3/11/15

The Morning Report 3.11.2015 | No Interest in Gee, Reynolds Catching Eyes, Pitcher's Conditioning, My Kingdom for a LOOGY

17 comments

Danny Abriano | Rising Apple The Blue Jays lost starting pitcher Marcus Stroman for the season after a freak ACL injury on Tuesday, but the club reportedly has no interest in Dillon Gee. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, Toronto doesn’t currently see Gee as a fit, and their plan at the moment is to fill Stroman’s spot internally."



(Chris Soto: Well there goes that idea. It is worth nothing that it was reported last month that the Blue Jays had already spent everything they had available in the budget for 2015 so perhaps they can't AFFORD to take on Gee's $5.3M salary. So far at this point, I get the sense that Gee may have more value to the Mets, as a injury replacement, then what he would return in a trade. There's still 3 weeks left in Spring Training though. A lot can happen in three weeks with other teams.)


Anthony DiComo | MLB.com “...With every swing he takes, [Reynolds] is nudging his way up the organizational depth chart. It's clear that he will reach Flushing at some point this summer, perhaps sooner rather than later. If Flores flounders, Reynolds is next in line to take his place. "There's a lot of things he does you like," manager Terry Collins said. "Everybody I've ever talked to that's had this guy … has said, 'Look, you're going to love this guy. He's a baseball player.' So we're going to play him this spring.""



(Chris Soto: I must admit....Reynolds is looking good so far this spring. Tom Brennan was certainly correct to buy the bandwagon early last year and now it's starting to grow. From what I have heard through the grapevines....Flores WILL be the primary starter for at least the first 8 weeks of the season. During this time Tejada WILL be the back-up and Reynolds will be assigned to AAA to play SS full-time. IF Flores is floundering, or his defense is just way to bad, AND, if Reynolds can prove that his 2014 is sustainable AND he can play adequate SS defense, then Reynolds would get the next nod to start at the MLB.)

 
Mike Vorkunov |  nj.com “The Mets dropped under .500 (Relax, it's spring and the results don't matter) with a 3-2 loss to the Braves here at Champion Stadium. Bartolo Colon is right on schedule, or so he says. The Mets starter allowed three runs in three innings, including a home run to Freddie Freeman. Colon isn't one for highs or lows and he said all is just fine as he prepares for the season after his second start of spring. "I was only scheduled to go three innings," he said through a team spokesman. "I'm right on schedule. I've got command of all my pitches. I'm hoping to go at least four innings in my next start. Overall, I feel pretty good."


(Herb G. We are seeing far too much of Mets starters fading in their final inning of work early this spring. With the Mets stress on good conditioning the past 2 years, with several players braving the wilds of Michigan to attend Mike Barwis’s fitness program a year ago, and with a much larger group taking up the Barwis regimen in St. Lucie this year, one has to wonder what effect all this fitness and conditioning talk has had on the organization. Are the players practicing what management preaches? OK. I realize that there is zero chance that Bartolo participated in Mike Barwis’s conditioning program, (to be fair, Colon was terrific in his first outing of the spring) and neither did Wheeler, to my knowledge. But I would have hoped that Mets pitchers would at least come to camp in shape to pitch their assigned number of innings in each start.)

 

Mike Puma | nypost.com   “If you are left-handed and can throw a strike, call the Mets. The team’s already precarious lefty-relief situation appeared even murkier Tuesday, when Josh Edgin was scheduled to undergo an MRI exam on his cranky elbow. After highlighting lefty relief as a need heading to the Winter Meetings, general manager Sandy Alderson took a pass on veterans.... Instead, the Mets opened camp with Edgin, Scott Rice, Jack Leathersich, Dario Alvarez and Rule 5 draft selection Sean Gilmartin. “It’s way too early to say anything about anybody,” pitching coach Dan Warthen said. “I know [Edgin] has had trouble with velocity every spring, and we’ll have it checked out, Hopefully everything is good. We had it checked out last year, everything was good then” 

(Herb G. Having passed on bringing in an experienced lefty arm this off season, the Mets will find themselves in a real pickle if Edgin‘s cranky elbow proves serious. The Rule 5 selection, Gilmartin, reached AAA in 2012 at age 22 and acquitted himself well, but failed to progress from there in the Braves organization. I am not optimistic about his ability to stick. Alvarez looks promising, but he has faced mostly younger hitters in the minors since joining the Mets, so he may not be ready to face MLB talent. On the other end of the spectrum, Leathersich has been a K machine playing with bigger boys, but has been plagued with command issues which could keep him back. Rice may be the best bet of the four contenders, if his health holds out. He was a workhorse in 2013, with surprisingly effective results, but he had a poor 2014 before going down with an ulnar nerve problem. To no one’s surprise, Mets officials said that there was absolutely no chance that LH Starter and top prospect, Steven Matz, would be a bull pen option to make up for Edgin’s absence. Gorski anyone?)

 

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Couple of thoughts:

Despite the rhetoric of other teams, Dillon Gee's value has already increased over what it was just a month ago and will only continue to rise as injuries pile up

I am not concerned about pitchers getting gassed in the third inning of their first spring training game, the whole reason why ST is a month long is because it takes players time to work into shape, so it should not be a surprise that peak conditioning has not yet been achieved.

Reynolds is starting to turn some heads for sure, but what seems to be overlooked is his past history playing 3B. He would be an ideal back up (if he cant win the starter role) because he could slot in as a backup for 3B and would almost certainly be a better fielder than Soup. If DW went down, Soup would not be the preferred option because of poor defense and the Mets would have to reconfigure their whole infield to adapt, unless of course Reynolds made the team and could man the position while everyone else could stay in their spots.

I get it, I really do, the Mets were light on LH relievers and now that Edgin is iffy, it creates a real weakness for the team, but I still don't think that 4/$36 on Miller would have been a great use of limited resources. He was dominant last year, but we are talking about a pitcher who doesn't even throw 50 inning and has not been a dominant reliever his whole career. Would I love to have him? absolutely, but not at that money because it could inhibit the team's ability in invest in other areas of higher impact. Let us also see how Miller does with the Yankees this year with an expanded role before conclusively deciding that the Mets should have made a significant investment in him

Anon Joe F

Thomas Brennan said...

It is still real early in spring training, as in Wright and Grandy have a combined 17 ABs. However, if I am Ruben Tejada, the slope may be minimal so far, but it is starting to get slippery. He is 1 for 13, no walks, while Reynolds is 6 for 12, with a walk and just a single K, and an attention-getting walk off HR. If I were Ruben, I'd start to feel ants in my pants.

Similarly, lefty hitting C Johnny Monell is 4 for 13 with a 3 run shot and just 2 Ks. Recker has put up a Recker-like stat line (1 for 11, 4 Ks). Some of Ruben's ants may be working over in Recker's direction.

Yeah, it's spring, but the Mets need productive subs - the combined 2 for 24 from offensively challenged Recker and Tejada has to make management stop and think "Do we want impotent offensive back up players on a team we hope will make playoffs?"

In leftyland, Dario Alvarez, last year's rocket from Savannah, has 3 scoreless innings with 4 Ks. He is forcing his way into serious conversation for Mets pen.

Christopher Soto said...

@Joe F.

I agree completely on the whole LOOGY thing. We are talking about a guy [Edgin] who contributed +0.3 WAR in 2014.

It is easily replaceable.

In regards to Miller....I agree with you again. YES, Miller had a strong 2014, but the 2 prior years he was worth +0.4 WAR and +0.7 WAR respectively. Projections have him worth between +0.7 and +1.5 WAR for 2015. SO for a, roughly, +1.0 Win improvement your paying $9M a year for the next 4 years? Absolutely not, especially in such a volatile position that relief pitching is.

How quickly fans forget how well the past money we spent on the bullpen worked.....Frank Francisco, Ramon Ramirez, DJ Carrasco, etc...

Ernest Dove said...

Now more then ever the Mets needs to consider fielding the best 7 arms in their bullpen regardless of righty lefty....
I assume guys like mejia familia black and parnell will be getting paid to get everybody out, including the Freeman and Harper's of the world.........
Besides, it would prevent those times where Collins calls a lefty to face the Marlins Yelich, even though everybody apparently except Terry knows that yelich hits lefties (sorry I won't let this go)

Lew Rhodes said...

Hey guys - been busy

I have a two good lefty specialists for you:

Montero
Gee

Quality arms can get both sides out

Lew Rhodes said...

Hey guys - been busy

I have a two good lefty specialists for you:

Montero
Gee

Quality arms can get both sides out

Thomas Brennan said...

Good point on Reynolds, Anon. He is competent defensively at SS, 2B, and 3B. I wonder if he played any OF at all in college? It would add to his versatility.

One other point with Reynolds vs. Tejada: Reynolds has stolen 34 of 44 in a little over 1000 minor league official at bats. Tejada is 14 of 24 in nearly 1800 at bats, so Reynolds adds a speed component, even if he is not fast.

To re-emphasize Ruben's lack of speed/hustle, he has 1 triple in those 1800 at bats. Just one. Figure they play him shallow. In big Citifield, almost impossible to have 76 doubles for career and just 1 triple, unless you're lazy.

Thomas Brennan said...

Hey Lew, welcome back. Good points, and they may just go that way. Gotta stick at least one lefty in pen - if not Edgin, Alvarez?

Zozo said...

I don't think the 3 you mentioned ever had a year like miller had last year. Yes it was a lot of money, but for the young cheap starters and the rest of the bullpen that we have it would have been money well spent. He isn't just a loogy, he can pitch to all batters. He would have gave the rest of the bullpen some much needed rest and also could have closed out games.

Lew Rhodes said...

I think Gilmartin gets a shot due to the Rule V thing - but I think with the other arms we only need 1 lefty

Let Familia and Montero loose in the 6th if needed

Anonymous said...

Huh?

Yelich Career MLB



vs RHP .295 .380 .416 .796
vs LHP .258 .324 .361 .685

Splits are the same in milb except more pronounced.

Thomas Brennan said...

To Zozo's point, I will say this: if Miller has close to a year like last year's, having him in the pen with the righties already there would have made it LETHAL.

A 2.02 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, nearly 15 Ks per 9 are "lefty Kimbrel" #'s.

I still remember 1985, mets winning 98, but missing playoffs because Cards won 101 largely due to a pen that was something like 79-0 in games they led after 7 innings. Lock down pens help win pennants.

Reese Kaplan said...

I think they muddle through with some combination of Gilmartin/Alvarez/Rice unless Edgin needs TJS. Then and only then will they seek to...what's that called again when you send a player or players from your roster to another team in exchange for a player or players on their roster? I seem to recall prior to the 2011 season our GM would do something like that occasionally.

Christopher Soto said...

@Zozo

My concern is that, so far in his career, the 2014 season for Miller is the outlier....not the norm.

While he's always K'd guys at a high rate....the BB rate was generally equally high.

In his career....As a starter he hovered around 1.8 K's per 1 BB. As a reliever it jumped to 2.7 K per 1 BB. (A very reasonable change for moving to the pen). But last year that rate spiked to a ridiculous 6.1 K to 1 BB ratio.

That's 2.5x the MLB average. In my opinion....there's going to be some regression.

TP said...

Good morning gents,
Alderson gets a "F" for his inability to add a proven legit MLB lefty to the pen. This is not about Miller, as the Mets had no shot at getting him...he turned down $40 mil from the Astros because he wanted to be near his family in spring training. It is about placing too much faith in Edgin, regardless of his health, given his limited track record and up and down career overall.

There are other legit lefties in the majors, and while they are in short supply, it just doesn't make any sense if the Mets have so much depth that they could not have found someone willing to make a deal. This, to me, is just another sign of cheapness and pretend contend. A lefty not named Miller was not going to break the bank or saddle future payrolls for a NY market team on the upswing. If the Met management was serious about contending in 2015, Edgin and the rest would be competing for the 2nd LH role in the pen.

Wilpon can visit Collins all he wants, but the "areas of concern" are not of his doing. Wilpon should be visiting his GM instead.

Lew Rhodes said...

I think Gilmartin gets a shot due to the Rule V thing - but I think with the other arms we only need 1 lefty

Let Familia and Montero loose in the 6th if needed

Richard Jones said...

Syndergaard looked really good today.
5k facing 9 batters. Threw only one or was it two balls, the rest being strikes in 2.2 innings.

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