I was on the phone with Gary Seagram earlier
this week and he rapid fired to me a bunch of topics and wanted my thoughts on
them. Some were:
Third Base – I don’t think the
Mets currently have a future successful third baseman, be it on the parent team
or in the chain. First, the minors… they traded away their only legit prospect at
this position, Jesus Baez. Past he, only Jacob Reimer comes close, but, in my
opinion, no cigar. In Queens, there are four candidates to consider… Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, and LuisAngel Acuna. I immediately rule
out Vientos, who has simply failed in all categories. Next out is Acuna, who I
see as a future utility backup at multiple positions. That leaves Baty and
Mauricio who simply have not done enough to say they own the future at the hot
corner. No, I think the future Mets third baseman currently is playing on
another club and will be obtained via free agency or a trade.
Centerfield – I believe this will
begin to focus as soon as Carson Benge hits Flushing. I also
thing that Benge has the potential and talent to someday be the best homegrown Mets
outfielder since Daryl Strawberry. This means that Nick Morabito and/or A.J. Ewing future is to either
challenge Brandon Nimmo or become the two backups. The point is… the
future of both center and the entire outfield , is very bright.
First Base – My spin is simple. I
believe every decision regarding players has been decided and executed by one
person. David Stearns, however… except for one. Juan Soto. That came from Steve Cohen. It’s my belief that
Cohen’s second player decision will be Pete Alonso. They are both very
close and Alonso is even closer with Steve’s wife, Alex. The Mets will also
continue to develop the homer machine named Ryan Clifford, but I believe Alonso
will remain a Met for at least six years, and Clifford will settle in as the
LHDH sometime next season.
Jett Williams – Yeah, I know, he’s a
shortstop that also plays in center. Well, throw both of those positions away.
Williams will be the permanent starting second baseman by the end of the 2026
season
Francisco Alvarez
–
I’ve been rough of da boy, but I’m starting to think he’s coming around. He has
hit .304/.418/.630 since returning from Syracuse. A big factor here is his chase
rate went from 29.4% before he was demoted, to 19.9% after his return. That
stat line would be one of the top in the league if it was for a full season. He’s
also becoming a better catcher defensively. He also is still around 12 years
old. So… he’s back on my keep list and, if he keeps this up, he will become one
of the top catchers in the league.
A.J. Ewing – It simply is too
early to determine if this guy is for real. Looks like a duck, but is swimming
in a very small pond right now. If he makes it to Queens, his only path to
center is if someone is traded or goes down with an injury, so his future as a
Met looks to be in a utility role. Or… he could me a featured addition to a
trade package in the off season to get a real deal third baseman.
2026 – This is simply. The current team is the team that will determine whether they play in the playoffs. There is no help coming from their system and this is not trading time. So, you play with the cards you are dealt with. They have enough talent to go all the way and the distance between them and the Phillies will be determined in the seven games they have left to play each other. My only hope is Mendoza grows a pair and his rotation pitch in the 100-120 range. It’s August. It’s time to let the reigns go
Pitch Profiler @pitchprofiler
Nolan McLean’s rapid rise to the big leagues
culminates this Saturday, when he’s set to make his debut!
McLean’s rapid rise to the big leagues culminates this Saturday, when he’s set to make his debut!
Thomas
Nestico @TJStats
Nolan McLean gets the call!
The Mets
#1 Pitching prospect has dominated MiLB this season to the tune of a 2.45 ERA
across 113.2 IP. His calling card is a nasty sweeper and versatile arsenal. He
has taken massive strides with his command and projects to be a mid-rotation
starter
Pete Alonso
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/mets-pete-alonso-hr-record-contract-extension-news/
Over the
next four seasons, there is no hitter the Mets could acquire (or produce) that
is more likely to hit 35 home runs and drive in 100 runs a season than Pete
Alonso. A better first baseman than he gets credit for, Alonso has gotten to
the point of being underrated.
Home runs
and RBIs are not valued the way WAR is nowadays, but those numbers end up
showing up pretty big when it comes to deciding baseball games. If you remove
the defense and just focus on the offensive component to fWAR, Alonso is ranked
No. 20 in all of baseball since 2021.
Defensively,
Alonso has always graded poorly by the metrics, but he plays every day, is far
from a liability at the position, and is actually rather good around the bag.
He doesn’t have the most range, and his throws can sometimes be an adventure,
but he’s sure-handed and great at saving his infielders when it comes to
scooping throws from the dirt.
Is Pete
Alonso ever going to win that Gold Glove he has long-said he is after? Probably
not.
But too often Alonso gets dismissed based on his WAR, due to metrics that are largely out of his control. Alonso hits the ball harder than most, plays every day, and is comfortable playing in a very difficult market that values its stars. Locking him up should be a no-brainer.
Can’t
anyone here hit .300?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6550184/2025/08/13/mlb-history-august-2025-season/
Fewest in
one league — The modern-era record for fewest .300 hitters in a season just in
the National League is three. And it’s not as if that happened in 1906. That
record was set in 2022 and matched last year. See a trend there?
But the NL
is down to exactly two at the moment: Freddie
Freeman (.304) and Xavier Edwards (.304). And both of them had averages below .300 as
recently as last week! (Then there’s Will Smith, who is at .312 but about 30
plate appearances short of qualifying.)
That means
the NL has a chance to break or equal the record for fewest .300 hitters in any
league in NL/AL history.
2025-26 Free Agent Starting Pitchers
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/top-free-agent-starting-pitchers/
Potential
Ace
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
Age in
2026: 32
2025
Stats: 23 GS, 145.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 8.96 K/9
2025
Salary: $18 million
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres
Age in
2026: 30
2025
Stats: 24 GS, 129.1 IP, 4.52 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 11.76 K/9
2025
Salary: $13.75 million
Michael King, San Diego Padres
Age in
2026: 31
2025
Stats: 11 GS, 57.2 IP, 2.81 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 10.14 K/9
2025
Salary: $15 million mutual option, $3.75 million buyout
Shane Bieber, Toronto Blue Jays
Age in
2026: 31
2025
Stats: N/A
2025
Salary: $16 million player option
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
Age in
2026: 33
2025
Stats: 6 GS, 35.1 IP, 2.29 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 0.65 WHIP, 11.46 K/9
2025
Salary: $20 million mutual option, $10 million buyout
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age in
2026: 30
2025
Stats: 24 GS, 139 IP, 5.31 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 8.42 K/9
2025
Salary: $13.5 million
The Top 30 Mets Pitching
Prospects
1. Jonah Tong
FF: 70/75 | CB: 60/60 | FC: 50/50 | CH: 45/50 | Control:
40/50 | Arsenal: 55/60 | Uniqueness: 70 | FV: 60
A shorter pitcher with an over-the-top delivery, Tong
generates above-average extension and excels at hiding the ball. His fastball
features distinctive cut ride with 20.6 inches of induced vertical break (IVB)
from a 5.9-foot release, complemented by a curveball that has 18 inches of
vertical drop and spins close to 3,000 RPM. These traits underscore his high
uniqueness grade, hitters struggle with his unique profile. The fastball is
already well above average and has shown further potential, sitting around 94
mph in AA and reportedly touching 99 mph in spring training, giving it true 80
grade potential.
His fastball, gyro slider, and curveball combination alone could effectively challenge MLB hitters, but Tong is also developing a changeup. Although significant depth shouldn't be expected, his limited usage of the pitch last year in A-ball showed roughly a two-degree vertical approach angle (VAA) separation from his fastball. He could further experiment with a sinker or alternative changeup grips like a split or kick variation. Concerns regarding reliever and injury risks, mostly due to his size and extreme mechanics slightly temper his overall future value ceiling.
Just
Baseball – Updated Top
100 Prospects – 7-29
https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/top-100-mlb-prospects/#entry-112912
19. Carson Benge – OF – New York Mets
Height/Weight:
6’2″, 185 | Bat/Throw: L/R | 1st Round
(19), 2024 (NYM) | ETA: 2026
HIT PLATE DISC. GAME POWER RUN FIELD FV
50/55 50/55 45/55 55/55 45/55 55+
Much like
his OSU teammate Nolan McLean, Benge was a legitimate two-way talent for the
Cowboys. After a big freshman season, Benge tapped into much more power in his
draft-eligible sophomore year, making it clear his future was in the batter’s
box and there might be room for even more impact.
Hitting
A noisy
operation in the box, Benge starts with an open stance and rocks into his back
side with a big leg kick and barrel tip. He starts it all very early with
impressive lower half control and balance that likely spills over from his
experience on the mound.
After
struggling to elevate in 2023, Benge slashed his ground ball rate by more than
10%, more than doubling his home run total to 18 while increasing his slug by
130 points. Upon shifting his focus to the batters box, Benge has tapped into
much more raw power, posting above average exit velocities in High-A.
Benge
could still benefit from getting the ball in the air more frequently and his
moves may be difficult to time up against upper-level pitching. He has great
hand-eye with impressive swing variance to get to pitches in tough spots.
A patient
hitter, Benge has continued to draw walks at a high clip as a pro and can be
difficult to put away. With the added raw power, Benge’s ceiling has been
pushed a bit higher, with 25+ home runs not completely out of the realm of
possibility, but at least the chance to hit at least 20 with plenty of doubles.
Defense/Speed
He
predominantly played right field in his collegiate career, but he looks like he
can play up the middle. Though he’s closer to an average straight-line runner,
Benge’s athleticism paired with the great reads he gets and efficient routes
give him a good shot of becoming an average center fielder. If he moves off of
the middle, he would grade as an easy plus defender in a corner where his plus
arm would play well.
Outlook
Benge is a
unique athlete who may just be scraping the surface of the player he can
ultimately be. Early returns in 2025 have Benge on an upward trajectory as he
has clearly added impact and made a seamless transition to High-A Brooklyn
where some hitters can get frustrated by the ball flight. He has a wiry build
and could probably add some more strength without losing speed and It’s not
uncommon for two-way players to add mass upon shifting their focus from the
mound. Added strength could also facilitate a simpler operation in the box.
Benge has the potential to be an everyday center fielder with average or better
tools across the board.
20 comments:
ANGRY MIKE
Great stuff Mack! Glad to see you coming around on Álvarez, personally I think our future 3B is already in the system, but a few years away. Elian Pena looks the part and his LH bat from the position would be a nice complement to the others. Junior Caminero would be my second prediction, as he’s good friends with Soto and could be potentially become available via trade prior to hitting free agency in 2029.
Lots that is good here.
Phew! Reimer did snap out of his extended hitting time in Funky Town with 4 hits last night, but made one-two-three errors.
Now hear this! If you invest multi-years in aging Pete, the fences MUST come in or be ready for a lousy ROI, Uncle Steve.
Pena is my opening day 2026 SS. WHY. I am crazy, that’s why.
Pena is too far away for me to wrap my head around
I need someone for the next three years
Pete has a distance problem?
You fence loco
The Mets future third baseman is a toolsy player working on his chase rate with Juan Soto. Mauricio is a five tool player and I find it to be just stupidity that they went and got Mullins and clogged the system. It was fine the way it was and Mullins won’t be enough of a difference. Jesus Baez looked like a plump sausage at just 20 years old…. That’s not good for a professional athlete, plus there were concerns on his work ethic before he got traded. Also, when Peña comes up, Lindor can move over to 3B.
Stearns will stick by his guns and not give a starting pitcher a long term deal. He will bring up Sprout and McLean, he has Manaea, Senga, Montas, Peterson, Scott and Megill as starting pitching options next year. After seeing how pitchers break down, I wonder how many teams will give those deals.
Ewing will be Nimmo’s replacement. I have seen a little bit of Ewing and his bat speed is quick. He has broken out with a vengeance this year.
Cohen owns the team, but he has made more mistakes than good interfering and hired Stearns for a reason. I don’t see Alonso in a Mets uniform next year.
You could be right about Alonso. Other teams are going to offer huge deals to him to jump ship and there is nothing left for him to prove for the Mets.
He has already won the most Mets HR leader title
Makes me feel good when my thoughts are mostly in line with Mack’s. I am hoping by the end of 2026 the Mets have their CFer in Benge, 2nd In Williams. I hope either Ewing or Morabito will be the fourth outfielder soon after (high average with speed). I think Reimer can be a utility player. Like that Alvarez has elevated his game.
Not much interested in free agent pitchers. They have a lot invested in pitchers returning next season and the pipeline looks pretty good.
Not sure I like Alonso at six years. Maybe four?
Baty or Mauricio at third? One has to step up over the next six weeks and say that it is his. If not, go shopping.
Right now Baty is a far better player than Mauricio. Thought Senga should have faced Albies. Not the right spot for Rodgers.
Here's some out of the box thinking. The Met's future 3B is LINDOR. He will move to 3B when Pena arrives.
Mauricio is not a 5 tool player because he is a below average fielder. He also is a terrible right handed hitter. Next year Baty, Vientos and Mauricio will split time at 3B/DH.
CF will be manned by Benge at some point next year, until they move Soto to DH, moving him to RF. Morabito will become the CF.
Williams will eventually become the everyday 2B and Acuna will replace McNeil as the super utility player.
I still haven't made up my mind on Alverez, but I am glad to see him doing better offensively. Although as soon as he hit the 2 HR's the next day he started swinging crazy again. We really need him moving forward.
Mack you are 100 Percent correct. The Mets do not have a 3b base solution.
I do hate that we even have to speak of solutions when we should be concentrating on winning but we have been taking more water than the titanic.
My thoughts are :
Is Munetaka Murakami a legitimate 3b option. I don't need gold glove but he needs to be at least league avg.
If so then things are easy. We get Murakami and he doesn't cost us a draft pick
Second I would sign Josh Naylor. He will be cheaper than Alonso and the combination of Murakami and Naylor should be greater than Alonso and baby Mets.
We need to break up the fab 4 and really these 5.
Alonso Lindor Nimmo McNiel Alvarez
2 and dare i say 3 need to go. Alonso is the easiest to leave though he is the most productive.
Nimmo is who i want gone the most. I hated the contract and while Nimmo has been a great guy and a good representation of a Met, he doesn't have the good to merit the contract and just hasn't performed at the highest of levels. He was paid as CF and he is just a Below avg LF. Over paid at 20million a year but is he Over paid at 16Million?
Pay 4 million a year on that contract and hopefully someone will bite. I mean good gosh Correa was moved and his contract is awful.
McNiel of all of them I would keep because of versatility but If the kids can play he can go as well.
Mack your way to positive about Morabito.
In my option, he screams 4th outfielder and while i think that is valuable out side, of steals he doesn't have 1 single trait that scream great.
No arm and you cant steal 1b, No power, and not exactly a 310 hitter, and I don't see 90 walks. He replaces Tyrone Taylor and that is just salary relief.
He just need to take the little opportunity he gets and make the most of it (a la Justin Turner) because he wont move the needle in any trade (and if no one else is asking for him why should be we be so high on him)
How about McNeil at first base next year until Clifford is ready? Pete goes, and the youth movement begins.
Sproat was lousy last night in AAA. I guess MLB knows that and dropped him out of its top 100.
I wonder if Morabito bunts at all. Good bunters boost their OBP.
Pete has no distance problem now, but if his bat slows like everyone else’s does in their 30s, several cheapies a year for aging Pete would make a long term deal look smart.
So McNiel just doesnt Have the Power for 1b.
Now get me Kyle tucker and then let one of the Baby Mets Man 1B and see if they can hit enough.
Otherwise another option is just Murakami at 1B or we could try for a 2/3 year deal for Cody Bellinger to be our 1b and emergency OF
there are things we can try but a shake up with the core is necessary
Morabito is .302/.390 the past 3 seasons, and not terrible overall power, 116 steals in 267 games (81%), and doesn’t make any outfield errors. He is also super fast, compensating for his so-so arm with ground coverage. This year, he hit .210 thru May 10 but well over .300 since. I see the glass half full. His real test will be, can he add HR power in hitter friendlier Syracuse in 2026? I say he will add Taylor or McNeil-like HR power.
Shake up that core. Winning is great, consistently failing to win is a clarion call for a shake up.
In fact, if they don’t really turn it around this weekend, fire Mendoza. Shake it up NOW. 2025 can’t just be tossed into the trash bin.
Has anyone seen Carlos Beltran lately?
Murakami is. Stearns spent 2 days watching him play
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