BUT FIRST…METS WIN….THE BATS ARE HUMMING. 13-3??
- Could they possibly sneak back into the division race?
- Sweep the last two games v. Philly, and let’s find out.
ARTICLE TIME:
When one is a GM and is looking to build a team, it helps to know trends involving players as they age.
Fangraphs (Bill Petti and Jeff Zimmerman), back in 2012, did an analysis of pitcher velocity, and strikeout, reduction by age.
Of course any one pitcher can deviate, perhaps sharply, from that overall chart.
Simply, some pitchers will age more slowly, and others will age more quickly.
The article writers essentially concluded the following:
“Generally, pitchers see their velocity peak in their early 20s and steadily decline by a full mile per hour by age 26. After that, velocity drops more sharply and continues a steep decline into a pitcher’s 30s. Strikeout rates were tied to velocity, but not as closely after age 26.
“This indicates that those pitchers who survive into their late 20s and early 30s are less reliant on their velocity (and, most likely, their fastball) for strikeouts. A pitcher’s walk rate shows a some improvement through age 25 (due to starters), and then begins its decline.”
Probably a lot of that has to do with wear and tear. Jake deGrom was clearly a contrarian. His velocity picked up with age, into his 30s, as he was an astute student of his own mechanics. But his injuries spiked as he aged and as he tested the outer limits of his physical red line, also.
Anyway, check out this article and its charts, from Fangraphs in 2012. You’ll probably find it very interesting.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pitcher-aging-curves-starters-and-relievers/
Monster Baseball in 2024 meanwhile made the following statement:
“Pitchers…experience their prime between ages 27 and 29, with varying metrics reaching optimal levels during this period. Walk rate is lowest at 25-27, BABIP is best between 20-22, home run rate hits its lowest point from 20-26, and strikeout rates peak between 22-28.”
They added:
“Turning from the beginning of a pro baseball career to the heart of it, MLB has an aging curve where peak physical skills and ability intersect between age 27 and age 29. The rapid decline for pitchers and hitters begins at age 30.”
It seems there’s a higher velocity of skill losses (and breakdowns) from both hitters & hurlers as they age, at similar ages. Think “Montas”.
Let’s move on.
JOHN BAY POTENTIAL
A reader commented on Saturday that undrafted John Bay (6’1”, 220 righty slugger) had briefly played with Carson Benge and Nolan McLean in Oklahoma in college before transferring to Austin Peay. Nice trio.
Over the last two seasons, OF/CF John Bay hit like the dickens at Peay:
.360/.490/.790 over those two seasons. Not shabby at all. Ruthian.
In 433 official at bats, 36 doubles, 46 HRs, 138 RBIs and 82 walks. 23 SB.
A negative being a strikeout every 5 plate appearances.
And having just turned 24 years old late this spring.
But the Mets signed the undrafted Bay, despite his age, and through Friday in Full A St Lucie, his pro debut? .340/.484/.560.
16 RBIs in 50 official at bats in 16 games. 14 combined walks and HBPs.
And yes, 19 Ks in 64 PAs.
No adjustment to pro ball necessary.
A+ rating on his early pro days.
Seems like a highly worthwhile signing to me. I do not care about his age.
I like ferocious hitters. I hope I am not the only one here, after seeing soft hitters on the Mets and in the Mets minors over the years.
John Bay, you have my attention, sir.
Why not make your Mets debut in 2027?
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE
My guy Randy Guzman was back from his HBP injury and went 2 for 5 with 3 RBIs for the Lucies on Sunday.
50 RBIs in just 215 at bats in 2025? Whew.
And how about Binghamton on Sunday?
AJ Ewing is disrespecting AA with 3 hits, a walk, and 3 more steals yesterday. 65 steals in 108 games, and .314/.409/.436.
Is he ready? I dunno.
But I’M READY to see AJ play ball in AOC’s congressional district in Queens.
His teammate, Rhymin’ Reimer, continues to scald, with 3 for 5, with a HR and triple - he has a bodacious 67 RBIs in 390 at bats. Sizzling hot.
And KP Parada had two hits, including a 10th HR. He’s hot!
Best hitting catcher in the Mets system since mid-May, hands down.
Except for Luis Torrens last night,of course.
Yes, those 3 dudes were blasting - on the road, of course, where else?
As Brooklyn has promoted the likes of the 5 rippers, AJ, Rhymer, Benge, D’Andre, and Suero, and traded Jesus Baez, it is no surprise that in 21 August games, rushed Brooklyn hitters are hitting .200 with a mere 5 HRs.
THIS JUST IN…SPROAT FALLS IN MOAT:
In arguably the most important minor league outing of his pro career on Sunday, with a call up a real possibility if he was sharp, Sproat instead slipped and fell into the moat. We all shed crocodile tears.
It wasn’t the splash we were hoping for.
In relief, 3.2 IP, 7 hits, 7 runs.
All ya can do is swim out and keep trying. Let’s go, Brandon.
GARRETT TO I.L.
We Mets fans are headed to theI.L.L. All these injuries are making me sick.
16 comments:
David Adler @_dadler
The *average* MLB righty now throws 95 mph on the dot
Still a little crazy to think about even though it's been coming for a while
John Bay -
I tried to get his old manager on the phone but failed. Wanted to ask him what his spin was on no one drafting Bay.
You may be right about the strikeout thing but you would think a 10K bonus offer for a late round pick would have been proper for this kind of stat line
Well, Bay didn’t apparently get drafted in2024 either. Mysterious. Happy he is rocking. And that Guzman has 50 ribbies in 215 at bats.
95 MPH and sweepers, and fingers crossed that arms don’t blow up.
Tyrone Taylor is HOT. Torrens hitting. Mullins hitting. Vientos hitting. Too late? Not for a Wild Card.
31 to go
3 up in loss column
Always play who is hot
Torrens
Taylor in CF
Baty and Vientos both in lineup
McNeil too
Marte
Lindor
Still think this will all come down to the three games left in Cincinnati
One good sign. Everyone but Pete has heated up. OBPs last 7 days?
Mullens .541
Taylor. .500
Marte. .500
Soto. .457
McNeil. .440
Vientos .419
Nimmo .417
Baty. .393
Lindor. .389
Torrens .313
Senger. .214
Alonso. .176 (hurry and extend him!)
In 77 combined at bats, the most dangerous 4 hitters in baseball - McNeil, Vientos, Senger, Torrens - have 30 RBIs in the past 7 days.
All that awakened hitting is a good sign.
Such a pleasure to watch a game when everyone is contributing. They even hit with men in scoring position.
A question for those who know our minor league system. I know Mack said Reimer treats his glove like a decoration but is there anyway someone can teach him to play 1B.
His hit tool reminds me of a young David Wright. We already have several DH types. I'd hate to trade away a good hitter.
means nothing unless big rotation changes continue to me implimented
Senga needs to go to the pen for the rest of the season.
He needs to be replaced by Brandon Sproat (forget that last relief outing. He is best suited as the next starter up)
Sean Manaea needs to also go to the pen
His replacement would be Jonah Tong
actually Joe, I have a DEEP DIVE coming up on Sunday that takes a deep look at his current defensive game.
the boy is REALLY stepping up with a glove on his hand as well as knocking the snot off the ball
That's great to hear. Thanks for the feedback.
Remember David Wright really improved his defense from when he first started. This kid gives me a D. Wright vibe.
Reimer does not have Wright’s speed. If he had not missed almost all of 2024 with that torn hammy, he would be totally in play for 2026. But he is cooking now. We must remember how sucky Brooklyn is for power hitters.
Move the fences in. Binghamton too…5 feet or so. I’d love to see him go to AAA, but they won’t gut Binghamton’s playoff team.
I remember a few months ago we all hoped Senga wouldn't hit his pitch count and then be able to opt out at seasons end but seeing him suck so bad how about us opting out?
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