MACK - MY Sunday Observations - Jonah Tong, Jett Williams, Spin Efficiency, Elian Pena, Randy Guzman, Antonio Jiminez, Nolan McLean, Jim Marshall

 

Morning Thoughts 

Let me say this…

I wasn’t totally thrilled with the Friday Night Tong Show. Sure, the kid deserved a shot after his meteoric journey through the Mets affiliates this season. He pitched to a 1.59-ERA this season for AA-Binghamton and his last five games at AAA-Syracuse produced… wait… he only pitched in TWO GAMES at this level. This kind of Gooden-ish approach sort of set up a sink or swim scenario and, frankly, all it produced was a thread water situation.

In my opinion, there were far too many Whiffs, the fastballs either didn’t hit their mark or produce hitting the catcher mitt. So many balls. So many foul balls.

Let an associate of mine also explain this in a more analytical manner:

           Lance Brozdowski          lancebroz@substack.com

Mets Jonah Tong went 5 IP, 6 H, 4 R, ER, 6 K in his MLB debut. Tong was heavy fastball, slider, and curveball in this game, throwing just one slider. His four-seam ran a 36% whiff rate in the minors, exactly double that of the 18% average in MLB. In his debut, however, he generated just two whiffs on 59 four-seamers thrown. His location was pretty biased toward his glove side (away from righties). You can argue he was pulling the ball most of the night compared to his Triple-A locations, where he’s been more central to up. His changeup acted as his primary pitch to both left- and right-handed hitters Friday, which is a new development this season. He’s had an innate ability to zone the pitch in the minors and still draw an exceptional number of whiffs (51% whiff rate, 32% is average).

Even with the platoon nature of the changeup, I do think a key to his development is figuring out his slider shape. He’s toggled between a few iterations over the last calendar year, presently throwing one that averaged 87 mph with 5” vertical break and 5” glove-side movement, an average shape from his extremely vertical slot. I don’t think he’s as good as Nolan McLean, but his results are undeniable, even if they weren’t as loud as Tolle’s in this first taste of big league hitters.

I have previously vented about how Mendoza & Co. mis-handled this uber-prospect in the fifth inning, so I I am not going into this again.

To me, Tong was rushed into a situation to help a rotation that was bleeding badly and first saw a shot of adrenaline from his fellow prospect, Nolan McLean. Did it work? Err… sort of. Did he survive it? Definitely, yes. And has he solidified his position in the Mets rotation, going forward? 

Err… 

Pitch Profiler                     @pitchprofiler

Jonah Tong has a BIG TIME FASTBALL

 

Thomas Nestico             @TJStats

Jonah Tong made his MLB debut!

Tong fired off 5.0 IP with 6 K and 1 ER as he sat down the Marlins with his elite fastball and changeup combo. His curveball has a key contributor, helping him generate a handful of whiffs

Congratulations to my fellow Canadian!

Prospect Live –

2025 Top 100 Prospects: End-of-Season Update

https://www.prospectslive.com/2025-top-100-prospects-end-of-season-update/?s=03

43. Jett Williams, SS/2B/OF

Scouting Report

Jett Williams could have been a part of the Mets' playoff push had it not been for a right wrist injury that sidelined him for a chunk of the season. Wrist injuries are notorious for sapping power, which was the case for Williams in 2024. Fortunately, power isn't his primary asset. What's particularly exciting about Williams is his transition to center field, a shift that pushes him up the defensive spectrum. While the Mets initially seemed to be grooming him for second base, his double-plus speed and ability to get great routes and jumps should make him a standout in the outfield. Offensively, the wrist injury affected his power output this year, but Williams doesn't profile as a thumper even at full health. His game is built around his speed and ability to slap the ball into gaps, taking advantage of his wheels to cause havoc on the basepaths. His swing is notably flat and linear, enabling him to effectively handle pitches throughout the zone. Williams projects as an ideal, old-school leadoff hitter, a guy who will excel in getting on base, wreaking havoc with his legs, and playing solid defense in center field. While his power might max out at 12-15 homers in his peak years, his speed, defensive versatility, and disciplined approach will more than make up for the lack of pop, making him a valuable piece for the Mets' future. - Rhys White

pitchLogic by F5 Sports                   @pitchlogic

Spin efficiency is crucial as it influences a pitch's movement. It's the percentage of total spin that contributes to that movement. It matters because it enhances movement and maximizes effectiveness. If we throw a 4 seam fastball with 100% efficiency, it will "ride" longer.

Mets Prospect Group                   @bkfan09

Congratulations to Elian Pena for being named  Top MLB Prospect In The DSL Prospect

 

Ernest Dove                   @ernestdove

As a whole the Low A St. Lucie Mets bats were quiet last night, but 20 year old prospect Randy Guzman was 1 for 3 w/ a double.

I'm told Guzman "Walked in a leader day one" and is considered an important piece of their offense.

Has played 1B RF LF & 4 gm 3B in FCL this season.

                Mack –

Randy Enmanuel Guzman, born April 19, 2005, in Tenares, Dominican Republic, is a 20-year-old outfielder and first baseman in the New York Mets' minor league system.

Standing at 6'4" and weighing 215 pounds, he bats and throws right-handed.

Currently active with the Single-A St. Lucie Mets, Guzman has shown promise in his first stateside season.

Notably, on July 29, 2025, he hit an RBI double, contributing to St. Lucie's 10-5 victory over the Jupiter Hammerheads, part of an eight-game winning streak.

He was promoted from the Florida Complex League (FCL) Mets, where he also performed well.

 

Ernest Dove               @ernestdove

After breaking in as a pro baseball player for 2 games in July going 0 for 7. Mets 3rd rd pick Antonio Jimenez in August is hitting .271 with a .365 OBP with a BB/K of 9/9.

                Mack –

Antonio Andres Jimenez, born June 15, 2004, in Hialeah, Florida, is a 21-year-old shortstop in the New York Mets' minor league system. Standing at 6'1" and weighing 200 pounds, he bats and throws right-handed. Drafted by the Mets in the third round (102nd overall pick) of the 2025 MLB Draft out of the University of Central Florida, Jimenez signed for a $564,000 bonus.

In his 2025 college season at UCF, he hit .329/.407/.575 with 14 doubles, 2 triples, 11 home runs, 51 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases in 55 games, earning a spot on the Brooks Wallace Player of the Year Award Watch List. His strikeout rate improved from 30% in 2024 at the University of Miami to 19% in 2025, though his aggressive swing decisions remain a concern for pro ball.

Defensively, Jimenez is a true shortstop with smooth actions, soft hands, above-average range, and a plus-plus arm, capable of 100 MPH throws across the diamond.

Currently active with the Single-A St. Lucie Mets, Jimenez is ranked No. 18 on MLB Pipeline’s Mets Top 30 prospects list, with a 60-grade arm on the 20-80 scouting scale. No 2025 minor league stats are available yet, as he’s early in his professional career.

Lance Brozdowski         lancebroz@substack.com

Mets Nolan McLean continues the legendary start to his career. I gave you my thoughts on him when he debuted, and my main takeaway was wondering what would happen with his lefty approach. Welp, we have our answer. At Triple-A he threw six pitches 10% or more, leading mostly with his four-seam and sweeper. In the majors, we’re seeing more sinker and curveball, the latter jumping from 13% to 22% usage and posting a repertoire-best 20% swinging-strike rate.

MetsRewind                           @metsrewind

Who is the oldest living Mets player? Jim Marshall. We are lucky to have a franchise that still has some of its original team living and healthy!