Paul Articulates – Anticipating the surge

There is no denying that it has been a rough stretch for the New Yorks Mets (and their fans).  So many things have gone wrong over the last six weeks, and it has not been possible to identify a single root cause that can be repaired.  The team has alternately gone through batting and pitching woes, and when those go right, the defense will struggle.

Baseball is a sport of ebbs and flows, and one could reasonably expect that any team is going to have bad stretches as well as good during a season.  The stretch the Mets have gone through seems like a real six sigma aberration, but it is not an indicator that the remainder of the season will be that bad.

So when it turns around (not if), what will it look like?  Let’s do some whimsical math to envision that path correction.  So far, the Mets have gone through 76% of their regular season games, with 24% to go.  Their players have underperformed to date, particularly at the plate.  So if the law of large numbers compels them to gravitate toward their career averages as hitters, how much better would they get?  The table below shows the primary players in the lineup this year along with their deficit to career averages.  It is stunning to see that only two players are doing better than average this year.

To recover to their career averages, players would have to perform at a rate that is four times their deficit, since there is only roughly one quarter of a season remaining.  This actually seems reasonable for some of the players – Jeff McNeil is currently under his career OPS by 2.4%, so would have to be 9.6% over his career OPS to finish the season.  He is already on a hot streak, so running a .870 over the last 39 games is feasible, especially if he has a power streak.  Where it gets unbelievable is in the case of Brandon Nimmo.  He would have to run a 1.091 OPS over those last 39 games – not something he has done before.

So while it is fun to imagine the explosion of power over the last several weeks that would come from a full reversion across the board, it is not likely to happen since all players do not compile an average season for all seasons.  What is likely is a surge, as some event – a blowout win, a player that catches fire and spreads the joy in the dugout, or whatever will spark this team.  When that comes, the players, the coaches, the city will all breathe a sigh of relief.

My hope is that the surge comes over the last month of the season.  This creates momentum for a run in the playoffs, and the paper roster would still suggest that this team is capable of a deep run.   Certainly, the players and coaches are not going to just wait for it to happen.  They are working their tails off to correct, improve, and heal.  Strong preparation can help to sustain a streak when/if it happens this year.