Morning Thoughts
Tylor Megill went to town on Sunday. He started a rehab game in Binghamton and posted a stat line of: 3.1-ER, 0-ER, 9-K. This makes the likes of Jonah Tong and Nolan McLean look anemic. The Mets are going to have to make another decision soon about this “starter”. Megill replaced Frankie Montas, who was banished to the pen. What should they do if Tylor keeps these kind of stats being tossed in his remaining rehab games. Who is the next current starter to go or should he join Montas in the bullpen? Decisions, decisions.
There has been a fair amount of pushback by readers about who should play third base for the Mets in 2026. I stand by my thoughts outlined in last Sunday’s Observation post. I have no confidence that Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, or Ronny Mauricio can be the solution here. Vientos is too spotty, Baty comes close but no banana, and Mauricio can only hit one kind of pitcher and has no plate discipline at all. I would love to have the person I have called for before he signed a three-year deal with Boston… Alex Bregman, but he has one year left, but he can opt out at the end of this season. It would cost around $45mil a year for someone that is currently living in rarified air (a .300 hitter in the majors), so I would have to pick him or Pete Alonso to throw this kind of money at. I planned on making a run at Japanese free agent Munetake Murakami, but I have second thoughts after reviewing his medical history (arthroscopic surgery in right elbow, rib injury). Do I try to talk Scott Boros into a 5-6 year deal for Bregman and just let the above-mentioned trio continue to fight it out? Do I search for a new solution? Fluid.
I continue to be thrilled with the Nolan McLain promotion, but I want
to see two more in the next week. There is only so much time left for minor
league pitching prospects to get initial experience at the level they will
start off playing next season. Syracuse is currently operating with two
prospects (Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat) and only two more legit
starters. Jack Wenninger has 22 starts under his belt for AA-Binghamton.
At a 2.71-ERA. What’s a boy got to do to get promoted? The other starter that
needs to be promoted post haste is Noah Hall, who has 18 starts for
Brooklyn, producing a 2.18-ERA. Hall needs to become a Rumble Pony.
Thomas
Nestico @TJStats
David Peterson stifled the Nationals today as he
struck out 10 over 8.0 IP
His
changeup was particularly dominant, returning a nutty 53.8 Chase% and 58.3
Whiff%
Mets
Player Development @MetsPlayerDev
What a night for Jonathan
Santucci
5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 11 K for a new career high!
-Santucci
is currently pitching in AA-Binghamton, along with the likes of Jack Wenninger, Brandon Girton, and R.J. Gordon (Zach Thornton on IL). AAA-Syracuse
is currently operating with only four legit starters (Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Brandon Waddell, Justin Hagenman), so
there is an opening for one of the Bing starter to fill.
MLB
negotiating with Netflix, ESPN, NBC, Apple
Major
League Baseball executives are in negotiations that could result in new
broadcast packages and relationships with Netflix, ESPN, NBC and Apple,
according to officials briefed on the discussions.
NBC/Peacock
and Apple TV+ are considered the top contenders for “Sunday Night Baseball” and
first-round playoff games, while ESPN could add weekday games and a bigger
daily digital presence, the officials said. Netflix has emerged as the
potential Home Run Derby destination.
Me?
Peacock
and Apple TV does nothing for me. I subscribe to neither. ESPN and Netflix
would be great for me.
You?
2026 Free Agent Starting
Pitchers: Back of the Rotation
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/top-free-agent-starting-pitchers/
LHP
Patrick Corbin, Texas Rangers
RHP
Charlie Morton, Detroit Tigers
RHP Dustin
May, Boston Red Sox
RHP Walker
Buehler, Boston Red Sox
LHP
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
RHP Justin
Verlander, San Francisco Giants
RHP Max
Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays
RHP Kyle
Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels
RHP
Michael Lorenzen, Kansas City Royals
LHP Tyler
Anderson, Los Angeles Angels
LHP Andrew
Heaney, Pittsburgh Pirates
RHP Nick
Martinez, Cincinnati Reds
RHP
Michael Soroka, Chicago Cubs
RHP
Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles
LHP Nestor
Cortes Jr., San Diego Padres
RHP Jon
Gray, Texas Rangers
LHP Martin
Perez, Chicago White Sox
RHP Marcus
Stroman, FA
RHP Kenta
Maeda, New York Yankees
RHP German
Marquez, Colorado Rockies
RHP Cal
Quantrill, Miami Marlins
RHP Erick
Fedde, Atlanta Braves
RHP Chris
Paddack, Detroit Tigers
RHP Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals
RHP Alex
Cobb, Detroit tigers
LHP Kyle
Hart (club option), San Diego Padres
Pitchers
With Options Unlikely to Hit the Market
LHP Chris
Sale, Atlanta Braves
RHP Freddy
Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
LHP Shota
Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
RHP Kodai
Senga, New York Mets
RHP
Frankie Montas, New York Mets
RHP Jack
Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
RHP Colin
Rea, Chicago Cubs
Coming Off Surgery
LHP John
Mean, s (club option), Cleveland Guardians
LHP Jordan
Montgomery, Milwaukee Brewers
RHP
Griffin Canning, New York Mets
RHP Jose
Urquidy (club option), Detroit Tigers
Frankie Montas
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6554746/2025/08/14/frankie-montas-bullpen-demotion-mets/
Montas’
poor performance has relegated him to a multi-inning reliever, with top
pitching prospect Nolan McLean coming up from Triple A to take his spot in the
rotation Saturday.
“I’m taking this as a way to motivate me to work on whatever I need to work on and get better,” Montas said. “At the end of the day, I wasn’t pitching the way I wanted to. It wasn’t because of health issues or whatever. It’s just needing to get better at executing pitches, hitting my spot, learning how my pitches play. These last two weeks, I’ve been putting a lot of emphasis on working on whatever it is I need to improve.”
Top 25 potential MLB free agents
for 2025-26
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6554757/2025/08/15/mlb-free-agents-2025-26-offseason/
Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
(opt out)
Age: 30
Bats: R Throws: R
OPS+: 150
WAR: 3.0
Alonso, the Mets’ new all-time home run leader, is
beloved in Queens, and the feeling is mutual. But there’s no doubt he will opt
out of his contract with the Mets — he signed a two-year, $54 million deal last
winter — with the hope that this offseason they reward him with a longer-term
contract. If they don’t, I believe this time around he won’t be as open to
signing another short-term contract and will instead go to a team that’s
willing to offer him a long-term commitment. He currently leads the NL in RBIs
(99), ranks fifth in homers (28) and is seventh in OPS (.884).
Examining
Nolan McLean's MLB Debut - lancebroz@substack.com
Mets Nolan McLean looked good in his debut (5.2 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 8 K, 60% strikes). His release height averaged 5.1’, lower than 89% of MLB arms, and he’s further toward third base horizontally on his release than 98% of MLB arms. His mix features six pitches (SK - 95 mph, 4S, SL, SWP, SPL, CU), with the most distinct feature being his spin capacity. He averaged 3,279 rpm on his curveball, which is the highest-spin breaking ball in MLB. Spin creates the capacity for (magnus) movement and more “paths” from a pitch development standpoint. Against righties in the minors, he threw ~65% sinker-sweeper. Against lefties, he mixed all six of his pitches 10% or more. In his debut yesterday, he threw 60%+ curveball and sweeper to lefties, a deviation from his minor league approach, where he threw a combined 35% curveball and sweeper.
One of the
more interesting characteristics of his mix is his sweeper’s 56% zone rate (45%
is average). He unsurprisingly crushed righties (23% K-BB, 15% is average), but
my focus in his first taste of the majors is how he fares against lefties,
where his K-BB rate is more average. I think the depth of his mix provides
different paths against off-hand hitters. The path he took in his debut was
breaking stuff, which resulted in four walks to lefties. We’ll see where he
goes from here. I’m in the process of rebuilding my top 40 pitching prospects
list, and McLean is hard to keep outside of the top 10.
Thomas
Nestico @TJStats
Daily
tjStuff+ Leaders
2025-08-16
Min. 50
Pitches
1) Dylan Cease - 109
2) Luis Morales - 108
3) Nolan McLean – 106
TJStats -
MLB Top 100 Prospects: August 2025
87) Brandon Sproat - RHP - NYM
The Good
Sproat has
excelled at supressing contact this season with a large portion of that coming
from his sinker. He has a deep arsenal which has gradually transformed
throughout the season, and he is seeing more success lately.
The Bad
After
consistently hitting 100 MPH just a year ago, it feels like Sproat's elite
velocity is more of a novelty than a staple. He also does not have a true put
away offering, which his hamper his strikeout upside.
22 comments:
Great article! Don’t worry about Sproat’s velocity, I think they’re having him pitch without going full throttle, similar to how Tong was mostly 93-95, until his promotion to Syracuse. When Alvy got to Syracuse, Sproat’s 1St start w him was full of 97 and 98 and a few 99 and 101. K’s are down because they told him to work on pitching to contact and become more efficient w his pitch counts so he doesn’t become Tidwell 2.0
I think i still have hope for Brett Baty as the full time 3B. Vientos would have to be the DH and I dont know if Mets wamt to go that route.
Sproat was dynamite last night. He does puzzle.
Santucci and Peterson in the same rotation? Manaea foul be expendable mid-to-end of 2026.
Baty seems to be elevating, Vientos resuscitating, Mauricio abating. They have 5 weeks left to make their case.
We can’t decide on Alonso or Bregman until after the next 35 games have been put in the books. I’d honestly prefer to see Benge and Jett starting for the Mets on opening day and begin the transition to youth. Have a rotation with Sproat, McLean and Tong, with Scott and Santucci joining the staff early in 2026. Ewing and Morabito mid-2026. They might not win, but it would be fun. Get under the cap.
Foul was meant to be “would”. My tablet lovesfoul balls.
Baty
Second half of season:
.285
Interesting
Remember
If you get rid of players with existing contracts the money you eat still is part of your team salary that year
I still think that Mauricio has the most upside potential of the three young potential third basemen. He is now where Baty was a year or two ago, having his flaws exposed and exploited. Once Ronny makes the necessary adjustments, his power will win everyone over.
Tom, good to see you coming around to my way of thinking about the youth movement. Next year is really the only time in the near future to get under the luxury tax.
This is a head scratcher. Why would everyone keep clamoring for Bregman (sorry Mack) at 45M per when we have Alonso.
An argument was made the other day about aging right handed hitters. Pete is home grown and will cost much less in terms of money and years. I know Bregman is a better all around hitter but Pete's production in terms of HR and RBI is better.
Paul, I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I'm just not on board with Mauricio's overall lack of baseball instincts, he's also pathetic as a right handed hitter.
Joe P, Mauricio is simply NOT a switch hitter. He needs to drop righty. Most players are not switch hitters. Neither is he. He just pretends to be one.
I wonder if the Mets could buy out Montas, pay him 75% of what he is owed, and let him peddle his wares elsewhere?
Does Alonso play 3B?
His agent would never go for that
Career, Ronny in MLB is 11 for 80 with 4 walks and 31 Ks righty. But .284/.346/.456 righty. Always a much better hitter in the minors as a lefty. Drop the righty nonsense. You switch hit when it BENEFITS you. The stats tell the tale.
I would love to hear how fans would feel if Stearns went all youth: all the young pitchers and let Alonso and Bregman go and bring up Jett with the three Baby Mets?
Me too. I was allowing for Alonso based on pressure from the fans. Maybe a reliever. The rest all youth.
I agree with Ernest, above. I see Baty as having likely turned the corner. 14 HR in 290 AB’s this season is a 25-30 HR pace. And he looks at least average at 3B. It will be interesting to see if the FO views Vientos as a good DH-mostly option. They might if he continues hitting through the end of the year. And I do think they’re-sign Pete. I can’t see another team going 5 yrs at the money he’ll want. I think we get him back for 4/$120 or 5/$140m.
I too would like to see Benge starting in CF on OD. I’m pretty sure that Mauricio will have an option remaining, so it wouldn’t surprise to see he and Williams start the year in Syracuse as next men up.
Mack,
Regarding baseball broadcasting, I think ESPN has the worst broadcasting team of any crew. I do not watch the Mets to hear players/ managers interviewed during the game while the action on the field is totally disregarded. Giving players microphones to discuss their favorite meals and hobbies while playing in the field taking away from the game as far as I am concerned. So no on ESPN. I pay for MLB network for the Mets games and am pleased. The only drawback is having to listen to the other teams announcers and not Keith, Ron and Gary.
You.are spoiled with KRG
I don't have the luxury of SNY or WPIX down here in the Carolinas so I have to gag thru the dribble on ESPN
I watch all Mets games on SNY and PIX here in NC through Directv. Also, Baty is my present and future 3B. As a team we need to be younger, cheaper and more athletic. I would consider trading Mauricio.
Great Article
How come it seems that there is more love for a guy like Jack Wenninger over Jonathan Santucci.
I would think the Lefty trumps here but I dont know enough about Jack.
I love to preach maximize value, We may have already wasted that opportunity with the baby mets, but I wouldnt be so quick to just throw them away. They are all cheap and to me far and away provide more value than fan favorite name "Acuna"
I would however look for outside solution for 3b but in a trade market. I could be tempted to go Arrenado if the money/ prospects make sense until a better solutions can be found.
to me in the off season sterns makes his money by
1. trading our bad contracts (Nimmo, Manaea at the top of the list) If correa's can be traded why cant we off load.
nimmo makes 20 million per (pay down 5) he is a 15 million dollar player
Manaea makes 25 million (pay down 7) i mean even montas make 17
We need to reset the Luxury cap
2. Figure out the Alonso situation once and for all - 4 years max or the Japanese player
3. Figure out the Bullpen
4. create the lanes for the prospects
Eddie has an excellent plan to consider.
Santucci was drafted # 46, Wenninger # 186. On that alone, I’d lean towards Santucci. And he has been terrific since early May. If I can pick only one, it is Santucci.
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