8/9/25

Tom Brennan - DeMayo vs. Brennan Top 30 Prospect Lists Compared; Fast Healers

So, here is my mid-season minors top 30… 

I recently noted the following about traded-away Mets prospects:

“Whom did our David trade away? Best way perhaps is to see how the traded guys rank in their new organizations’ top 30 prospects.”

Jesus Baez  -   # 6

Blade Tidwell - #12

Drew Gilbert - #13

Nate Dohm - # 15

W. Aracena - # 22

Tony Nunez - # 24

(SPOILER ALERT: JUST READ THIS: Drew Gilbert has been called up by the San Francisco Giants.  The outfielder hit .500 with a double and two triples in five games with Triple-A Sacramento before being promoted on Aug. 8 by the Giants, who acquired him from the New York Mets in a July 30 trade deadline deal.

Gilbert debuted Aug. 8 against the Washington Nationals, hitting ninth in the Giants' 5-0 win. He went 0-for-4 with a strikeout.)

BACK TO MY ARTICLE:

Chandler Marsh - not in top 30; high octane Raimon Gomez fascinating, but outside his new team’s top 30 too, as is Salty Elissalt. 

That’s a lot of painful movement out of the Top 30.

Nonetheless, the Mets’ post-trades Top 30 list, looks strong.  

If they had all stayed, it would have been VERY strong.

But David went shopping and had to pay heavily for his purchases.


Joe DeMayo of SNY post just his updated Top 30; his listed names are as  follows, with my brief comments added.  

I do largely agree with his list, I’ll say that up-front. Where I differ, I’ll say so.

1. INF/CF Jett Williams

Described by Joe as “the well-built 5-foot-6 Williams”, I am nervous about how high a ceiling there realistically is for short guys, even highly athletic ones like Jett.

 I have him therefore at # 5, not # 1, which is not a slight, because the next four dudes below that I rank before Jett are pretty exceptional.

2. RHP Jonah Tong

Tong is my co-number-one. He is simply terrific.  Take out his first 2 season outings in cold weather, and whose minor league pitching numbers anywhere are better?  No one’s. 11 earned runs in his last 88 innings (1.12 ERA), 154 Ks in 97 innings, just 47 hits allowed, and just 5 HRs in 210 innings over his last 2 seasons.  Good golly, Miss Molly.

3. OF Carson Benge

Benge is doing incredible. He is a co-number-one.

4. RHP Nolan McLean

McLean, had he not tried to be a two-way player in the first half of 2024, slightly slowing his pitching development, would be in the majors already.  Outstanding starter,and a co-number-one.  AAA hitters hate facing him.

5. RHP Brandon Sproat

Sproat has re-emerged with a vengeance…last 6 AAA starts, 39 IP, just 5 earned runs. Wow.  My last of four co-number-one prospects.

I simply cannot, as I write this, decide which of any one of the four is the best. Those 4 are each great. If I had to, I’d rank them 1 through 4 in the order presented.

6. 1B Ryan Clifford

Clifford has accelerated, yet I would flip him here to #7 with Elian Peña moving to # 6 - Elian has greatly accelerated at a younger age and lower level.

I think, though, that Clifford reads my articles…essentially…

”OK, you’ve proved you can walk a lot, now ATTACK!”

And he has. And his average and HRs are rising.

Keep attacking, Ryan. You are my # 7. 

From here on out, please be the next Nick Kurtz.  Attack.

7. SS Elian Peña

Peña has hit great after his 3 for 45 head scratcher start.  I can give you 5 million reason$ why he will be great in 2-3 years. He is my # 6.

Next year at this time? # 1?

8. 3B Jacob Reimer

I hope he is a # 8. By this time next season, we will know much better.  His 2024 hammy injury destroyed that year of development. Strong bounce-back 2025, adjusting now to AA pitching. I could have easily slid him down to 10, because his hitting has chilled quite a bit for a while now, but I will stay at 8. Anyone can (and will) incur a slump from time to time.

9. OF A.J. Ewing

Ewing is going to be a 21-year-old in 2026, and is a high-on-base,base-swiping machine. He is top 5 a year from now.

10. LHP Jonathan Santucci

I love Santucci the Superb.  Doubts that others have about Santucci, I do not have.  Rising like a rocket. Top 5 in 2026.

11. RHP Jack Wenninger

Wenninger has been terrific. Deservedly deserves # 11.

12. INF Boston Baro

I’d have him below Nick Morabito, who I’d move up here to # 12.

Boston could be very good, but 2025 has been a bit of a (inclining) struggle.

13. OF Eli Serrano III

I’d have him below Nick Morabito, too.  Could be very good, but 2025 has been a bit of a struggle. More pop than Nick, but Nick is fast and hits better.

14. RHP Will Watson

Very, very promising, but I’d have him below Nick Morabito. I like Nick more.

15. OF Nick Morabito

Morabito started 2025 frigidly, but has been great since.  He WILL add power. Steals bushels-full of bases.  He is my # 12.

16. C/1B/OF Chris Suero

Suero has speed, power, clutch hitting, and versatility including catching. Can he hit high caliber pitching? Probably well enough.  But I switch him below Mitch Voit, at # 17.

17. 2B Mitch Voit

Voit was the Mets first pick in the 2025 MLB Draft and I give deference to that in ranking him over Suero, even with Voit’s early slow start in St. Lucie.  My # 16 is Mitch Voit.

18. INF Marco Vargas

DeMayo wrote this: “Vargas was the headlining return of the David Robertson trade back in 2023. At one time he was a top 10 prospect in the system, but missed most of last year with a wrist issue and his 2025 has been just solid. He has above average bat-to-ball and pitch recognition skills but really does not impact the baseball at all. He is a solid athlete who has played around the infield and has stolen 33 bases. He probably projects more as a backup infielder type, if his hit tool carries him through the upper minors.” 

So…that I agree with entirely, but I push him down to # 22, a property level for a future utility MLB guy.

19. RHP Dylan Ross

Ross  is a high power reliever. K Machine.  # 19 works for me.

20. INF Trey Snyder

Snyder has fine tools and speed. We will see the real Trey Snyder in the minors in 2026. Very young.

21. RHP Ryan Lambert

Lambert, another fireballing reliever with toughness, will be a real factor in the Mets pen in 2026.

22. RHP Jonathan Pintaro

NOT in my top 30. Close, though. Older guy, hope he surprises me.

I put Zach Thornton here at # 22.

23. C Yovanny Rodriguez

A gut feeling he should be at # 18. But I will leave him at # 23.

Great year in the DSL. But it is the DSL. 33 games, .337/.469/.495.

24. LHP Zach Thornton

Thornton is my # 22. Brendan Girton has been super in Brooklyn in 2025, and the overlooked Girton is my # 24.

25. C Daiverson Gutierrez

Gutierrez’s defense at catcher has been weak.  I like him more at # 30, or slightly below.

Here instead at # 25 I LOVE Randy Guzman, thank you very much. I gave a good feeling about Dandy Randy. Hitting well, low Ks.

26. INF Jeremy Rodriguez

Rodriguez has disappointed this year, or he’d be higher than # 26.

27. OF Edward Lantigua

Lantigua has much competition from some DSL hitters not named Peña or Yovanny, but I like him at # 27.

28. RHP Peter Kussow

“Kussow is the only other 2025 draft pick to crack this list as a fourth round pick out of high school in Wisconsin.”  So says Joe. I will defer to Joe on this slot for Kussow.

29. RHP Douglas Orellana

Orellana deserves to be in this list at Joe’s # 29.

30. RHP Jace Hampson

“Hampson was the Mets’ 18th round pick out of high school in Washington state in the 2024 draft.”  So notes Joe.

I’d take a flier instead on Yunior Amparo (.339/.451/.496, with just 14 whiff in his first 42 games in the DSL) at # 30. He is having a very fine DSL season.  But the leap to the FCL is huge for many. And DSL stats are poor projectors.  The league’s top two (non-Mets) on base guys have incredible on base percentages in the .540’s, so how good exactly is Amparo’s .451?

Or even at # 30 a Franklin Gomez, a lefty mostly in St Lucie this year, but in Brooklyn, too, who, at age 20, is 3-2, 1.89 ERA in 57 innings spanning 9 starts and 7 relief outings.  Who doesn’t love 1.89?

Bonus baby Simon Juan at age 22 hit .219 at St Lucie, with 7 HRs and 89 Ks in 274 at bats, and no promotion to Brooklyn, so he ranked is somewhere between 31 and 40, perhaps. Colin Houck, first rounder, hit better before his promo to Brooklyn, but Brooklyn has been a .168 experience for him in 107 at bats, with 40 Ks, so I have him somewhere in the 31-40 range, too. Probably closer to 40 than 30.

And Kevin Parada, who in mid-May-was hitting a gosh-awful .122 in 82 at bats, but as of April 7 had doubled that to .244. He also, since that .122 nadir, has driven in 37 runs in 174 at bats. I’d have him in the very low 30s.  He might well deserve to be in the 20s.

I will get into more detail on prospects in the off-season.

Tell me who I missed. 

(No, no, Drew Gilbert is gone. He is 6 for his first 12 with 4 walks in the PCL, though. Out from under the Mets’ cloud?)

You can read Joe DeMayo’s final full listing and narratives here:

https://sny.tv/articles/mets-midseason-top-30-prospects-2025


WAIT….SOME GUYS RETURN FASTER THAN EXPECTED?

This injured Seattle player is way ahead of schedule.  Who is the last Mets injured player you can name that healed way ahead of schedule?

“Outfielder Victor Robles (left shoulder dislocation) continued to work out with the team pregame and is scheduled to start a rehab assignment on Aug. 12 with Tacoma. 

“He’s way ahead of schedule,” Hollander said. “He’s missed like four months of baseball so it’s not going to be a weekend (rehab) and then go play again. He’s going to need 40 to 50 at-bats at least. Really excited to get Vic back out there running around. He’s worked his butt off to get to this point and endured a lot.””


32 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Both of you have Thornton too low

If you communicate with Joe ask him to please unblock me

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, as I wrote earlier this week, I believe Stearns had a bad year in some respects starting with the off season. While we keep reminding about the Montas signing, he was right in Alonso and Manaea, and Canning. He was also wrong on Blackburn, and keeping prospects down for some reason.

TexasGusCC said...

Why trade for Mullins when you have McNeil doing well? Why pay that much freight to San Fran for Tylor Rogers? Soto was good. Helmsley was good.

TexasGusCC said...

Stearns claims he doesn’t read the newspapers, yet his moves are always responding to heat from Sherman and Heyman. He has to let those blowhards go.

Tom Brennan said...

Gus, truth. If the Mets were excelling after the trade deadline, that would make the moves more palatable. This feels like Kazmir for Zambrano. The Mets got fleeced by Frisco…and the Giants have done what I would have done in July…called up Gilbert. Could he be any worse than Taylor? And, if Gilbert faltered, option him down and call up Acuna or Jett.

nickel7168 said...

Tom, who do you have at #18?

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, I have no communications with Joe D. I am not even sure he has ever read my articles.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, one could definitely make the case to swap Thornton up to # 13 from # 22 to switch with Serrano III.

Rds 900. said...

Don't we all love the trade for Mullins, instead of keeping Gilbert?

Tom Brennan said...

Nickel, Good question. I should have made a list to ensure no gaps.

I’d put Yovanny at # 18, as suggested by me in my article, and move Franklin Gomez up to # 23.

I initially overlooked Gomez, and he deserves to be in the Top 30, based on performance this year.

I really like the way Yovanny is consistently raking in the DSL…while it is only the DSL, it gives me a strong feeling that he will thrive in the FCL next year, and get a mid year promo in 2026 to St Lucie. Gutierrez, I am nervous about.

Mack Ade said...

Honestly, I can't figure out who Stearns listens to right now

Mack Ade said...

some great people have me blocked

Joe DeMayo
Jacob Resnick
Hunter Biden
George Washington
Mark Healy
Attila The Hun
St. Peter
Ru Paul
Lassie

Mack Ade said...

Gonna regret this one

Tom Brennan said...

I am nervous about Gutierrez not for his bat, but for his glove: 21 errors and only 22 of 149 base stealers caught this year in 69 games behind the plate. That is simply sub par. Is that fixable? I guess we will find out. Alvarez at the same age made 12 errors in 59 games and threw out 19 of 88, also not good, but much better than Gutierrez.

Tom Brennan said...

I think Benge will be much better than Gilbert. I would pencil Benge in for 2026. Screw slow-walking people. Jett, too.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, Maxine Waters blocked you, too. I didn’t want to tell you that and hurt your feelings.

nickel7168 said...

you have both Vargas & Thornton at #22...thank you for the list

Tom Brennan said...

Our problem is Citi Field is in AOC’s district. We need to be redistricted immediately.

Tom Brennan said...

Yeah, I rushed it and did not do a numbers test. I had a feeling my numbers were a bit mixed up. Thanks for pointing that out. I will do a more seriously vetted top 30 in the off season.

RVH said...

Mullins is 1/17 with a walk since joining Mets. Looked lost last night in Milwaukee. Why can’t we ever seem to strike gold? Relievers did look good last night though.

Mack Ade said...

I agree in the long run but Mets should have promoted this guy two weeks ago and DFAd Taylor

Mack Ade said...

He is a defensive liability

Mack Ade said...

I know Maxine Waters

Maxine Waters is a friend of mine

You're no ...

Mack Ade said...

Tom is guilty of a numbers racquet

Mack Ade said...

She really blocked me too

JoeP said...

Mack, in response to one of your earlier comments, until Stearns stops believing he is the smartest man in the room philosophy he will continue to make major mistakes. This will be his undoing.

While, for every good find of his where you think he is brilliant, he comes up with a klunker. He also jumps the gun and overpays (Montas, Blackburn) and seems to give up too much in trades.

I do like the way he is setting up the organization for the future, regarding the labs, but he has to commit to one direction. He is currently all over the place in which direction he is going.

Eddie from Corona said...

Too much juice here for one comment
So in my opinion….
I will say I (as I often do) I don’t believe in players being rushed …

Football is a contact sport,
Boxing, wrestling MMA etc

Baseball (HS players face 90 plus miles a hours pitchers, they throw to batter who can hit back to them over 90 miles back at them and even with metal bats)

There is no contact.
Tennis players can compete at 16 with mature 30 old athletes

If a player excels bring them up

If your 25 as a rookie your too old to be great in my eyes

Bring them up aggressively
If they fail send them back
If they fold they would have folded anyway

Tom Brennan said...

But any delay, if a guy is really great, as Tong may be, lessens good MLB years and lessens HOF chances. I hate delay if a guy is ready. I think Sproat, McLean and Tong are ready. One big issue with Tong in his favor, in terms of a jump to the big leagues? Will he get lit up with long balls. He has surrendered just 5 in over 200 minors innings in 2024 and 2025…he will not become a launch pad.

Tong after his first 2 starts has allowed 4 hits per 9 innings, a sick #. Would he give up 12 per 9 at the big league level? No.

No more veteran starter signings…ever. The amount of time Senga, Manaea, and Montas have spent on injured lists in recent years is astounding. Old tires are prone to blow outs. And it is not just pitchers. WInker’s two injuries this year…do they happen if he is 5 years younger? No.

Call them up, and if they sputter, send them down.

I would rather have seen Benge than Mullins. Too fast? Nick Kurtz had 33 minor league games before stardom. Benge would have adjusted. Conforto did.

Tom Brennan said...

He is making boo boos. One is signing old guys for too long. How is that looking?

Rds 900. said...

I have Benge and Williams starting in 2026.

Tom Brennan said...

Ray, we agree

Tom Brennan said...

My # 25, Randy Guzman, is having another strong game today. GREAT in St Lucie sincehis promotion. My sense is he will soon rocket higher.