Morning Report – October 6 – Travi s d'Arnaud, Michael Brantley, Marcell Ozuna, Eno-Chat, Seattle Mariners

Everybody is going to start grading Mets players this time of the year who we’ll use the ones on this site and add some thoughts:

            Travis d’Arnaud, catcher - The season did not start out well for the Mets’ top hitting prospect. But after a quick trip to Triple-A he returned as the prospect the front office thought he’d be when he was acquired in the R.A. Dickey deal.   Grade: B–  http://www.metro.us/newyork/sports/mlb/2014/09/30/mets-2014-report-card/

OF Michael Brantley, Cleveland Indians - Eno Sarris mentioned recently that he saw results of a recent NFBC draft or mock draft – I forget which already, dangit – and this fantasy baseball darling went like 15th overall. I’d already assumed that Brantley’s price would be a little rich for my blood in 2015, and this is only one sample, but my blood will completely reject that type. Brantley’s .327/.385/.506 slash line, with 20 home runs and 23 stolen bases, in 676 plate appearances in his age-27 season made him a top-five money earner, but these days we know that – generally speaking, only, granted – players are past peak at that stage of their careers. Brantley’s batted-ball rates (28.2% fly balls, 12.7% HR/FB) and average homer distances, even if untrustworthy at face value, indicate that this type of performance isn’t regularly within his grasp, though. The stolen base opportunities will fall with some correction in his batting average, too. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/i-surely-wont-own-these-5-players-in-2015/

Mark Mokris asked -

Hello Mack, I hope all is well with you and your family.  With the free agent market being thin in power bat outfielders I was wondering what you would think it would take to get Marcell Ozuna from the Marlins?  The Marlins are stacked with good pitching prospects in the minors so I was thinking about ready major league players in return.  Based upon what I saw, Ozuna is definitely not a centerfielder but profiles as an above average right fielder.  The reason this is important is because Marlins park is even more spacious than Citi and Marlins have already said they aren't going to trade Stanton until after 2015 season if at all and Yelich has said he does not want to move to first base.  My proposed trade would be Wilmer Flores (can switch to his best position third base), Dilson Herrera (long term answer at second base) and Matt den Dekker (legit defensive centerfielder but who knows whether he can be everyday regular).  This is obviously a lot to give up especially if Herrera and Flores hit like expected but would be trading for proven power and a gun for an arm in right field.  Granderson has one of the worst arms in baseball and needs to be moved to left field.  The other possibility is to switch out Flores with Murphy.  This actually make trade more manageable for both sides.  That would give Marlins a legit bat back that can play third, second, or first depending on who else they can sign and would open second base for Flores who is far superior than Murphy at turning the double play.  Too much, too little, which team hangs up the phone? Or would you prefer Jay Bruce?

             Mack – Jay who?

No one has ever brought up Ozuna before, nor have many people ever considered Miami a possible trading partner with the Mets, but their owner has proven a couple of times that he is willing to start completely over just do he’s in total control.

(by the way, please don’t tell m that Alderson may not be wrong when it comes to being able to field a competitive team for a combined salary in the $80-85mil range. Miami is doing it for under $46mil[i])

Ozuna may be pre-ARB, but he’s not going to stay making $505K for much longer.

You’ve also done your research well on your proposed trade. The team controlled combination of Flores and Herrera would be perfect 2015 replacements for Adeiny Hechavvaria ($2.2mil-2014) and Rafael Furcal ($3.5mil-2014), and offering someone like Kevin Plawecki isn’t going to do you much good when they have Jarrod Saltalamacchia under contract through 2016.

Do I like the idea? Sure, but I’d hate to lose Herrera.

Could Sandy pull it off? Take out den Dekker and add Brandon Nimmo and probably.

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[i] https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tQJ2iJ0-ErOo_z9G3xKSQ9g&output=html

Jan Groot -

Good morning Mack. It is nice to have that many pitchers. You can never have too many of those, right? I looked at what the Mets "have" and came up with the following.

For the Mets you got 6 starters, Harvey, DeGrom, Wheeler, Colon, Niese and Gee. You can put Mejia, Familia, Black, Torres, Edgin and Eveland in the bullpen. If you want you could put Gee in the bullpen as the long man/spot starter. So that's next year's pitching staff.

On to Las Vegas.

The following guys all could pitch in Las Vegas as starters.

"Leftovers" from 2013 are Montero, Syndergaard, Verrett, Mazzoni and Bowman. Then you got the Binghamton starters who earned a promoton, Matz and Pill.

But to come back at the question, Jon Niese: Stay or Go ??????????? I think he goes. The Dodgers have a very crowded outfield and have 3 starters under contract, Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu. How can there not be a match between the Mets and Dodgers? What will it take to get Joc Pederson? Or should the Mets settle for Scott Van Slyke? Scott does have an OPS of 910 in 200+ AB (297/386/524)

Perhaps the Dodgers and Mets should make a bold move. Syndergaard, Plawecki, Niese and Kirk for Pederson, Urias and Van Slyke. I dont know if this is a fair deal but it gives the Mets a RF/CF (Pederson) a LF (Van Slyke) (both with power) and a very young and talented lefty (Urias). It gives the Dodgers a solid #4 (Niese) behind Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu. A near ready every day catcher (Plawecki), a near ready starter (Syndergaard) and a #5 OF-er (Kirk)

And why would both teams make this trade? The Dodgers have Crawford (2017), Ethier (2017), Kemp (2019) and Puig (2018) under contract. Other then Puig, no match for the Mets because of the money. So is there room for Pederson? And when the Mets include Kirk the Dodgers might be willing to deal Van Slyke. The Mets on the other hand have a very crowded rotation and even more in Las Vegas so the Mets could deal their top pitching prospect and a "cheap" lefty under contract after 2018. With d'Arnaud the Mets could trade Plawecki and the Dodgers realy dont have any type of catching in their farm.

 What do you think about the Mets-Dodgers deal?

            Jan – Thank you for your question.

As you have found out on your own, the Mets and Dodgers would make for wonderful trade partners in this off-season. I just watched game one of their playoff game against St. Louis and this team simply can’t field all the outfield talent they have. When healthy (like now) they are unmatched in baseball.

It seems to me that you have a choice of three to pick from. Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford’s contracts are never going to be assumed by the Wilpons. You can forget about Yasiel Puig for so many reasons, which leaves you Andre Eithier ($17.5mil/2017, team option/2018), Scott Van Slyke (27-yrs. Old, 212-AB, .297, 11-HR), and Joc Pederson (AAA: .303, 33-HR, 78-RBI).

Everything here revolves around two factors. One, how important does the Dodgers think they need to upgrade their catcher in 2015 and, two, would they rather just go out and do like they’ve done in the recent past and buy who they want.

Frankly, any deal with the Dodgers could come down to the relationship between the General Managers, which, I have no knowledge of.

Eno-Chat - 

Comment From Bomokk - Brett Gardener and a middle relief pitcher for Daniel Murphy, Jon Niese, and Eric Young Jr. Who says no? and why do they say no?

Eno Sarris: The Yanks had as much trouble on offense as with pitching, so maybe they say no. As for Mets… they need power a little more than OBP/speed, but they need offense in general more than anything, so I kinda like it.

       Mack - this was Gardner's 7th season at the MLB level and he had never hit more than 8-HR in one season (2013). Then, all of a sudden, he hits 17 this past year. His first 6 seasons... 0, 3, 5, 7, 0, 8... hmm... 

Comment From Fronk - Zach Wheeler, Daniel Murphy and D’Arnaud for Bautista, who wins?

Eno Sarris: It’s one year of Bautista so it’s not happening.

Comment From Josh - Predict the Mets OD 2016 middle infield.

Eno Sarris: Wright Flores Herrera Duda. Murphy/Niese go in a package to get something tasty for the lineup. Eh. Now that I write that. Shrugs.

Comment From Mike - Could the Mets sign Jed Lowrie?

Eno Sarris: Only if they trade Colon and/or Murphy for cost savings.

Comment From Bomok - Braves to rebuild? Can the Mets get Simmons? if so, who fr. Same Q about Gattis for LF.

Eno Sarris: Gattis is an interesting idea, they don’t seem to value D as much as some. But there’s not much projection left in Gattis. Even if Braves make moves, they’ll keep Simmons.            

          Mack - Simmons isn't going anywhere.

                                                                                      

Comment From Milby - More likely to maintain gains in 2015: Steve Pearce or Lucas Duda?

Eno Sarris: For me, it’s Duda

We’re got two teams left in our search for a 2015 SS and/or LF/RF.

Up next is the Seattle Mariners. According to Cot[i], the 2014 salaries for the Mariners is $90,239,643.

The Mariners outfield consists of Dustin Ackley ($1.7mil through 2014), Austin Jackson ($6mil, ARB-2/2014), and Michael Saunders ($2.3mil – ARB-1). Subs are Endy Chavez (2015 free agent) Chris Denorfia ($2.25mil/2014 – FA-2015).

Shortstop duty fell to Brad Miller (pre-ARB). 2B/SS Willie Bloomquist ($3mil-2015) is out for the season with knee surgery.

Prospect wise, the future is OF Alex Jackson (2017 ETA). SS Chris Taylor (PCL-AAA: .328, 5-HR) is ready to make the jump. And the guy to keep an eye on is OF Gabriel Guerrero (A+: .307, 18-HR, 96-RBI). He projects as a right fielder.

Mack Observation -  A lot of you here think the best way for Sandy Alderson to go is by dealing off individual excess pitching pieces for future high reward projected prospects. Guerrero would be perfect for this kind of trade.

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[i] http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/seattle-mariners/