Reese Kaplan -- Who Will Be In the 2026 Mets Starting Rotation?

As we continue our exploration of the 2026 Mets after this rollercoaster 2025 season where August is starting to resemble June.  The numerous pitching injuries have certainly made for interesting times, but it’s time to have a look at who will, who may and who may not be a member of the roster once next season begins. 

Starting Pitching

Going into 2026 there are already six veteran starting pitchers available to start the season:

• Kodai Senga — When healthy, Kodai Senga is a remarkably talented pitcher who is still under Mets contract for the seasons of 2026 and 2027 at a $15 million rate.  The Mets hold a team option at the same rate for 2028.  For what he delivers that is a bargain price. 
• Sean Manaea — His health and pitching performance in 2025 were not quite what David Stearns and Steve Cohen had in mind when he was returned to the Mets on a new $25 million per year contract.  He is slated to be around next year and 2027 as well. 
• Clay Holmes — The experiment of closer-turned-starter has been mostly a very good piece of scouting and gamble.  He earns $13 million this year and will receive the same in 2026 along with a player option for $12 million for 2027.  Right now Holmes is still pitching to a respectable 3.46 ERA despite some struggles lately as his innings workload has already exceeded what he’s done working out of the pen.
• David Peterson — The born-again top notch starter earning $4.625 million this year while being outstanding in both 2024 and 2025.  Come 2026 Peterson is arbitration eligible while potential free agency arrives the following year in 2027.  The Mets are going to have to think long and hard about what type of contract offer will buy out that free agency as he’s still young, sub 3.00 in ERA and left handed.
• Frankie Montas — For every Clay Holmes success story comes a counterpoint and if Montas was simply cut loose no one would cry except the accountants in the front office who have to write off the $17 million he’s due next season as well.  Instead, the Mets might be able to peddle him away by paying down a huge chunk of his salary to another club in need of a veteran hurler who has the same crazy optimism that Stearns had when he quizzically signed him for two years. 
• Tylor Megill — While I’ve never been a big fan of the highly inconsistent Megill, he only earns $1.975MM in 2025.  That number will go up in 2026 and 2027 when he first time gains arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent in 2028.  He has a career ERA of 4.46 (which is actually even worse than Montas) though he’s had some issues staying healthy as well as maintaining consistency. 

Free Agents To Be

• Griffin Canning — Perhaps the most truly shocking performance in 2025 from any of the Mets starting pitchers belongs to the career mediocrity of Canning which transformed into a 7-3 record with a 3.77 ERA.  Unfortunately he’s had TJS and will be done for 2026 as well.
• Paul Blackburn — Among David Stearns’ questionable moves was the 2024 mid season acquisition by trade of Blackburn.  Between his health issues and horrific performances it would be expected the Mets without a QO will allow him to walk out the door into free agency when his $4.05 million contract expires at the end of this season. 

Mostly Untested AAA Pitchers

• Christian Scott — TJS recovery should put him back into the prospective arms for the 2026 rotation, though his first five starts with a 3.90 ERA were way better than the 5.45 ERA that followed until it was revealed that his injury was likely impacting his performance.
• Dom Hamel — The newest arrival to Queens owns a minor league career record that is not all that impressive.  He owns a 27-23 won-loss record, a cumulative 4.66 ERA and a relatively high WHIP of 1.366.  He does fan 10.5 per 9 IP but also gives up over 4 walks during the same interval.  At age 24 his prospect window is probably shutting.
• Brandon Sproat — The once stellar AA prospect has regressed a bit in AAA, but he still owns a 13-9 minor league won-loss record, a nice 3.71 ERA while striking out not quite three times as many batters as he walks.  His WHIP is nice at 1.188 and it would appear at age 24 he has potential to get promoted to the big club. 
• Nolan McLean == Many folks are clamoring to have David Stearns promote 24 year old McLean to the Mets given their struggles with starting pitching.  Over his career he is just 12-15, but with a great 3.11 ERA.  In Syracuse he’s improved to an ERA under 2.50 and the control has improved considerably.  If not in 2025 he will certainly get a look for 2026. 

The Mets have a number of impressive candidates in the lower minor leagues, but unlike the early promotions of such players as Doc Gooden and Jenry Mejia it is highly unlikely to expect David Stearns to reach down to snag Jonah Tong and teammates without first giving them some time in AAA.