Sandy, as I do all the general managers and people all over baseball about what they’re doing. I went to Houston early in the year and they were all exorcised about, ‘Oh my goodness, this is a bad team. This is this. This is that.’ And all of a sudden now they’re playing remarkably and so on and so forth.

Do I have any problem with the Mets’ finances? None. I tell the owners all the time, and I tell myself: In my judgment -- my judgment -- Branch Rickey was right. Mr. Rickey used to say it takes three to five years before you can analyze a trade. And that’s even more so relative to a franchise.

In Chicago there’s been a lot of criticism. I happen to think Cubs GM  Theo Epstein is doing it the right way. And I think lately the Cubs are starting to play that way. Yet there was a lot of criticism. There’s been criticism of Houston. I’ve watched this over the years.

I’m always sort of baffled by this, ‘If you spend X and this and so on and so forth. You just look at who’s winning. Unless I read the standings wrong on the way over here today, it looks to me like the Baltimore Orioles may win the American League East this year. Anybody here predict that on April 1? I don’t think so. I rest my case. I’m telling you that I talk to people all the time. I also do a lot of rating of farm systems. You have no idea the work that I do privately, quietly. And I’m satisfied that this Mets franchise is doing it the right way, in my baseball judgment.

Look, I’m a fan at heart. No one was more impatient, nobody had more temper tantrums as the Brewers owner. It’s difficult to draw conclusions. You know, you go to St. Louis. It’s a smaller market and they don’t spend money like, as my father used to say, ‘drunken sailors.’ But they’re very competitive every year. But it takes time. It takes time to build. Yes, I understand fan frustration. I do. I do understand. I read every paper every day. … But the fact of the matter is I do monitor every team. And honestly, if I felt, and I mean this very sincerely, that there was a team really not doing what I thought they should do in the best interest of the sport, they’d hear from me.

As far as I’m concerned, I’ve said this in the past and I’ll say it again: I don’t have any problem with the Mets’ financing, with what’s going on as far as all of our economic rules, and we have a myriad of them. They are in compliance with them. They’re doing fine. The Dodgers were not in compliance with any of them.”

            Mack – Blah, blah, blah…

Lucy van Pelt might say that strikeouts for the Cubs are real up. How far up are they? The team record — if that’s the best word to use — for strikeouts in a single season was 1,269 before the 2014 season began. That record fell a few days ago, and the Cubs have now flown past 1,300 for the season, sitting at 1,341 strikeouts with 13 games remaining. Each additional strikeout adds to the total, and 1,500 is within the realm of possibility. Much of the blame for this can be laid at the feet of Javier Baez, who strikes out at a rate approaching twice per game. It may not sound like much, but the all-time strikeout king, Reggie Jackson, struck out an average of 0.92 times per game during his career. Javier Baez is doubling that pace. The modern gold standard for whiffing is Adam Dunn, who strikes out an average of 1.2 times each game over his career. Javier Baez’ rate is 50 percent higher than this abominable number, and suggests that he needs to get something figured out at the plate, and soon.   http://throughthefencebaseball.com/javier-baez-helping-cubs-approach-unprecedented-low/43915#ex83YDRBKeTROAwk.99

Statistical King: Dilson Herrera, 2B: Herrera's meteoric assent through the minors started in St. Lucie and ended in Queens, something that even he didn't see coming. When it was all said and done, he hit .323/.379/.479 combined between High and Double-A. That's not an accurate depiction of the kind of player Herrera can be in the majors, but he has established himself as a player the Mets can consider for their future, possibly as their everyday second baseman. He could probably still use some time in Triple-A, but needs forced a major league call-up. Expectations are through the roof for Herrera, so he's bound to disappoint a little, but he should be a quality major leaguer and fill a role on the Mets roster in some regard. 

http://www.mlbprospectwatch.com/mlb_prospect_watch/2014/09/organization-recap-new-york-mets.html

We move on to the NL East in our search for a possible trade partner for a SS or LF in 2015.

First up… the Atlanta Braves.

According to Cot[i], The Braves 2014 payroll is $112,008,731.

The Braves are becoming quite committed to players via long term contracts. CF B.J. Upton (.206), RHP Craig Kimbrel. 1B Freddie Freeman, SS Andrelton Simmons (.242), and RHP Julio Teheran are all locked up through at least 2017.

LF Justin Upton (.284) has one more year left at $14.708/mil and Jason Heyward (.274) also only has 2015 left (at $8.3mil).

There have only been 83 at-bats by other outfielders in 2014, 80 by Jordan Schafer (.163). That’s okay… according to the Braves website, no one had a single at-bat while playing short other than Simmons.

Prospect wise, the Braves #1 prospect is 2B-SS Jose Peraza, who just finished playing at the AA-level (.335). He projected very similar to the Mets Dilson Herrera.

OF Braxton Davidson’s ETA isn’t until 2018 and then the pipeline dries up pretty quickly.

Mack’s Observation – I think the Braves are in trouble and could be the future last place team in this division. Their payroll is already swollen ($74.769mil in 2017) and it’s going to take a considerable amount of money to resign Heyward.

Remember… these contracts can quickly bite you up the ass. Remember that they still have to pay ex-2B Dan Uggla $13.2mil in 2015.

There’s no one here. Simmons is the best young shortstop in baseball and the Braves have their own problems in their future 2015 outfield. You may find them competing with the same players the Mets will be going out in the market to secure. 

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[i] http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/atlanta-braves/