Morning Thoughts
David Peterson proved once again on Tuesday that he is currently the ace of the Mets rotation. He will be back to head up the 2026 Mets rotation, along with Sean Manaea (contract through 2027) and Kodai Senga (contract through 2027). Nolan McLean isn’t going anywhere, leaving the fifth slot still to be determined. I have said many times that I believe that Brandon Sproat is destined to become a member of the Mets bullpen, but he put himself back into consideration here after a superlative outing on Tuesday. Of course, this will all change when Jonah Tong comes to town.
Sound good? Well, it's not. Both Senga and Manaea simply can not hold a lead anymore
The powers to be have to realize soon that old pitchers with multiple year contracts have become the death of this team. Both the rest of this season and 2026 are in serious transition going the wrong way.
The youth movement needs to begin NOW if this team wants to make the playoff.
Don't care about money eaten.
DO SOMETHING!!!
The placing of Francisco Alvarez on the IL caused some
changes behind the system’s plates. Defensive leader Hayden Senger was dispatched to the
parent team and Onix Vega was promoted to Senger’s Syracuse slot from Brooklyn.
I was hoping to see Kevin Parada here, who has been
hitting well in Binghamton over the past 30 days. Are they trying to hide him
from the Rule V draft that’s coming up? Don’t they realize that nothing is
hidden in this game anymore?
There is considerable positive production that just finished the DSL season this year, in particular, these four that I call for to be promoted stateside in the spring. They are:
SS Elian Pena – 17/yrs - .292/.421/.528/.949,
9-HR, 33-RBI, 21-SB
C Yovanny Rodriguez – 18/yrs - .331/.446/.493/.939, 2-HR, 26-RBI
LHP Osiris Calvo – 21/yrs - 5-1, 2.15, 0.98, 43-IP, 45-K
OF Heriberto Rincon – 19/yrs - .314, .821-OPS,
2-HR, 27-RBI, 34-SB
There could be more but these four have
definitely earned a stateside promotion. Especially Calso, due to his age.
At first glance, if you check the
current stat line of the Mets “ace”, Kodai Senga, it looks pretty
decent… 2.7-WAR, 7-4, 2.35. Many teams would kill for an ace with these
numbers. But, looking deeper, we see this:
March/April: 5-ST, 1.26
May: 6-ST, 1.89
June: 2-ST, 0.77
At this point, Senga had the lowest
starter ERA (1.47) in the league.
Then, on June 14th, Senga was
shut down with a Grade 1 hamstring strain that happened when he covered first
base. No biggie, right? A couple of weeks of rest and rehab and he will be back
to normal.
He made a rehab start on July 5th for
Binghamton… 3.2-IP, 4-R.
So much for that process.
From there, his stat lines for the Mets
go like this:
July: 3-ST, 5.25
August: 3-ST, 4.50
His last five starts produced only one
game that he pitched more than 5.0 innings. Total stats were: 22-IP, 14-ER,
15-BB.
So, what are we learning here?
First, the fans should stop bitching
when rehab schedules for pitchers seem longer than the Bataan Death March.
And two, whoever decided on this course
of action should be designated for assignment.
Lastly I WILL BE OFFLINE ALL DAY TODAY. I hope you enjoy the site today and, please, comment away.
Mets Analytics @MetsAnalytics
Here's how Bryan Woo has pitched to Ronny Mauricio today through 2 at-bats. No, there's no filter on high fastballs.
4 foul balls
3 swinging strikes
2 balls taken
2 strikeouts!
Ronny Mauricio
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6556105/2025/08/19/mlb-power-rankings-brewers-pirates/
Third base
has been a revolving door of young Mets. None of them has been an individual
standout, but they’ve all kept the team above water at the position (they’re
almost perfectly middle-of-the-pack in third base WAR, which isn’t awful for a
team without a set third baseman). Ronny Mauricio, who debuted in 2023 but spent all of
last year on the IL, has been especially good against righties while playing
strong defense. He has not been a singular difference-maker, but he’s been a
nice piece of the puzzle.
TJStats -
MLB Top 100 Prospects: August 2025
30) Jonah Tong - RHP - NYM
The Good
Tong has
one of the funkiest deliveries in baseball with his extreme over the top
delivery. The fastball is easily plus-plus given its extreme ride and improved
velocity. The growth of his changeup has propelled him into mid-rotation
potential.
The Bad
The
command and lack of chase are glaring concerns. He has shied away from his
breaking balls this season, which likely need to return as he tackles AAA.
Daniel
Wexler @WexlerRules
Mets have
signed RHP Dalton Mall. Made 1 appearance for the Rays
organization in 2024
Dalton
Henry Mall, was born August 27, 1999, in
Overland Park, Kansas
A
right-handed pitcher, Mall stands 6'3" and weighs 225 lbs.
He
played college baseball at Bradley University and Fort Scott Community College,
after a high school career at Shawnee Mission East High School.
Mall
was signed by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2023 but was released.
His
pitching repertoire included a fastball reaching 89 mph with sinking action, a
slider with slurve-like movement at 77-78 mph, and a curveball at 72 mph,
thrown from a high three-quarters arm slot.
He
was noted for a smooth, repeatable delivery and athletic frame, with potential
for increased velocity as he developed
Jim
Koenigsberger @Jimfrombaseball
"If
Jesus Christ were to show up with his old baseball glove, some guys wouldn't
vote for him.
He dropped
the cross three times, didn't he?"
Dick Young on Willie
Mays not receiving a
unanimous Hall of Fame vote!
SNY
Mets @SNY_Mets
Brandon Sproat has been dealing over his last nine
starts for Triple-A Syracuse
Pitch
Profiler @pitchprofiler
Paul Gervase is back in the bigs
Daniel
Wexler @WexlerRules
R.J. Gordon with an absolute gem. Gordon threw 6.1
no hit innings before allowing a single. He finished with 7 scoreless, 2 hits,
0 runs 2 walks 7 k’s. His era on the season is now 3.15 (3.29 post promotion).
Gordon
throws from a three-quarters arm slot with a drop-and-drive delivery, which is
clean and lacks major injury or control red flags.
His
pitch mix includes:
Fastball: Sits in the low-90s,
occasionally touching 97 MPH post-surgery. It features natural cutting action,
making it particularly effective against left-handed hitters.
Kick Changeup: Recently developed and
considered his best pitch, the kick changeup has become a key weapon, feeding
into his post-surgery mechanics. It’s a pitch he started refining after joining
the Mets, inspired by offerings like Clay Holmes’ changeup.
Slider: Complements his fastball and
changeup, adding variety to his arsenal.
Curveball: Another secondary pitch that
enhances his ability to keep hitters off balance.
Daniel
Wexler @WexlerRules
ERA
obviously isn’t the end all be all but Franklin
Gomez now has a combined
*1.88* era over 67 innings with St. Lucie and Brooklyn. Gomez
has quietly been on quite the run. Last 35 innings 34 k’s, 25 hits: *4* er. Gomez won’t legally be able to
drink until next July.
15 comments:
Tong is better than the average bear. I love classic basic stats. He is a 10.
Peterson is my ace. Since he returned from hip surgery, 265 innings, 18-8, 3.05.
Senga in nearly 2 full years has given the Mets 10 excellent weeks and 7several lousy weeks, and missed 30 weeks.
Manaea wishes he could go as deep into starts as Sid Fernandez. Sid always wished he could go as deep into his starts as Doc and Ronny.
If I had to pick a starting staff for next year, I’d go with McLean, Tong, Sproat, Peterson, and Manaea. The starting staff, other than Holmes, the injured Canning, and Peterson, has been MIA this year.
Holmes to pen, and as 6th starter.Montas to replace Stanek in pen, or get traded, and Montas dealt by deadline. Santucci (5 scoreless last night in AA) added to rotation at trade deadline next season, with Manaea traded at deadline. Get-under the cap in 2026.
Manea would’ve been fine to bring back - but paying him “Ace” money doesn’t make him an “Ace”.
We essentially extended Marte’s bad contract by 2 years with Manea, while adding an additional 10+ million annually.
I’d like to know who else was offering him 25M annually.
It looks like the Oliver Perez extension all over again but multiplied by 350%.
If Manea & Holmes prevent us from extended Peterson, that could be an epic disaster that eerily resembles how we lost Wheeler and replaced him with Porcello and Wacha.
Trade him and Holmes for whatever we can get this winter - preferably some high-octane RP prospects in low-A who might move quickly.
Or trade one of them to the Whitesox for Bryan Hudson and eat a ton of money, CWS can then flip either of them for a heavier prospect return at the deadline if they perform close to their peak level.
McLean - Sproat - Tong - Senga - Peterson & then Thornton by June after he crushes AAA. Santucci might be ready but I think he needs 1 more year to build up his arm strength to put him in the clear for pushing 180 IP. He was a 2-way player at Duke and is built closer to Tong then he is McLean.
Tong’s Curveball was generating a 48% whiff rate in 2024 and he used it heavily in the start of 2025 when he was generating 48-49% whiff rates at AA. The only thing he needs to do to it is learn to increase the velocity from 74-76 into the 80-82 range. It might cost him some of 60-65 inches of drop but thats fine. Its spin rate is 2700+ which is slightly above average.
The slider is the next pitch to get a drastic makeover.
Mike, the Mets could suddenly awaken, and we’d both adapt, but I am open to trading Manaea and, to a lesser degree, Holmes. Tong can work on his curve and slider this winter, but I want him as one of the 5 starters in 2026.
Don’t forget about Christian Scott during the back half. Wenninger too.
The starters done have enough muscular endurance to go deeper into games this season. Period. How does that happen in a sophisticated analytical organization!?
Senga should be healthy, and we have seen what healthy Senga is like. Take out Tong.
Manaea was signed deep into the winter. He wasn’t like Montas that they completely flubbed in. Plus, last year Manaea was going seven and eight innings regularly. And 33 in pitching years isn’t old. They don’t have the prime year curve that position players do.
On Mauricio: we have another player that make a percentage of the national GDP that chases high fastballs. Mauricio needs to play and has more talent than anyone. You don’t throw that away. I’d rather see him trying than Mullins. Put Squirrel in the middle of the grass. Stearns had a bad year. Stuff happens.
McNeil has a lame arm, Gus. Can’t see him in CF for that reason. I remain baffled why the Mets did not give 100 games in CF to Mauricio during his Long time in the minors. THAT would have been a good fit vs. righties, and Taylor vs. lefties.
Two guys for mid-to-late 2026. Remember, Scott is winless in the majors. Senger did his first RBI while expectedly going 0 for 3.
I’d love to see the major injury rate for pitchers over 30 vs. 25-29 yrs of age. Also, the drop in velocity.
To me the question is are we going to extend Peterson, If so we should do it now. If not I am sure a Lefty can demand a ton in a trade. But I am tired of having players lead up to free agency and we over pay or pay for terms longer than desired.
Senga at 15 million seems reasonable to keep but again is he more valuable as a trade piece. Would he be more valuable in a trade to say a team like Baltimore for 2 or 3 players that will equal out greater.
Excited for the DSL kids to come stateside and see what they are really made of...
we need a superstar to be developed.
Ronnie may never find it but as long as he is cheap he may be attractive both as a asset or a player on our roster.
We will not see Tong until August 15th
I think we have seen the model Stern will be using for all his prized prospects. they will each be used to try to earn future draft picks so their Rookie eligibility will be protected over winning...
August 15?
Senga needs to be kept in a protective cocoon. When he gets hurt, his time to get right again is quite extensive.
I’d extend Peterson at a reasonable price.
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